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Liam Lawson is the frontrunner to replace Sergio Perez should Red Bull feel a mid-season driver change is necessary, while Daniel Ricciardo's Formula 1 future looks uncertain as well.
Lawson's first test in the 2024 Red Bull last week came at a time when incumbent driver Perez is under increasing pressure to keep his seat alongside Max Verstappen.
And the company's F1 driver plans are wide-ranging as it keeps all options open ahead of what could be a pivotal final two races before the summer break - when conversations are expected to take place about what action should be taken.
LAWSON'S TEST
Lawson drove Red Bull’s 2024 car in a short test at Silverstone last Thursday, in between the British and Hungarian Grands Prix.
His first run in the RB20 was facilitated by a filming day - formally known as a 'promotional event' - that limits teams to 200km of running and the use of special Pirelli 'Academy' tyres that are not at the same level as F1 race tyres.
Nonetheless, Red Bull got a reference to Verstappen for Lawson to be compared against, and The Race understands his pace was in the window the team needed it to be.
This is basically within a few tenths of a second of Verstappen, which is where Perez was performing for the first quarter of the season when he was regularly scoring podiums.
But Perez’s pace has become unimpressive since the Emilia Romagna GP at Imola, regularly lapping more than half a second slower than Verstappen in qualifying.
And the difference between the two drivers is that this could be Lawson's starting point that Red Bull would expect him to improve from, whereas a confident Perez is - with some exceptions - most likely to be around three tenths adrift of Verstappen.
The intention would be for Lawson to slot in and score points at a good rate even if he starts near or right at the back of the lead eight cars. That is the best Perez has offered over the last six races, and he has failed to score points in three of them.
Some feedback within Red Bull is that Lawson's pace and self-confidence would protect him from suffering the same fate as Perez's predecessors.
Pierre Gasly and then Alex Albon were quickly replaced at Red Bull as they failed to get close enough to Verstappen and did not convince Red Bull that they had the ability to turn it around.
TSUNODA'S 'WEIRD' VERDICT
Yuki Tsunoda, who has largely outperformed Ricciardo at RB this season, has been recently tipped as a contender for Perez's seat in 2025.
But it is thought that Tsunoda is Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko's favoured pick if a mid-season Perez replacement is required, and that does not reflect the view of team principal Christian Horner.
That is relevant because the internal fighting for control at Red Bull over the last year or more has resulted in power shifting towards Horner when it comes to driver choices.
At the very least, there's significant enough reservations from the management of the team to make a Tsunoda promotion a definite long shot.
Despite that, Tsunoda was inevitably fairly open at the Hungaroring on Thursday about his ambitions of driving for the senior Red Bull team if a seat suddenly became available.
He admitted that the races leading up to the summer break carried a heightened importance "if the rumours are true" but called it "good pressure rather than bad pressure" when compared to the times in his career when he was fighting to ensure any kind of F1 future.
But when asked by The Race whether, given his performances this season, he would find it weird to be overlooked for a less experienced driver like Lawson if there's a vacancy at the senior team, he gave a blunt answer: "If they choose Liam, that'd be weird.
"For sure Liam did a really good job when he drove in the team but...I think I did more than that. We'll see how it goes. In the end, they know how to manage the drivers."
UP TO PEREZ
Speaking in his own media session, Perez said it was "normal" for Tsunoda and others to want his seat as "that's just part of the nature of the sport".
He also sought to project total confidence that he would remain in the car for the rest of the season and beyond.
"I've been in this business for too long and I know that it will only matter where I finish in Abu Dhabi," Perez said, repeating that sentiment in other answers, too, and thus signalling that there was no doubt in his mind he'd still have the RB20 at his disposal by the end of the season.
He also repeatedly dismissed suggestions his Red Bull position was on shaky ground as "external noise" and said the upcoming two races before the summer break were no more or less important than any other races in the calendar.
When asked directly about reports of a performance clause relative to Verstappen that could enable Red Bull to replace him at the summer break, Perez said: "There's nothing related to that. Obviously I cannot talk about my contract, but there's nothing related to that."
He added: "I'm fully focused on fully delivering, and I will be here [after the summer break] and I will be here again next year."
The Race now believes that talk of a performance clause at the summer break does not relate to a points margin Perez must stay within, but that there are other contractual mechanisms for Red Bull to make a switch should it desire to do so.
Essentially, it would need to buy Perez out of his contract. That might require a specified amount if there are certain performance targets that have not been met, or it may simply reflect the value of his salary.
VERSTAPPEN'S VIEW
For his part, Red Bull's three-time champion Verstappen took a largely defensive tone when describing Perez's recent struggles.
"We cannot deny that the last few weekends have been a bit difficult [for him] - I would say also some were a bit unlucky," Verstappen said, bringing up Perez's Silverstone Q1 off as one such instance.
"He wants to do better, but I know that he's working very hard, it's not that he just takes it for granted or whatever.
"Hopefully here, when the car maybe suits his driving a bit more, everything feels a bit more connected, it can work a bit better for him.
"We just have to focus on performance - our car has been a bit tricky at times over a Friday, we were always chasing balance.
"As a driver, it's very hard to be consistent because you're always having to deal with different kind of balance issues - so it's also not entirely fair to say that everything is his own fault, because even for myself the last few weekends have been very challenging to get the best out of the car."
Verstappen also pointed out that his collaboration with Perez when it comes to car development "has always been a strong point".
RICCIARDO OUT?
One of the sentiments expressed recently by Marko is that the company's second F1 entry RB needs to be a junior team again.
Turning RB into a place for rookies to prove themselves is not going to happen. One reason is that this would hurt the team's competitive prospects when Red Bull has made it clear this needs to be a priority, and another is that marketing appeal is relevant to a team that now has high-value partners like Visa and Cash App.
A compromise, though, is to have a blend of youth and experience. This also directly benefits Red Bull given its young driver programme has suffered for a lack of strategy in recent years.
With Lawson an option and Red Bull junior Isack Hadjar leading the Formula 2 championship, there is a logjam if Red Bull cannot find space by dropping the older drivers occupying seats in its two teams.
Lawson in for Perez would solve that problem, if that’s what Red Bull feels needs to be done, but Ricciardo making way is also a possibility.
The Ricciardo narrative has had him flitting between 'contender for a Red Bull Racing seat' and 'losing his place on the grid entirely' for what feels like an eternity.
In reality he has not done enough to convince Red Bull that he should get a top seat again, and it is understood he was also recently given a hurry-up that relates to his place in RB.
There are even suggestions that Red Bull has started exploring possible soft landings for Ricciardo, so that if he does need to be dropped he can stay on the grid elsewhere.
Much like Perez's position at Red Bull, nothing is set in stone. But Red Bull is making various contingency plans as it looks to secure its short-term objectives and set itself up better long-term as well.
