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The Formula 1 driver market never really stops, and on the eve of the 2021 season beginning the key players in the 2022 silly season are already clear.
Among the drivers who are central to the driver market storylines this year are those who must take a decision on their future and those who could be impacted by those choices – as well as those who have something to prove to hang onto their places.
The Race has selected the six drivers who will be central to this plotline. This doesn’t mean they are the only ones with a part to play, but the other question marks will be downstream with their opportunities – or lack thereof – dependent on what happens with the key players.
There are plenty of big names missing from this list, but unless there are curveballs – and nothing is impossible when it comes to the F1 driver market – the likes of Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz Jr, Fernando Alonso, Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris should be set fair for 2022.
Lewis Hamilton
Just as Hamilton’s future was the biggest driver-market talking point of last year, and the early weeks of 2021 before his one-year Mercedes deal was announced, it’s going to be key in 2022.
Hamilton himself is adamant that the decision on whether to continue next year is not dependent on success this season.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff insists that the decision on next season will come far earlier than it did for 2021 – something that will surely be enshrined in whatever complex contract has been drawn up.
Clearly, barring some unforeseeable slump in Hamilton’s performance this season, Mercedes will want to keep hold of the seven-time world champion.
The 36-year-old is still performing at a sky-high level and will be regarded as the lynchpin of its bid for success under arguably the biggest change in F1 technical regulations in 2022.
Hamilton’s decision will have huge downstream effects and could even have an impact on a driver not on our list: Max Verstappen.
While he is under contract to Red Bull and looks to have a car capable of challenging for the world championship this season, he would be the first choice for Mercedes to poach if possible if it needed a proven star should Hamilton walk away.
Valtteri Bottas
It’s Groundhog Day for Bottas, who heads into a fifth consecutive season with Mercedes without job security for the following year. But the uncertainty over Hamilton’s future means the situation is a little different.
Bottas has talked of having a “happy head” this year and his continuing determination to win the world championship.
That would certainly represent a compelling case for him to stay on, but seems unlikely given his previous form. This means that he could be at the mercy of Hamilton’s decision.
If Hamilton stays on, it seems probable that despite Bottas’s excellent service as his “wingman”, to use the word Wolff once used but that the Finn dislikes, George Russell will be brought in. But if Hamilton retires, Bottas could offer essential continuity.
Whatever happens, it’s going to be a tense wait for Bottas. His first choice will be staying at Mercedes, but if he does find himself without a Mercedes seat when the music stops, he should be in demand among the midfield teams.
George Russell
You can make a strong case that Russell is the most likely driver to be in a Mercedes driver next year. Given his superb performance as a stand-in at least year’s Sakhir Grand Prix and the fact he’ll have three years of experience, he’s the obvious choice for promotion.
If, somehow, Russell does not end up in a Mercedes then he could have an interesting decision to make.
Remaining at Williams wouldn’t be a ridiculous idea given the investment from Dorilton Capital and could be part of waiting for that Silver Arrows chance down the line.
But he is a well-regarded driver and would not be short of offers from elsewhere. Even Red Bull is known to hold him in high esteem and would be interested on the right terms.
Usually, a driver in a back-of-the grid team would have their work cut out to land a top drive, but Russell is currently in a very strong position for a driver who will spend most of the season outside of the top 10.
Sergio Perez
Perez’s big chance with Red Bull is currently only a one-year shot, so it’s down to him to prove himself worthy of a place in the team. There’s every chance he will do so after spending much of the past year as F1’s ‘King of the Midfield’.
If Perez fulfils his potential, he will stay on for 2022 and freeze out alternatives. But if he fails to do so, it will make one of the most coveted seats in F1 available, as well as potentially putting a very effective, and well-backed, driver back on the market – assuming, of course, he’s willing to take a step back into F1’s midfield.
But a strong first half of the season should lead to a relatively early confirmation for 2022 and close down those possibilities.
Pierre Gasly
Red Bull appears very reluctant to consider putting Pierre Gasly back into its main team, even if the possibility cannot be ruled out should Perez not work out.
But regardless of whether a Red Bull return is possible, if Gasly’s 2021 season is as strong as last year’s, he could be a big player in the F1 driver market.
Right now, Gasly is in a good place with AlphaTauri, a team that trusts him and that has extracted his potential in F1. But while he is the focal point of AlphaTauri, it’s always going to be the second Red Bull squad – despite all the rhetoric about it now being a sister team. So might he choose to swap that for an opportunity elsewhere given the chances of promotion to Red Bull racing seem slim?
He’s been extensively lined to a move to Alpine, which would be a logical fit and offer him a potentially upward-mobile team. And given his performances over the past 18 months, he could appeal to any of the teams that has a vacancy.
Esteban Ocon
Alpine, then in its Renault guise, brought in Esteban Ocon thanks to his reputation as a rising star and his nationality. But the latter won’t be enough to keep him at Alpine if he doesn’t convince alongside Fernando Alonso.
Ocon’s 2020 season as team-mate to Daniel Ricciardo was solid but no more than that. He claimed his first podium in the Sakhir Grand Prix and made good progress chipping away at the gap to Ricciardo and sharpening his way of working.
But it was inconclusive and he needs to build on that with Alonso on the other side of the garage to guarantee he can stay at the team in 2022.
Ocon could be among the drivers at the mercy of what happens with Mercedes. If Alpine wants to recruit a new driver, then Bottas would be a valid contender given his experience. And with Gasly extensively linked to Alpine, there is an alternative candidate who performed at a higher level last year and who also has the benefit of a French passport.
First and foremost, Ocon needs to make good on his potential in order to make such suggestions moot.
