A shock polesitter and four different Formula 1 teams in the top four positions creates a suitably intriguing set-up for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, given how dramatic qualifying became.
Around the four different red flags were a range of surprise outcomes that were at odds with expectations pre-qualifying, let alone coming into this weekend.
And with the ever-present threat of more accidents in the grand prix, Baku is yet again poised to produce a race with several key variables in play.
Will Leclerc be a one-lap wonder?
The Ferrari is certainly fast around the streets of Baku over a lap, but even if Charles Leclerc converts pole position into the lead the big question is whether he can hold on?
Much will depend on how well the Ferrari looks after its tyres over a race stint, given that looked to be a genuine concern during the Friday long runs.
The very strength that helped Ferrari be so competitive in qualifying, namely the slow-corner pace that allowed it to sacrifice wing to compensate for its power disadvantage, could work against it.
After all, less rear wing means working the tyres harder. Graining and accelerated degradation could be the result.
Leclerc himself said “it’s going to be difficult to keep these two behind me” of Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen during the post-qualifying press conference. But the Ferrari is quick on the straights so won’t be a total sitting duck.
“I think here the pace of the Red Bull in the long run is quicker, because we have more tyre degradation than them,” said Carlos Sainz Jr, who starts fifth.
“But if you start ahead here, it’s also difficult to pass. In sector two, it’s very difficult to follow. It’s a bit like Russia and Abu Dhabi.”
The straightline speed of the Ferrari is plenty good enough, although the long blast from Turn 15 to the first corner that encompasses a DRS zone is a great overtaking opportunity.
If those behind can get close enough in those conditions, a pass is certainly possible.
But ultimately, Leclerc’s chances will depend primarily on how the car treats the tyres.
Whatever happens, it will be, as Ferrari sporting director Laurent Mekies puts it, “a defensive race”.
What will Mercedes and Red Bull wing choices mean?
At Friday’s close of play, there was no way Mercedes was even competing with Red Bull, let alone qualifying a place ahead of it.
Mercedes was in trouble, Red Bull was flying high. But Baku’s conflicting layout always leaves room for surprises.
Why so? Because the Monaco middle sector and Monza sector 3 mean that there’s always a dilemma about wing choice. A skinny rear wing such as that run by Ferrari since FP2 or by Hamilton only in qualifying ultimately tends to give you a better single lap time.
A bigger one – such as that used by Red Bull or Valtteri Bottas for example – tends not to be that much slower over a lap but much better for the tyres in the race.
This is the only track on the calendar for which this is true. It becomes a particular dilemma for the team with genuinely the fastest car – because ideally, you want to run the bigger wing. But if one of the slower cars opts to go skinny, it leaves you vulnerable to being outqualified.
Friday practice confirmed Red Bull – with the bigger of its two available wings – had the fastest car. It’s expected rival Mercedes was struggling for tyre temperatures – another common difficulty around this place – in a car which is prone to just that.
Hence the last thing Mercedes wanted to do was run light on downforce. The best way of getting tyre temperature is to load the car with downforce.
But even with the downforce, Mercedes was still struggling – badly – for tyre temps. That seemed to be Red Bull’s chief rival taken care of.
The leftfield threat looked to be the super-skinny-winged Ferrari, a car with great low-speed corner performance and the ability to switch its tyres on brilliantly well. But which is a little draggy and underpowered on the straight.
That combination tempted Ferrari into that skinny wing after comparing the two on Friday. Which gave it decent straightline and still excellent low-speed – but at the expense of terrible rear tyre graining.
Red Bull used to get tempted by that skinny wing trick here. Back when it was under-powered. Its experience of this place includes Daniel Ricciardo putting the under-powered 2016 car on the front of the grid and chasing Nico Rosberg’s Mercedes for a few laps. But he was in the pits with destroyed rear tyres after six laps.
There’s no way Ferrari’s skinny wing exploits were going to tempt Red Bull into doing the same, not now that it is no longer under-powered.
What it couldn’t have anticipated was what Hamilton decided to do after FP3. Reasoning that even with the higher downforce wing the car still wasn’t generating the tyre temps – and so wasn’t even able to take advantage of that downforce through the tight middle sector – why not put on the skinny wing?
Mercedes was already slow through sector 2 (0.6s slower than Red Bull and Ferrari on Friday) even with the big wing – which wasn’t switching on the tyres. Let’s at least be fast down the straights.
So following the Ferrari route, and with a few accompanying tweaks, Hamilton finally got the Mercedes working. In qualifying. Add in Verstappen’s careless accident in FP3 which denied him getting his eye in running on the softs as he went into qualifying, the absence of a decent tow (Hamilton got his from Bottas) – and the red flag which thwarted Verstappen’s final attempt.
Hey presto, Red Bull with the fastest car qualified only third. Setting up a fascinating situation for the race.
Can Gasly split the big teams?
AlphaTauri driver Pierre Gasly, who qualified fourth, is the joker in the leading pack. The AT02 has been quick, consistent and confidence inspiring on the streets of Baku despite starting the year struggling in slow corners.
While Gasly would be delighted to be running fourth at the finish, he’s not going to be backward in coming forward when it comes to battling with the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers – although he might be a little more circumspect when it comes to his Red Bull stablemates.
“We are not fighting for anything, I’m not fighting for a championship and when you have a weekend where the car works well then you just need to use it and go for the best result possible,” said Gasly.
“We’ve got to be there at the finish, but at the same time we need to go aggressive and try to do the best job that we can.”
He has every chance of finishing ahead of the big-team drivers he starts ahead of – Sainz, Sergio Perez and Bottas – and can’t be discounted as a podium threat, especially if the race is as incident-packed as qualifying suggested it might be.
Is McLaren’s Sunday really ruined?
McLaren’s not had the most competitive car in the midfield this weekend, which team and driver say isn’t a surprise given they weren’t hyping their prospects up for Baku, others did that for them.
But lead driver Lando Norris lagging behind both Ferraris and an AlphaTauri on merit was a slightly disappointing result, especially as it followed Daniel Ricciardo crashing out in Q2.
It puts the third-placed team in the championship further down the order than at any race so far this season – a pain compounded by the three-place grid penalty Norris got for breaching red flag rules in qualifying.
Both McLaren and Norris have intimated it could seriously hurt their race.
Whether or not you agree with the decision (certainly the addition of three penalty points for an understandable moment of confusion seemed unwarranted), three places on the grid with how competitive it has been here is significant.
It means Norris is looking at a mega start/opening lap just to regain ground, rather than snipe at the leading positions like he has done at most races this season.
More importantly, it puts him behind a top car he’d have fancied his chances of racing with (Perez’s Red Bull) and two cars that will probably be slower during the race (Yuki Tsunoda’s AlphaTauri and Fernando Alonso’s Alpine).
Has it “ruined” their Sunday as Norris suggested it might? No, it’s too early for that. But it has made it more complicated and given the upper-midfield order a slight shake-up.
Will drivers tone down the spate of crashes?
Across free practice and qualifying there has been a high number of crashes, even by Baku/street circuit standards.
Lance Stroll, Antonio Giovinazzi, Ricciardo, Tsunoda and Sainz all ended up in the wall in qualifying, while even the likes of poleman Leclerc and Verstappen shunted earlier in the weekend.
Ex-F1 driver and Sky pundit Martin Brundle seemed to do his best to suggest something oddly technological was afoot, but the main reasons are simply the unforgiving nature of the Baku circuit and some changeable wind conditions.
It led Alonso to accuse several of his fellow drivers of pushing beyond the capabilities of either their cars or themselves. Ouch.
It’s unusual to see such disruption (four red flags in one qualifying session is impressive) and so many errors but that’s what this track can do. It bites.
But it’ll bite most in qualifying when drivers are on the limit. There’s every chance the race will pass without a single crunch of carbon fibre against concrete – even if someone does end up down an escape road at some point.
Should someone fall foul of the unforgiving walls, though, then the race could turn on its head. Sudden safety cars can ignite straightforward races almost instantly into chaotic affairs and Baku’s proven that more than any other track in recent years.
