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Though both Formula 1 titles are settled as the 2020 season nears its finish, there is still a lot up for grabs across the final triple-header of a bizarre year.
An epic tussle for ‘best of the rest’ in both championships is the headline attraction over two races in Bahrain and the final round in Abu Dhabi, but there are also important issues that will have a huge impact on 2021 to be settled as well.
Our F1 journalists Edd Straw and Scott Mitchell explain what’s at stake in F1’s Middle Eastern finale.
The battle for best of the rest
Fourth place in the drivers’ championship is still up for grabs, with three drivers separated by just four points at the front of that group.
Racing Point’s Sergio Perez leads the way with 100 points despite missing the two Silverstone races thanks to COVID-19 and is the form man having finished second in the last race in Turkey. He’s going to take some beating having finished every race he has started in the points, and especially given the pace of the RP20 ‘Pink Mercedes’.
But Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is only three points behind, with Renault driver Daniel Ricciardo only one further back.
Ferrari’s form has improved in recent races and Leclerc has been in the top five in each of the last three grands prix, while Renault’s fluctuating performance has led to Ricciardo’s pair of third places at the Nurburgring and Imola being offset by ninth in Portugal and 10th in Turkey.
You can make a case for all three drivers being the favourite, but there are also a few outsiders who could potentially get into contention if they pick up some big results.
McLaren drivers Carlos Sainz Jr (75) and Lando Norris (74) aren’t far off, although the team’s qualifying struggles recently mean it is a big ask.
And Red Bull’s Alex Albon can’t be counted out. While on 70 points, he has a car capable of being in the top four in every race and every motivation to deliver given his drive is under threat.
The battle to join the ‘big three’
Ferrari’s slump has given the leading midfield teams an unexpected opportunity to join F1’s ‘big three’ this season, with the battle for third in the constructors’ championship an intense one.
Over the past six races, the advantage in the battle for third has been passed from McLaren to Racing Point to Renault and back to Racing Point again – and even Ferrari has hauled itself back into more serious contention after bagging its best points haul of the season in Turkey.
Constructors’ championship
3 Racing Point, 155
4 McLaren, 149
5 Renault, 136
6 Ferrari, 130
Racing Point has the advantage and it’s important to note that it is ahead despite a 15-point deduction for illegally-designed brake ducts. But while McLaren’s pace has been shaky recently, it still keeps racking up good results thanks to Sainz and Norris.
Ricciardo declared Renault the “underdog” after its disastrous, one-point Turkish GP but given the car has shown prodigious pace lately the gap is not too big for it to close.
As for Ferrari, it’s mathematically possible but it will need a few more big hauls like Turkey to pull it off – something Sebastian Vettel has struggled to be part of recently other than in a rain-affected weekend.
The prize is prestige and a greater slice of the prize money. But the chance to be the third-best team in F1 is what those working for the teams really want.
Red Bull’s second seat in 2021
We know that Albon has been given until the end of the season to prove himself because Red Bull’s able to wait as long as it likes to make a decision.
Despite the setbacks, as the current incumbent Albon still has control over his destiny. If he turns his win-challenging pace in the unusual Turkish GP into a polished, solid performance over the final three weekends, that could (perhaps should) be enough to secure his seat for 2021.
However, anything less than a trio of very good grands prix and what faith will Red Bull have left?
That is what will fully open the door to Perez and Nico Hulkenberg, assuming they aren’t yet in a position to walk through it.
There’s precious little Perez and (especially) the sidelined Hulkenberg can do to further their causes.
But everything’s on the line for Albon in the Middle East.
A place in the shop window
Several drivers, maybe one quarter of the current grid, will be out of F1 next season. And none of them, at the time of writing, have confirmed their alternative plan!
Which means there’s plenty of desire to find a nice place in the shop window heading into the winter.
For some, like for instance Perez, this is pretty easy. He’s a known quantity, at the top of his game, and with decent backing. If he’s overlooked by Red Bull then he should be at the top of quite a few shopping lists outside of F1.
For others, like the Haas pair Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen, things are a little trickier.
They’re not in cars that allow for many heroics to boost their stock, but that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Who knows how valuable it could be for Magnussen to repeat his opportunistic run to 10th in Hungary, for example?
And what of the potential Red Bull refugees Albon and Daniil Kvyat?
If they are destined to need a Plan B, have they made much headway in establishing what that will be?
And if the final three races simply confirm to Red Bull why they should be dropped, is there anything that can be done to persuade someone else to pick them up?
Aerodynamic testing time
While the new sliding scale regulations for aerodynamic testing in 2021 affect all 10 teams – with this year’s constructors’ champion getting only 90% of the notional maximum allowed and each position reducing in 2.5% point steps and the last-placed team getting 112.5% – it’s of particular interest in the battle at the back.
Three teams – Alfa Romeo, Haas and Williams – are covered by just eight points with three races left and while all will prefer to take eighth in the championship to satisfy their competition desires, whoever comes out worst will at least have the advantage of a little more windtunnel and CFD work next year.
But that eight-point gap is misleading.
Alfa has managed just eight points in total this year, with Haas scoring just three and Williams zero after a couple of high-profile missed opportunities, so it will require a chaotic race for either of the two chasing teams to make up positions.
Realistically, Williams will end up with the consolation prize of extra aero testing next year compared to the rest.
But what it needs more than anything is a first points finish in over a year, even if it’s unlikely to translate to anything better than last.
Vital momentum for 2021
There are a number of drivers and teams with very little left to fight for on paper in 2020, but that’s not good enough in F1. Pride is not a tangible prize. But momentum might as well be.
Those without a ‘real’ target to aim for as this year draws to an end need to view the coming races as the first events of 2021. That’s the case throughout the grid.
For Valtteri Bottas, there are three races to take advantage of any post-title hangover from Lewis Hamilton and go into the winter with greater enthusiasm and motivation than his damp squib of a season would otherwise provide.
For soon-to-be Aston Martin team-mates Vettel and Lance Stroll, there are three races to put a difficult mid-season run behind them. They have been roundly beaten at Ferrari and Racing Point respectively this year, but ending on a high will establish a better mindset for what is a very important transition to Aston for their 2021 team.
And for Ferrari itself, there’s confirmation of its late-2020 progress up for grabs that would underline the development direction taken on the flawed SF1000, which has massively informed next year’s car.
With minimal pre-season testing to come in 2021, maximising the information from the rest of this season is key.
