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Formula 1’s attempts to brand last month’s Barcelona running as something other than a proper pre-season test unsurprisingly fell flat – it was very much a test like any other.
But this week’s three days in Bahrain will still have plenty of differences to what happened in Spain, and not just because test two is broadcast and promoted more widely.
HOW DIFFERENT WILL THE MERCEDES BE?
The expectation is that the big teams in particular will bring substantially different cars to Bahrain, especially Mercedes. There are whispers from inside the team that the next iteration of the 2022 design is looking a lot quicker on the simulator.
Red Bull is also likely to have a significantly more developed machine on show at Sakhir. The top teams would still have had windtunnel time available after when they had to commit to car build processes ready for Barcelona (which was potentially as early as mid-January), and the fruits of that later work will probably now be ready.
Ferrari has hinted that it had a close-to-definitive package ready at Barcelona, though, and that any changes for this week will just be optimisation.
But even this test won’t necessarily show final start-of-the-season versions of the cars. The deadline everyone’s ultimately working to is the moment the light goes green for first practice at the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend a week later.
WILL WE SEE NEW PORPOISING SOLUTIONS?
Cars ‘hopping’ up and down in the manner seen in test one was always a possibility with the return of ground effect aerodynamics, but the degree to which it hampered virtually every team at Barcelona was a consequence of only proper on-track running being able to reveal its actual effects. The simulators couldn’t show what would really happen when all those airflow equations broke down.
Back in F1’s past ground effect era, a relatively small change that suddenly made the underbody aero work properly could lead to a huge performance surge and totally change the picture for that team.
In this more advanced era, that’s less likely. But not impossible.
Having had two weeks to think about solutions, teams will surely have upgrades designed specifically with solving porpoising in mind, but they may also have to make performance compromises around ride heights.
IS FERRARI AS GOOD AS IT SEEMS?
As much as testing times can be misleading, there were no hints from test one that we’re in for a 2009-style inversion of the order. Red Bull and Mercedes still seem to be the benchmarks.
The most exciting question mark is Ferrari. Feedback from rivals and adjustment of testing times for tyre compounds and speculated fuel loads suggested it’s edging up to the same territory as last year’s top two.
It was in good shape for mileage, said it was achieving its targets, and the drivers appeared instantly confident on track, suggesting the real-life feeling was very similar to their simulator experiences. GPS data and comments from the likes of Toto Wolff also intimated that Ferrari’s engine could be the one to beat.
There’s lots for Ferrari fans to be excited about. But will that still be the case if Mercedes and Red Bull really do bring out substantially different cars this week?
WILL ALPINE SHOW ITS OPTIMISM IS JUSTIFIED?
Aside from Fernando Alonso stopping in a cloud of fire and smoke, Alpine didn’t do much to draw attention in the first test. Even before that incident it had problems, including one that meant it couldn’t use DRS, with laptime consequences in straightline speed terms, and it didn’t show startling pace at any points.
But Alpine said it was running high fuel throughout once it realised the DRS issue was going to affect it all week. The mood in the team is good – it feels its very different new engine is working very well and that considering how conservative its Barcelona programme ended up, it didn’t have too much to be concerned about.
This week it will surely either show its hand more clearly, or realise its optimism was misplaced.
CAN FITTIPALDI EARN A BIGGER CHANCE?
The answer to this one is no, probably not. The Race understands that Haas reserve driver Pietro Fittipaldi’s contract – and the backing he brings – guarantees him some seat time if a driver departs or is indisposed, so in addition to his test appearance he’s probably set to start the season for the team.
But no one expects him to stay in the car long. Whether it’s bringing Ferrari reserve Antonio Giovinazzi back over from his so-far-miserable Formula E rookie season or working out a way to borrow Formula 2 champion Oscar Piastri from Alpine, Haas is expected to have a higher-profile solution than Fittipaldi on the way.
What Fittipaldi can do is show that there needn’t be a massive hurry to secure that long-term solution. He did a safe and sensible job when he replaced the injured Romain Grosjean for the final two races of 2020, and has earned Haas’s respect for his behind-the-scenes work in recent years.
More of that ‘safe pair of hands’ style this week would be just what this belauguered team – which didn’t have a great week on track at Barcelona either – needs right now.
CAN ALFA ROMEO CATCH UP?
Alfa Romeo had conspicuously the worst opening test of any team – off the pace, particularly compromised by porpoising, and extremely short of relative mileage thanks to a litany of problems.
It’s effectively a day behind everyone else in terms of running and understanding, and will surely have to make compromises to its Sakhir test programme as a result.
The team’s had a bit of additional running thanks to carrying out a filming day around its livery launch on the Sunday after the test, and it believes it has a solution to its problems. That’s likely to be a combination of floor changes and ride height adjustments, but will there be performance compromises, and will the changes even work well enough?
