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Lewis Hamilton is favourite to take a record-extending 90th Formula 1 pole position in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix with Valtteri Bottas his main rival thanks to the supremacy of Mercedes.
But there are still some key questions to be answered in qualifying at the Hungaroring.
Racing Point’s front-row shot
Sergio Perez was only 0.161s off pacesetter Valtteri Bottas in FP3. While the Racing Point probably doesn’t have the pace to beat Mercedes if all extract the full potential of the car, Perez is set to be the one who is there waiting to capitalise from any problems for either Lewis Hamilton or Bottas.
The second row is the main objective and the big question is whether Lance Stroll can do what he rarely does and match Perez’s qualifying pace in dry conditions having lapped just over four-tenths behind his team-mate in FP3, allowing Charles Leclerc to split the Racing Points.
Red Bull battling aero struggles
Max Verstappen said he could tell a “beautiful story” about Red Bull’s hopes in Hungary but isn’t the sort of person to add hype in advance – and it looks like his pragmatism was wise.
After a difficult Friday, Red Bull broke curfew to continue working on the car – which appears to be back in pre-Austria nose/front wing specification as it bids to get its aerodynamic imbalance under control.
If its upgrades haven’t worked as planned, that’s a blow. And as Verstappen complained of understeer and was losing a lot of time on corner entries in FP3, there’s further evidence that Red Bull’s weakness is firmly on the aero side.
Ferrari is in better shape than in Austria
Sebastian Vettel was left mired in the midfield in final practice but Charles Leclerc’s effort suggests Ferrari could well be clear of the main midfield pack in Hungary.
That should at least give it the hope of not having a Q3-marginal car like it had in Austria, and should eradicate any lingering doubt that its engine is the biggest problem.
Perhaps the car itself isn’t as bad as feared. But the question is whether Ferrari has anything else left in the tank, or if it will be left behind as its midfield rivals crank up their qualifying modes.
Williams can be in Q2 again
George Russell made Q2 in the wet last weekend but has the pace to do so in the dry at the Hungaroring.
The twisty track configuration plays to the strengths of the car more than the Red Bull Ring, where its drag level proved costly, but Russell has shown that if he nails a lap he can be ahead of the Haas and Alfa Romeo drivers as well as team-mate Nicholas Latifi and perhaps even an AlphaTauri.
It will be tight, but a Q2 place on merit in the dry will say even more about the team’s progress than Russell’s wet success. Fourteenth place in FP2, less than four-tenths off a top 10 place, is a promising sign.
Only the rain could threaten Mercedes
With Mercedes the clear favourite for the front row in dry conditions, only the very real threat of rain could upset the applecart. While Lewis Hamilton’s consistent excellence in the wet means he is unlikely to drop the ball, mixed conditions, in particular, can create all sorts of chaos and increase the risk of missing the best of conditions or making a costly error.
Right now, extremes of weather are the best chance of breaking the Mercedes supremacy, but there’s no chance of the very hot temperatures that it feared hitting for qualifying.
