To invoke the word he used after the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix to describe the unfortunate safety car timing that cost him the lead of the race, Sergio Perez has endured a “painful” start to the 2022 Formula 1 season. But despite having just one fourth place to show for his efforts, he’s actually been in strong form to begin the year.
The 32-year-old headed into the campaign seen by some as a lame duck driver, guaranteed to be replaced for 2023. But there was always more to come than he showed during his patchy first season with Red Bull, and Perez was confident the start of a new-car project would make it easier for him to get on top of the machinery.
The 2021 Red Bull was a tricky machine – high-rake, oversteery at times and requiring a driver of Max Verstappen’s preternatural ability to extract the speed from it consistently. The vast majority of drivers would have struggled to do much better than Perez’s adjusted qualifying deficit of 0.479% over the season.
Perez had his moments last year and the high points showed exactly why Red Bull signed him. In Baku, he was perfectly placed to pick up the pieces after Verstappen’s tyre blowout, while in both Turkey and in particular Abu Dhabi he hindered Lewis Hamilton brilliantly. There was also the run of three consecutive podiums that breathed new life into Red Bull’s constructors’ championship bid.
Unfortunately, too many weekends weren’t at that level. There was just one other podium finish, in France, with a return of five top-threes in 22 races not good enough. It was abundantly clear that Perez needed to improve on that this year to have a shot at earning a third year with Red Bull.
It has started well. The Red Bull RB18 is a dramatically different car, one that is much better suited to Perez’s skillset. It’s a more understeery car, but not excessively so, that chimes better with Perez’s preferred driving style. Verstappen, of course, can drive anything so effortlessly adapted his style to a smoother, more progressive approach to match the car.
But it has allowed Perez to start the season closer to his team-mate. In Bahrain, he qualified 0.240s behind Verstappen, which wasn’t stunning but was within the notional three-tenths barrier the team has in mind for its number two driver. But in Saudi, he drove superbly in Q3, lapping seven tenths quicker than in any previous session and grabbing his first pole position.
That lap was an admirable showcase of the commitment he can have in a car that suits him and also showcased the tyre management skills Perez has used to great effect throughout his F1 career. He kept the tyre alive for the whole lap, banging in a brilliant last sector to make sure of pole position.
He executed the first stint of the race well, but then came the fateful decision to bring him in at the end of lap 15 after Ferrari had signalled its intent to pit the chasing Charles Leclerc. It was the right decision but there’s always the risk of a safety car, with Nicholas Latifi hitting the wall and causing exactly the situation Perez dreaded.
“We’re desperately disappointed for Checo because what an incredible lap yesterday to get that pole,” said Red Bull team principal Christian Horner after the race.
“He then converted that into the lead. He was controlling the race beautifully. We pitted on the lap that we discussed pre-race and then, bang: a safety car.
“And as we know with safety cars, sometimes they work with you, sometimes they work against you. And it was very unlucky for him.”
While he couldn’t recover from there and proved unable to attack Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz for third, having missed out on beating him out of the pits by the narrowest of margins, that one piece of luck had cost him a shot at victory. Whether he would have held on, or if he’d have either been passed by Leclerc or been instructed to let Verstappen by, is the subject of speculation. But the fact was he put himself in the position to win and was executing the race well before ill-luck intervened.
Red Bull is obviously keeping an eye out on Perez’s progress. He could have won in Saudi Arabia and would surely have been on the podium had the race played out as normal, while in Bahrain he’d have been third had his car lasted another five kilometres without suffering from the fuel vapour lock that cut power and caused his spin. Even if that problem had been entirely absent and Verstappen had not also stopped, he’d have been a solid fourth.
If Perez can sustain this level of performance – and that doesn’t mean beating Verstappen in qualifying half of the time, simply being in the ballpark – then Red Bull will give very serious thought to keeping him. That would be Perez doing exactly the strong support act job he was signed to do.
But what’s key is Perez sustains it. The high points weren’t a problem last year, it was about the overall consistency. Helmut Marko has indicated that Perez’s progress is monitored very closely and hinted that a decision for 2023 might come around the middle of the season. So far, Perez has done the job he’s needed for and therefore increased the probability of staying on. If he can keep going for the next dozen or so events, he is in a great position.
However, there’s no shortage of alternatives for Red Bull. Marko has also suggested Perez’s performances will be evaluated compared to those of Pierre Gasly at AlphaTauri. He’s done a consistently good job since relegation to what was then called Toro Rosso after a difficult half-season alongside Verstappen at Red Bull in 2019.
His season has started well, finishing eighth in Saudi Arabia and losing points in Bahrain through no fault of his own – and has been in Q3 at both events in a marginal top-10 car. Given what Gasly has produced over the past two-and-a-half seasons, it’s almost certain he’ll sustain this performance level, meaning his hopes of a Red Bull recall will depend on Perez underachieving combined with the team’s willingness to go back to a driver whose all-round approach didn’t chime so well with it.
And even if Gasly isn’t considered the right man for the job, there’s countless other options given the appeal of a Red Bull seat. Perez can’t assume incumbency and an unwillingness to return to Gasly will guarantee he stays on.
The wider driver market is by the by for Perez. What matters is he delivers and is as close to the perfect wingman to Verstappen as he can be. And make no mistake, that’s exactly what Red Bull has him in the team for, not through suppressing his performances but simply because history tells us how difficult it is to match up to a truly great driver as team-mate.
Just look at how it went for Valtteri Bottas, now tearing it up for Alfa Romeo in the midfield, when up against Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes.
If Perez can sustain this performance level, he is well-placed to retain his place at the team for 2023. It’s only been two races so far, both at tracks well-suited to his skillset, so he still has plenty to prove.
But there was always an upside to Perez after his difficulties in 2021 and, so far, he’s justified the confidence he’s a driver with the right skill set to support not only Verstappen’s drivers’ title aspirations but also Red Bull’s hopes of winning the constructors’ championship.
