It seems more and more likely that the first Formula 1 driver change of 2025 might be coming just two rounds into the season. But did anyone expect that change to be coming at Red Bull?
Liam Lawson's catastrophic start to life in the Red Bull senior team had put his position in jeopardy even before an insipid drive to 15th on the road (and 12th in the final classification) in the Chinese Grand Prix - which only seems to have accelerated the process, to the point where it might already be too late for him to save himself.
What should Red Bull do? That's the question we asked our team.
Go back in time or suck it up
Scott Mitchell-Malm
Yes, this is at the absolute worst end of anyone's expectations. Worse, even. It has been dreadful so far. But the core details are utterly predictable: the car's too difficult to drive, Max Verstappen's on another level, and the driver chosen to replace Sergio Perez is decent but not special.
Red Bull knew all of this months ago. It's why Yuki Tsunoda was the more logical choice. There were doubts, sure, but at least with Tsunoda you minimised the variables. He was experienced, confident, and with a real turn of pace at his best.
Lawson always felt like a gamble. Unless the months Red Bull should have spent on the RB21 were spent building a time machine, Red Bull can't correct this mistake. It has to stand by it and hope it works.
Even considering a change after two races is embarrassing - imagine how bad it'll look if Red Bull actually went through with one.
Even if this form continued, the scrutiny shouldn't just be on the driver. It should be on the people who put him there. You don't get to pick Liam Lawson and then be shocked he isn't Max Verstappen.
Don't scapegoat Lawson too
Ben Anderson
It's really not acceptable for Red Bull to continue to hide behind Verstappen's freakish abilities and make yet another scapegoat of its second driver.
Perez was an experienced driver and a race winner, and you decided he wasn't good enough to be in that seat. You've replaced him with a guy who's only done a handful of races, but in that time impressed you more than Daniel Ricciardo Mk2 did, or Tsunoda - who's been racing for your second team for four seasons.
You can't say you believe in someone and then hang them out to dry after just two grands prix - on circuits they've never driven before (or not for seven years). That is basically a dereliction of duty to your driver.
Even if you think that driver is ultimately limited in his ability or potential, and certainly not at Verstappen's level (who is?), how can you think what you've seen so far is a fair reflection on Lawson?
We might need to reappraise Perez in this light - but at least the sample set of races on which Red Bull based that final decision was definitive. Whether you agree or not, we'd seen enough.
When is Red Bull going to face reality and own the fact its F1 cars are just not very good now - and so difficult to drive that only one of the very best drivers ever to do it can just about conjure a tune from them?
The first-order problem here is with Red Bull and its car development. The fact Verstappen suspects the junior team's 2025 car might be better than his own tells you everything.
Switching the second driver again after just a couple of difficult races isn’t going to solve that Adrian Newey-shaped problem.
Give the guy a chance
Gary Anderson
We all know that being Verstappen's team-mate is no walk in the park, but Lawson seems to be just that bit too far off Verstappen's pace for it to be just the fact that Max is a demigod.
If the decision was down to me I would be heading back to Milton Keynes, having an in-depth debrief with Lawson about his problems, comparing his driving to Max's and then putting him in the simulator - which would be initially set up for Suzuka, a track he knows well, then Bahrain, which he also knows from pre-season testing, and Jeddah, which he needs to learn.
Then I would wait until after those next three races to allow him to put into practice what he should have learned from that intensive simulator programme. After that, then I'd make a judgement on his future.
I think putting Tsunoda or Isack Hadjar in a Red Bull now would be wrong for both teams and all three drivers concerned. I don't think anyone would come out with Dr Helmut Marko giving them an A* for their efforts.
Red Bull gave the guy a chance. Now back that up and actually give the guy a chance.
Drop Lawson and start evaluating a new candidate
Josh Suttill
You'd assume Red Bull would swap Tsunoda and Lawson if it was Tsunoda who was picked to replace him before Suzuka, but Red Bull should be ruthless and drop Lawson altogether if it doesn't believe in him, rather than place him back at Racing Bulls.
There would be the potential for Lawson to rebuild himself at Racing Bulls. He'd no doubt do a solid job and contribute some points as he did during his appearances in 2023 and 2024.
But that's of no use to Red Bull's senior team. Question marks would forever remain over Lawson's capability of performing in Red Bull no matter how well he rebuilt himself in the junior team - just look at how Pierre Gasly was never considered for re-promotion despite being one of the stars of the midfield in Toro Rossos/AlphaTauris for over three years.
The purpose of Racing Bulls should be to provide future Red Bull Racing drivers so it's far more logical to plug a new option in there alongside Hadjar if Tsunoda gets promoted.
Alex Palou would be great but far more realistically Franco Colapinto would be a good fit. He was in talks with Red Bull after his starring start to his Williams half-season last year, even if his reputation took a hit with a string of incidents.
But there was real raw potential there that Red Bull would be wise to evaluate. There's the obstacle of Colapinto now being an Alpine reserve driver but there's always a deal to be struck with Flavio Briatore for the right price.
Worst-case Colapinto proves to be a dead-end that Red Bull quickly moves on by promoting Arvid Lindblad to Racing Bulls in 2026 anyway. Best case Red Bull has the luxury of a solid 2026 option to be Verstappen's team-mate should Tsunoda falter.
Give Lawson a last chance at Suzuka
Jon Noble
After dithering too long over what to do with Sergio Perez from the middle of last year, having made the initial mistake of committing to a new contract with him, Red Bull seems to be going the other way in making too quick a call over Lawson.
Sure Lawson’s first two races have been a disaster, and the worst qualifying run of a Red Bull driver in its history is a massive cause for concern, but to blame everything on Lawson - and think that an instant swap with Tsunoda will cure everything - is wrong.
Red Bull's conclusion last year, after sifting through the data, was that Lawson would be a better fit for the Red Bull over Tsunoda. So why now suddenly will things be different?
Circumstances have not favoured Lawson – with the RB21 a super tricky car, and the season starting at two tracks he has not competed at before, with mixed conditions at one (on top of a mechanical problem that robbed him of practice mileage) and a sprint at the other.
And yes all the above is no excuse for things being as bad as they have been – because other rookies such as Hadjar, Kimi Antonelli and Ollie Bearman have not been as far adrift of their team-mates in similar circumstances.
But now is the time to put an arm around Lawson, support him with everything possible and give him every opportunity to show what he can do at Suzuka – a track he knows well from Super Formula (pictured above) and is one where he has a run-up to get things sorted.
If he is still pegged to the back there, then I would rethink things; but moving him aside now, putting Tsunoda into an extremely difficult handling car amid the pressure environment of his home race runs the risk of Red Bull jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Dropping Lawson now would be absurd
Edd Straw
For Red Bull Racing to be considering dropping Lawson this early is absurd. It was only a few months ago he was talked of as the obvious choice, with his robust mentality and supposed driving-style similarities to Verstappen cited as the reason. How flimsy was that judgement if ditching him is already being considered?
While it's foolish to throw good money after bad, you have to back your decision and let it play out. That doesn't mean leaving Lawson floundering in the drive indefinitely, but give him at least some time to acclimatise to a tricky car and what Christian Horner rightly characterises as the toughest job in F1 of being Verstappen's team-mate.
To make a change in the early races would be an admission of a catastrophic failure of management, the latest in a sequence of poor decisions on the second driver that is compromising Red Bull's results. If the alternative is to replace what you thought was the least-worst, rather than a good, option with the next-least-worst, then that means the judgement of the decision makers - or the wider political landscape that leads to this happening - is proved to be the problem.
A completely different approach is needed. Recognise that Verstappen is one of the all-time greats, with a Schumacher-esque ability to make the most out of a fast-but-tricky car, and make a driver decision accordingly based on who has the characteristics.
It would be fascinating to see the impressive Tsunoda given a try, but considering the belief has long been his mentality isn't suited to the big team it would once again show flimsy judgement and lay bare a hit-and-hope strategy to fling him in in place of Lawson now.
Red Bull does so much extraordinarily well in F1, but the driver situation has long since gone beyond a joke.
If it drops Lawson, can we take Red Bull seriously anymore?
Glenn Freeman
If Red Bull's inability to resolve the tricky issue of Max Verstappen's team-mate has really reached the point where a driver can be dropped after TWO RACES, then we really shouldn't take this team seriously anymore.
Other perfectly viable candidates (Carlos Sainz, Yuki Tsunoda) were overlooked in favour of Lawson. And if Lawson is then kicked out so quickly, why should we have any faith in the processes that were behind the decision to sign him in the first place? Perhaps we'd be overestimating what really went into that process in the first place.
This isn't meant to be a defence of Lawson, whose performance so far has been dreadful. But in a 24-race season you can't be going back on your decisions this early. The F1 calendar conveniently has a triple-header coming up next, so he at least deserves that run of races to get his head around what's going on and to fight for his place.
If Red Bull won't even give him that opportunity, then it might as well put a celebrity in the car - we could see how many corners it would take MrBeast to spin an F1 car as a follow-up to his Formula E outing. Or just start calling up ex-Red Bull drivers for a bit of a laugh. Let's get David Coulthard and Mark Webber back behind the wheel, and how about giving a couple of races to Sebastian Vettel?
Obviously those aren't serious suggestions. But if Lawson really could lose his seat before the Japanese Grand Prix, maybe it's time for Red Bull to drop the pretence and just bring one car to races from now on.
