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It will now be a surprise if Sergio Perez is not racing for Red Bull when the Formula 1 season resumes at the Dutch Grand Prix, but could the reprieve only be temporary?
Having met with fellow Red Bull chief Helmut Marko on Monday, team principal Christian Horner has indicated – as communicated to the team at its Milton Keynes base – that “Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver despite recent speculation and we look forward to seeing him perform at tracks he has previously excelled at after the summer break”.
That’s been widely reported as Perez keeping his Red Bull seat. For now.
This information has leaked to various media, including The Race, and a decision not to sack a driver under contract for another year and a half was never likely to be met with a press release or the usual kind of official announcement. Because despite openly flirting with the idea of dropping Perez (and some typically choice words from Marko in particular) Red Bull never presented this as a formal process – so, publicly, there’s nothing to announce.
WHAT WASN'T SAID
What has been shared, though, is very specific. As it often is with Red Bull – Horner has spoken very carefully over the years around delicate moments, particularly when it comes to drivers being dropped or moved between teams.
So, in addition to it not being officially confirmed, and certainly not said that it will definitely be for the rest of the season, Horner has referenced seeing Perez “perform at tracks he has previously excelled”.
This could well mean Baku and Singapore, two circuits he has scored three of his five Red Bull wins on, now back-to-back due to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix moving to a later date. They follow the final European races of the season at Zandvoort, the first race after the summer break, and Monza – and after Singapore there is an unusual autumn gap in the schedule.
It seems that the decision was actually to delay the decision. Red Bull does not want to replace Perez. It wants him to find the form that was so strong early in 2024, when Red Bull still had a car advantage and it seemed to be in a better working window. The fact that’s changed is inferred by rivals - and even hinted at by Red Bull’s drivers - as a sign that upgrades through the season have not improved the car enough.
The situation looked very shaky when Perez blew his chance to show he can be a robust support act to Max Verstappen in Belgium, the last race before the meeting between Horner and Marko – who said Perez “completely collapsed” in the grand prix.
Perez had qualified on the front row for the first time since the Chinese Grand Prix three months ago, but tumbled down to eighth as the race progressed.
Falling so limply to last of the lead group of eight cars rammed home how weak Red Bull’s second car currently is compared to its rivals.
Before George Russell was disqualified, the Mercedes driver’s points had dumped Perez to eighth in the championship too, having been a strong second eight races ago.
More important is how Perez’s nosedive in form has allowed McLaren to cut the gap in the constructors’ standings from 115 points to 42, averaging a gain of nine points per race in that time.
At this rate, it will catch and pass Red Bull quite comfortably before the end of the season and, frankly, if it had nailed a few more races before the summer break, McLaren might already be ahead.
IS PEREZ REALLY RED BULL'S BIG PROBLEM?
Despite this, Perez was more than just typically dismissive of the speculation post-race at Spa. He expressed his confidence he will stay in his seat, and reiterated points he’s made previously that he gets more scrutiny than other drivers for underperforming and that Red Bull has other issues to solve and “we cannot waste any energy with all this speculation”. Verstappen, to be fair, has also argued his team-mate’s not Red Bull’s biggest problem right now because it has difficulties with its car and the McLaren threat to worry about.
Perez also said at Spa that he wouldn’t take any more questions about his future. The ‘news’ he’s staying will validate that position. But it’s worth stressing that the possibility of him being dropped isn’t a made-up narrative. His own team is fuelling such speculation by considering making a mid-season change in the first place – and saying as much, on the record and in private.
Plus, over the last eight races, Perez is miles behind the other drivers in the top four teams. So, yes, the scrutiny on him is unique - because he is uniquely underperforming.
Though it is hard to see how this level of performance can be tolerated, given it is putting Red Bull’s championship at risk, pulling the trigger is a huge decision, even ignoring any potential commercial implications.
Back Perez and one of two things will happen: Red Bull will either stumble over the line clinging onto the lead, with the odd Perez highlight just about being enough, or it will be easily overtaken and Perez will be the reason why.
ALTERNATIVES AREN'T SAFE BETS
Drop Perez, though, and there’s no guarantee of anything better. Red Bull might have a rejuvenated second car with both in the mix more often than not. Daniel Ricciardo, or Liam Lawson if Red Bull took a real punt for Verstappen’s team-mate, might be just as volatile form-wise as Perez. Or they might be even worse.
Maybe, then, giving Perez four more races including those two street circuits, is a last chance at regaining that form. The magnitude of the McLaren threat will be even clearer by then, too. Could Red Bull get away with waiting just a little longer?
It could combine to be the lift Perez needs – a show of faith in the face of recent (Red Bull-generated) speculation, a chance for Perez to signal a ‘f**k you’ to his doubters, and some morale-boosting and form-inducing results on two of his best circuits.
Or it could backfire. The slump could continue. Red Bull could lose control of the championship fight entirely and have little time to react.
But Red Bull is – laudably, in a way – taking a view that doing right by its driver will eventually do right by the team.
For the sake of Perez, those who have made this decision, and the many people at Red Bull busting a gut to win these championships (and with a healthy bonus on the line), it had better work.
