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It was so close to disaster. Sergio Perez thought he was out in Q2, facing another early qualifying elimination, just as Red Bull weighs up dropping him.
Then salvation, by three thousandths of a second. Alex Albon lamented one corner he could have done better in after crossing the line just - just - too slow to knock Perez out.
It looked like it could be a sliding doors moment for Perez. It looks like that even more now. From the brink of a Q2 exit to starting on the front row with a very good Q3 performance, setting up a shot at victory, or at least the kind of result that could make it impossible for Red Bull to drop him.
Perez vs Albon in Q2
S1
Perez 32.372s
Albon 32.171s (-0.201s)
S2
Perez 51.369s
Albon 51.859s (+0.490s)
S3
Perez 30.729s
Albon 30.443s (-0.286s)
Overall
Perez 1m54.470s
Albon 1m54.473s (+0.003s)
Perez insists this doesn’t change anything. “It would have been the same if I was knocked out in Q2,” he insisted. He even said if his race goes badly that he’ll aim for a good one at Zandvoort, dropping a not-so-subtle ‘I expect to still be in this seat’ hint in the process. But it must mean something given what senior Red Bull figures have said of late.
The situation is this: Christian Horner and Helmut Marko will sit down early next week to discuss whether a driver change is required to preserve Red Bull’s constructors’ championship lead and set the two teams up better for the rest of 2024 and beyond.
Perez could be retained, he could be dropped - Daniel Ricciardo, so close to getting to Q3 himself and impressing again in the RB, could replace him. Liam Lawson waits in the wings, too.
Marko, it is worth noting, described Perez's performance as "really great" to Sky Deutschland - but also pointed out that it would be "very, very good" if, having qualified ahead of the McLarens, Perez stayed ahead of them on Sunday, too.
There is much for Red Bull to consider. All Perez can do is what has been his priority for a couple of months: arrest the decline and get back to better days. “The rest, I couldn’t care less, to be honest.” And in a way it is that simple. If he performs, there is nothing for Red Bull to discuss, and nothing to speculate over.
This was another sign that he might finally take control of his situation. He looked like he might have turned a corner in Hungary last week and, after a tricky Friday at Spa, he managed difficult conditions very well on Saturday in easily his best qualifying performance and grid position for three months (April’s Chinese Grand Prix).
Until Charles Leclerc’s last lap, it was going to be an inherited pole position but, for once, Perez won’t mind. Nor will he care about a six-tenth margin to Max Verstappen, who has a 10-place grid penalty, given Perez had used intermediates in Q3 to Verstappen’s new ones.
Frustration at the near-miss won’t be his overriding emotion. Even if he won't say so publicly, it’s relief, a big relief, in the context of everything.
And it might be for the team, too - unless there are some who really want him gone. Remember that for all the talk and all the speculation, Red Bull hasn’t been lying; it wants Perez to be on top form because that's the easiest outcome for everyone by quite a margin.
The feeling at Red Bull this week in Belgium, regarding the future of its drivers, is one of uncertainty. It reflects how reluctant any mid-season change would be, and how unusually significant this single data point could be: a terrible result might condemn Perez, a great result might save him.
On recent form one looked more likely than the other but Perez - who has a reputation for excelling when his back is against the wall - has defied any such low expectations from his critics.
He suggested “there are a lot of drivers that haven't been able to maximise their performance lately, but the scrutiny on my side has been quite a bit higher”. But there are no other drivers in leading teams whose team is fuelling this speculation by weighing up all their driver options - and saying as much, on the record and in private.
So what happens if Perez translates this into a first podium since April this year, or even a first win since April 2023: will Red Bull believe this is the level it can count on from Perez for the rest of the year, or will it think this is a peak that’s only evidence of the inconsistency that has left it vulnerable in the championship?
The answer will determine Red Bull’s choice. All Perez can do on Sunday is produce a performance that asks the question.
