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Red Bull looks increasingly likely to replace Sergio Perez when it finalises its 2025 Formula 1 driver line-ups after this season's finale in Abu Dhabi this week.
Despite Sergio Perez’s insistence he will remain Max Verstappen’s team-mate next year - and the fact he had been announced as staying - the reality has not been so definitive for several months.
Ever since Red Bull seriously considered dropping him in the summer break, Perez’s position has been precarious.
With just one race left in 2025, team boss Christian Horner told The Race that Red Bull will weigh up its options after Abu Dhabi and still needs to understand “what the path is with Sergio”.
But it is understood to now be a matter of how to handle his exit, rather than whether he should be replaced, with Liam Lawson in line to partner Max Verstappen next season.
While Perez has previously pulled himself out of short Red Bull spirals with strong individual weekends, there has been little evidence of him doing so this year.
With the notable exception of Baku, he has barely shown a hint of replicating his early-season podium-scoring form at all since April. Even his front row start at Spa turned into finishing last 'in class', among the top four teams.
Given how much Verstappen has complained about the Red Bull, and the fact there have been times both drivers have reported similar limitations, there is an element of Perez simply not being able to work around the problems like Verstappen can.
Verstappen’s father Jos has even hinted, as part of his semi-regular Red Bull criticism, that if the team could produce a less challenging car, he would back Perez to be closer to the front again.
There is some truth to that. But any trickiness with the RB20 does not explain the full extent of the gaps, or the many Q1 exits and paltry points return in a car that has still continued to score podiums and win races in Verstappen's hands.
Perez has also cost the team the constructors’ championship despite Verstappen winning a fourth straight drivers' title.
It has been known for several weeks that Red Bull believes the best scenario is Perez recognises this is the end and retires. That could avoid a very costly pay-off and keep Perez involved with Red Bull the brand.
Red Bull team boss Christian Horner even hinted at this in Qatar, where Perez was overtaken in the pit exit at the start of the sprint race and then retired from the grand prix after apparently burning his clutch with a careless spin behind the safety car.
Horner said he’d let Perez “come to his own conclusions” and “nobody’s forcing him one way or another”.
It is unlikely Perez is going to take his exit lying down given he has a life to manage after F1 and, as he has often pointed out, he has a contract. He is believed to be keen on being well-compensated in the event he is dropped, so is fully aware of his perilous position.
"He’s old enough and wise enough to know what the situation is," said Horner.
While the exact way to manage Perez’s exit is still something Red Bull is still working on, it is believed to have zeroed in on Lawson as the replacement.
Perez was only ever meant to be a short-term solution to Red Bull’s driver problems but his stay has been extended by solid enough performances during the peak of its domination and the fact there has been lack of a clear-cut alternative, at least in Red Bull’s eyes.
Lawson’s latest cameo in Red Bull’s second team seems to have mostly convinced Red Bull he is worth putting in alongside Verstappen.
He stepped in last year in place of the injured Daniel Ricciardo and did well but a combination of Red Bull’s lingering interest in the Ricciardo experiment, plus Honda’s backing of Yuki Tsunoda, meant there was no full-time drive available.
Lawson has since had a second chance in the final part of the season though. Ricciardo was dumped because he was not deemed consistently good enough anymore to be a real candidate to partner Verstappen again.
Since coming in, Lawson has raced well, scored points, and been combative in battle. He lacks experience and has made mistakes, including a spin in battle in Qatar, and there is a little doubt over his ultimate speed, but Red Bull does not seem too bothered by his occasional deficit to Tsunoda.
It acknowledges Tsunoda is very quick - so is encouraged that Lawson can compete well with a fast driver who is much more experienced than he is, given Lawson has a lot of other compelling attributes.
Lawson is very confident and does not seem to get easily rattled in the Red Bull environment. That mental robustness is a coveted asset, so while Lawson doesn’t tick every box, he gives Red Bull some optimism that he would do a better job than what Perez has done.
Even if he's deemed an upgrade on Perez, ideally a top team with championship ambitions shouldn't resort to turning to a driver who would have 11 starts under his belt by the start of 2025.
But - so late in this season, too - Red Bull's situation when it comes to its second car for next year is obviously far from ideal.
What about Lawson's replacement?
Red Bull junior and Formula 2 title contender Isack Hadjar is likely to replace Lawson and drive alongside Tsunoda at RB next season.
His case will be further boosted if he clinches the F2 championship - where he currently trails Sauber 2025 signing Gabriel Bortoleto by just half a point ahead of the two-race Abu Dhabi finale.
But regardless of the outcome of that round Hadjar is already facing favourable odds for an F1 promotion - as Red Bull’s interest in Franco Colapinto has cooled.
This has come in the wake of Colapinto's recent crashes, but also a a consequence of Red Bull finding it important to back its own academy driver rather than recruit another team’s.
