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Red Bull has spent most of 2024 denying Max Verstappen could leave and dealing with Mercedes openly flirting with its Formula 1 world champion. It may have finally, indirectly admitted it needs a Plan B, though - and Mercedes might hold the key.
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner gave a very strong hint that George Russell could become a serious target for his team to sign for 2026 when he said it would be "foolish" not to take into consideration the fact that Russell is out of contract at the end of next year.
Russell was earmarked to be Mercedes' leader once Lewis Hamilton finally retired and when Hamilton's shock Ferrari move for 2025 was revealed earlier this year, Russell's position seemed to become even more assured.
But if Mercedes gets back to being a championship challenger again, with the new rules in 2026 a great chance to reset the pecking order, Russell might not be around to benefit - if Mercedes' pursuit of Verstappen finally pays off.
Right now, Mercedes is adamant it is very happy with Russell, reiterates how highly it rates him, and says it wants to focus on maximising 2025 with him and Hamilton's successor, Kimi Antonelli. Team boss Toto Wolff, who bluntly dismissed Horner's remarks as him "always trying to stir the s***", said Russell "is a Mercedes driver, has been forever and hopefully will be forever" because "we have a long contract with him".
But, at least based on what is public knowledge, Russell seems to really be on a short contract with Mercedes' F1 team. He signed a new deal in 2023 that Mercedes said runs until the end of 2025. And as Mercedes has decided to promote its teenage prodigy Antonelli to an F1 seat after just one season in Formula 2, it has left quite a few people wondering if Antonelli and Verstappen is Mercedes' future line-up.
While Wolff had a pop at Horner, ultimately it's Wolff who has sent the Mercedes driver narrative in this direction. He was keen to promote Antonelli and has talked him up a lot, while chasing Verstappen at the same time. That pursuit has been paused but Wolff wants to try again later and the next opportunity will be for 2026.
Three drivers into two seats will not go so Mercedes will have to drop one of its own to get Verstappen. Unsurprisingly, Wolff doesn't want to entertain 'what ifs' about his own drivers, and doesn't think this is a relevant topic until the 2025 season is well underway and the picture has become clearer. Maybe Verstappen's not going to emerge as an option at all. Maybe Mercedes' drivers are both stunningly good and so the decision to keep both and not bother with Verstappen is actually an easy one.
But Russell's potential availability is based on more than just being out of contract. The circumstances at Mercedes could change so that he no longer fits into its plans. And as that would almost certainly mean Verstappen going to Mercedes, it would leave Red Bull with a big vacancy that Russell would be perfect to fill.
Red Bull is in a driver crisis of its own making. Verstappen's staying for 2025 and under contract until the end of 2028 but nobody believes his future is secure because of various Red Bull issues including power struggles, Jos Verstappen's feud with Horner, and the team's poor competitive trajectory in 2024.
Plus there's the wider issue of Verstappen seemingly growing increasingly disenchanted with all the peripheral stuff around F1, which could hasten his plan for an early retirement.
Even worse for Red Bull than potentially losing its superstar driver is that it has completely failed to create a contingency plan so far. Whether Verstappen's tempted away by another team or just gets fed up with F1 altogether, Red Bull needs a 'plug in and play' lead driver that it doesn't have waiting in the wings.
While Horner wasn't talking in such specifics and could just claim he was musing about bringing Russell in alongside Verstappen, that feels like a non-starter in reality. Any consideration of Russell must be as a replacement for the world champion.
Red Bull has never wanted to pair Verstappen with someone who could give him a hard time and Russell, as a driver on-track and a personality off it, would not settle for being a number two. The two have also had some run-ins together so, while they are hardly mortal enemies, this just doesn't feel like a sensible fit.
The only logical conclusion is that Red Bull sees Russell as a potential Verstappen Plan B to consider depending on how the driver market evolves. This could be the first real admission Red Bull does need to consider life after Verstappen. And it makes a lot of sense.
Russell's got his doubters but he is very good. His qualifying speed is consistently excellent, he's demolished Lewis Hamilton on Saturdays this year and, while he has made the odd high-profile error in his Mercedes and sometimes been overzealous with his race management, he has also produced some very assured drives and is a proven race winner.
He is a world championship challenger in the right car and, if Verstappen walked away tomorrow, none of Red Bull's current options could claim to be at that level.
Red Bull cannot predict what is going to happen within its own driver ranks at the moment, let alone how the driver market could shift in the next 18 months. So, it is not going to lock itself into a decision any time soon.
But if, in Russell, there really is a young, race-winning driver seemingly out of contract for 2026, it wouldn't just be "foolish" for Red Bull to ignore him - it would be negligent.
