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Red Bull’s need to close out the 2024 Formula 1 constructors’ championship could mean Daniel Ricciardo gets an unexpected mid-season promotion to the senior team after all.
Sergio Perez’s struggles have continued at the Hungarian Grand Prix, where he crashed out of Q1 for the second race running and will start Sunday’s race from 16th.
This has led Red Bull to start drawing up contingency plans, including dropping Perez over the summer break, because even though he recently signed a new contract keeping him at the team until the end of 2026 that always had performance clauses to meet and the potential to be bought out.
As reported by The Race early in the Hungarian GP event, reserve driver Liam Lawson – who recently completed a reasonable test in Red Bull’s 2024 car – was thought to be the frontrunner if Red Bull did decide to replace Perez before the end of the year.
But now sources have indicated that Red Bull believes Ricciardo would be a more pragmatic choice, at least for the rest of 2024.
This reflects how fluid the situation is and why Red Bull wants to get to the summer break, with data from Sunday’s Hungarian GP and next week’s Belgian GP, to make a decision free from the rapidly-changing variables of a race weekend.
How quickly Red Bull's considerations are changing was also hinted at by Ricciardo's post-qualifying comments, when he was even talking in terms of trying to save his RB seat, let alone gun for Perez’s, after qualifying ninth in Hungary.
Ricciardo said he has not been “told anything” by Red Bull, although it is believed a few races ago he had been given the summer break as a deadline to make the strongest case he could.
“I haven't been told anything, but I've told myself ‘f***ing do it, go fast, you’ve got two races to give it hell’,” he said when asked by The Race what Red Bull had told him in the context of wanting to consider its 2024 and 2025 options during the summer break.
“And that's honestly not even with the idea of moving up, it's even just trying to lock something in for next year.
“I intentionally came into the weekend telling myself that these two races could be two of the most important of not only my season but potentially my career.
“They haven't specifically said anything to me, but I've said enough to myself.”
Ricciardo is essentially in an all-or-nothing position at Red Bull. He could be in the Red Bull after the summer break, or may lose his RB seat for 2025.
The reason Ricciardo is being seriously considered for the top team again – when it was thought to be so unlikely as he had largely unimpressed this year alongside Yuki Tsunoda – is because of the general trend of the last few events and a feeling that he is actually the most dependable short-term option.
Ricciardo’s been the better RB driver in three of the four rounds from the Canadian Grand Prix onwards, scoring six points to Tsunoda’s one.
This has helped give Red Bull bosses more faith in him. And crucially it has coincided with Red Bull’s championship reality becoming crystal clear.
Perez has scored just 15 points in the last six events and Red Bull has been fortunate to have actually extended its championship lead in this period because Ferrari’s form has faltered.
But McLaren and Mercedes are outscoring Red Bull and a McLaren one-two in Hungary qualifying, with Max Verstappen only third, has rammed home how quickly Red Bull could start to be caught if it continues to only have one car scoring good points or any points at all.
That has reiterated the need for a dependable second driver, as winning the constructors’ championship is a huge priority for Red Bull. It is the difference of thousands of pounds in bonuses for the team’s massive workforce.
While Lawson is considered a driver of high potential, one argument against putting him in the car for the rest of 2024 is how much that would ask of him. The high stakes that are putting Perez on the brink mid-season also mean handing his seat to a wildcard choice would be very risky.
Matching Verstappen is no easy task, even for an experienced driver with good knowledge of all the tracks and familiarity with the car itself. Lawson may have a high ceiling but Red Bull needs a consistent option for the last 10 races who can help get the title over the line.
That is where the preference for Ricciardo comes from, with Lawson then taking his seat at RB so that Red Bull can evaluate the youngster alongside Tsunoda in that environment over half a season, on top of the five races he did there last year.
Lawson would then be in contention to take the Red Bull Racing driver full-time in 2025 if he impressed and Ricciardo struggled. Or he could continue for a full season at RB if Ricciardo performs strongly enough alongside Verstappen to earn an extended stay.
How Ricciardo and Perez perform in the final two races before the break will be critical. But Perez already faces a tough task on Sunday in Hungary.
If he is then left with just Spa to make his case, a strong weekend there may not be enough to turn the tide – especially if Ricciardo continues his upward trend and is able to make a convincing enough argument to Red Bull that he would be a consistently good support act to Verstappen.
