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Sergio Perez’s fresh disappointment in Las Vegas Grand Prix qualifying underlines why his Formula 1 seat is at risk – unfortunately for Red Bull, the same session also illustrated what is making the decision so difficult.
Perez is in a bad run of form so deep it may be a permanent downturn. Whereas previously, Perez pulled himself out of his Red Bull spirals with strong individual performances.
Despite his persistent optimism coming into weekends, there is no evidence of Perez doing that this time. He is not the type to give in, but he looks and sounds like he has no answers. In Vegas, the story is no grip, sliding, and killing the tyres. But no explanation for why.
"We've got a fundamental issue at the moment with the car that is just not working for me," Perez said.
"At the moment, we come to the weekends and we just explore a lot of things, and then it's just a difficult one to make it work.
"You want to be up there, especially when I know what I can do, but when you don't have that grip underneath you, then it's really hard, and you're prone to a lot of mistakes and so on."
It is the first time he has had such a persistent performance deficit like what doomed his predecessor Alex Albon in 2020, and results like his Q1 exit in Vegas are worse than Albon’s patchy form was that year.
And it is costing Red Bull dearly. Perez’s results have dropped the team to third in the constructors’ championship despite Max Verstappen being on course to win another drivers’ title. A massive turnaround is needed from Perez to support Verstappen and score podiums in the last three races.
“There’s no way we’re going to win the constructors’ championship without that,” Red Bull team boss Christian Horner told F1TV in Las Vegas. And it is desperately unlikely to happen – even beyond the tricky task Perez now faces on Saturday night in the US.
Privately, senior figures at Red Bull are known to believe that the best scenario is Perez recognises this is the end and retires. That could avoid a very costly pay-off and keep him involved with Red Bull the brand.
But Red Bull is also weighing up taking the financial hit itself – and Horner has stressed once again this weekend the option is there to dump Perez despite the driver’s absolute insistence he will have his drive next season.
“All the drivers that we have under contract, we’re very clear on what their contractual situations are,” said Horner.
“We could, if we so chose, leave it all the way up until Melbourne next year if we want to because we have drivers under contract.”
That won’t happen. It’ll be decided at the end of the season. But that choice is touch-and-go.
Red Bull may not want to drop Perez, as it wants Perez to be the consistent podium finisher he has been at his best, admittedly when Red Bull’s car advantage was clearest. It has realised, though, that a driver change is needed. The problem is the lack of a clear-cut alternative, at least in Red Bull’s eyes.
Daniel Ricciardo was dumped for Liam Lawson because the ex-Red Bull driver was not deemed consistently good enough anymore to be a real candidate to partner Verstappen again.
Lawson’s raced well, scored points, and been combative in battle, but he lacks experience and there is a little doubt over his ultimate speed. He was outpaced by Yuki Tsunoda in Brazil and has been slower than Tsunoda in Vegas, too. So this is not a particularly compelling weekend from Lawson so far either – nor Franco Colapinto, the left-field Red Bull option currently driving for Williams.
Colapinto would require a big payout to extract him from his long-term Williams contract and while there is clearly a lot of raw ability and speed there, and a lot of confidence, his massive Vegas qualifying crash means he is building a bit of a reputation.
He shunted in the wet in qualifying at the last race in Brazil, then behind the safety car in the grand prix. That underlines the kind of gamble Red Bull would be taking.
Red Bull’s decision-making on drivers has descended into race-by-race swings at times this year, and judging it solely on Vegas so far, Tsunoda once again looks the relatively best option.
Tsunoda’s someone that Red Bull senior adviser Helmut Marko is interested in trying, but Horner has reservations over. That leaves Tsunoda treading water unless the lack of convincing alternatives mean his main doubters inside Red Bull give in.
“Those things I can’t control,” Tsunoda said of what he needs to do to win Red Bull over.
“What I can do is control is my performance like I’ve shown this year, so far.
“I trust myself to show my consistent results as much as possible and hopefully they’ll change their mind.
“Even if anything doesn’t change it, I’ll do as much as I can and I know what I can do when I step into Red Bull.
“I’ve just got to prepare as much as possible, show the good results and let them decide.”
