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This weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix is the final race before the summer break, in which Red Bull intends to make a decision on its Formula 1 driver line-up for the rest of 2024.
Sergio Perez’s poor form has left Red Bull Racing vulnerable in the constructors’ championship, especially following McLaren’s 1-2 finish in last weekend’s Hungarian Grand Prix.
Red Bull wants to wait until August to make an informed decision about what to do away from the stresses and swings of race weekends.
Its options are, on paper, simple: keep Perez and back him to do the job or replace him and reshuffle its pack in the process.
The choice should be too big for one race weekend at Spa to be so pivotal but it could either confirm recent trends or give Red Bull new data to consider.
So, what are Red Bull’s options, and can anyone sway its thinking in this last race before the break?
Daniel Ricciardo
Red Bull status: Horner's preferred short-term option
Argument for: Experienced and in better form
What he can do at Spa: Lead RB and continue his mini-revival
Ricciardo is being considered as a short-term replacement for Perez for the rest of 2024 due to a combination of circumstances and his own recent improvements.
Despite a challenging start to the year with the second Red Bull team alongside Yuki Tsunoda, as Ricciardo failed to impress initially, his form has improved quite consistently since the Canadian Grand Prix.
He has scored more points than Tsunoda since then, generally qualified well depending on what the car’s capable of, and only poor strategic choices by the team have prevented better results - most recently last weekend in Hungary.
Ricciardo’s shift in performance has coincided with a critical phase in the constructors' championship, in which Red Bull has faced increased competition, notably from McLaren.
Red Bull's need for a dependable second driver to support Max Verstappen and secure the constructors' title has become ever more urgent, and Ricciardo's experience and potential compatibility with the RB20 makes him a viable option for the rest of this year.
But he needs to build on his recent form and sign off with a strong weekend at Spa to really cement his case, and he’s still banking on Perez continuing to show weakness.
Sergio Perez
Red Bull status: Incumbent driver
Argument for: Simple to keep him, showing signs of life
What he can do at Spa: Finally end his qualifying misery
Perez faces a critical moment at the upcoming Spa race, which could potentially be his last for Red Bull - even though he keeps saying he’ll be with the team at the end of this season and next year as well.
Despite a disappointing stretch since his last podium in China, with a series of underwhelming finishes, Perez showed signs of recovery during the Hungarian GP weekend.
He felt more comfortable with the car, benefiting from upgrades including a front wing that enhanced his confidence even though he was missing the big bodywork part of the Red Bull high-downforce package.
This improved confidence survived a qualifying crash and was translated into a strong race recovery from 16th to seventh, with pace close to Verstappen’s for most of the grand prix. Team boss Christian Horner even called this Perez's best race in three months.
However, when asked by The Race, Horner declined to say whether a repeat at Spa would guarantee Perez his seat. So, the question remains whether one more race is enough of an opportunity to fully convince Red Bull of his long-term viability.
It probably can’t completely alter Red Bull's decision-making process but it can influence it. Ending his awful qualifying form would be a start - at the very least, he needs to avoid crashing out of Q1 for the third race in a row.
Go well and, though it won’t tell the team anything it doesn’t already know, it will show Perez isn’t irreversibly in decline. Struggle, and it will reinforce Red Bull’s concern and undermine the positives from last weekend.
Liam Lawson
Red Bull status: Wildcard pick
Argument for: Red Bull junior with good potential
What he can do at Spa: Wait
Lawson's role at Red Bull, where he is reserve driver for both teams, has left him with limited opportunities this season. His five grands prix for RB last year in place of the injured Ricciardo mean he is ineligible for the rookie FP1 outings that teams must do twice during the season. And he is not racing anywhere else alongside his F1 reserve duties.
Despite that, Red Bull remains keen to give Lawson an F1 seat off the back of his RB outings last year and a recent test in the 2024 RB20 that went well enough to keep him under consideration. And there’s the element of needing to give Lawson a race seat for 2025 by September, or he becomes a free agent.
Still, with everything considered, Lawson feels like more of a 2025 Red Bull Racing candidate rather than on the verge of an immediate promotion to replace Perez mid-season.
Red Bull appears cautious about promoting him too soon, recognising the challenges and pressures that come with jumping in halfway through the year and being given the task of bringing home a championship that the team desperately wants (and that over a thousand employees have a big bonus riding on).
If the role is deemed too demanding for Lawson at this stage, but Red Bull still wants to replace Perez, then giving that seat to Ricciardo would then mean placing Lawson in a full-time seat at the sister team alongside Tsunoda for the rest of 2024.
This would allow Lawson to gain more experience and prove himself in a familiar environment after last year, over a bigger run of races, and make him a strong contender for a permanent role at either team in 2025.
Yuki Tsunoda
Red Bull status: Marko’s preference but an outsider
Argument for: The best-performing RB driver on balance
What he can do at Spa: Beat Ricciardo and hope for the best
Tsunoda, despite a good body of work across the past season and a half, is clearly seen as a last-resort option for a promotion within Red Bull, primarily due to internal dynamics and off-track concerns.
Although Tsunoda has, for the most part, outperformed his more experienced team-mate Ricciardo, the decision-making within Red Bull has shifted. Horner now holds more influence over driver selection than Helmut Marko, who favours Tsunoda.
Concerns about Tsunoda seem to include his attitude and his capacity to cope with pressure. That doesn’t seem to fairly reflect the overall nature of his performance at RB over the last year or so, but then again it is a different environment. It seems Red Bull feels he is more prone to struggling like Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon did.
These concerns make his promotion unlikely, certainly for this year and probably for 2025, unless multiple other options fail: for example if Perez is dropped, if Ricciardo underperforms as his replacement, and if Lawson is bested by Tsunoda at RB.
Tsunoda's situation reflects just how harsh F1 can be when there’s more than pure performance to consider.
