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Formula 1 has rightly been getting excited about the fact it’s had seven different race winners so far in 2024, and six different winners over the past eight races as Red Bull has struggled to get the most from its previously dominant car.
But Spa is probably the peak circuit for reigning F1 world champion Max Verstappen and Red Bull in this ground effect era, so Fernando Alonso was cautioning against over-excitement that the tide has definitively turned against Red Bull amid the recent rise of McLaren and Mercedes.
“This track will be interesting because it has been dominated by Red Bull in the past, quite easily,” Alonso said on Thursday. “So if Red Bull does 1-2 here maybe we have a different opinion of all these different winners - maybe there is not as much competition as we think.”
The early signs are ominous. Verstappen was fastest in FP1 by more than half a second from Oscar Piastri’s McLaren, as Red Bull reverted Verstappen’s RB20 to its pre-Hungary engine cover and cooling configuration.
Soft ranking (overall)
1. Verstappen 1m43.372s
2. Piastri 1m43.903s
3. Albon 1m44.099s
4. Russell 1m44.225s
5. Hamilton 1m44.279s
6. Leclerc 1m44.306s
7. Perez 1m44.329s
8. Norris 1m44.415s
9. Sainz 1m44.574s
10. Stroll 1m44.699s
11. Gasly 1m44.833s
12. Alonso 1m44.921s
13. Ricciardo 1m44.950s
14. Bottas 1m45.155s
15. Sargeant 1m45.311s
16. Tsunoda 1m45.564s
17. Hulkenberg 1m45.645s
18. Magnussen 1m45.812s
19. Zhou 1m45.995s
Verstappen faces a 10-place grid penalty this weekend, owing to enforced engine component changes resulting from an unexpected failure during June’s Canadian GP - but if he keeps this up it might not be too difficult for him to still win this race.
On a recently resurfaced circuit that requires a downforce compromise between the low-drag, straightline-dominated first and third sectors and the higher downforce corner-dominated middle sector, Verstappen is almost otherworldly in his capacity to get through the middle sector at speeds his team-mates cannot fathom.
"It's a big mistake to think he can't go from P11 [where Verstappen will start if he's on pole] to P1," McLaren boss Zak Brown cautioned after FP1.
He was eight tenths quicker than Perez through sector two on their respective fastest laps, as Perez complained of struggling to feel the car properly on all corner entries.
Perez was still only four tenths off Piastri’s pace, helped no doubt by the Red Bull’s inherent aerodynamic efficiency making it almost ideally suited to the demands of Spa. If Perez can tune the Red Bull more to his tastes he should absolutely be a factor later in the weekend - and needs to be given the internal pressure building on his place in that team.
The other statement lap...
Following the furore over his furious exchanges with Red Bull during a difficult Hungarian Grand Prix, Verstappen was straight on the case at Spa.
His first flying lap of the entire weekend, on the hardest C2 tyre, was a 1m44.706s - good enough to place inside the top 10 overall in FP1 had he simply parked up in the garage after that run!
Before everyone threw on the soft (C4) tyre for initial qualifying simulations in the second half of the session, Verstappen’s first hard-tyred lap was good enough to beat anything anyone else managed in the early running - and the McLarens, Mercedes and Ferraris were all running the theoretically faster medium compound at that stage too…
Hard ranking
1. Verstappen 1m44.524s
2. Albon 1m45.807s
3. Perez 1m45.907s
4. Stroll 1m45.957s
5. Bottas 1m46.227s
6. Alonso 1m46.311s
7. Ricciardo 1m46.680s
8. Tsunoda 1m46.949s
9. Sargeant 1m47.245s
10. Magnussen 1m47.373s
Medium ranking
1. Russell 1m44.998s
2. Hamilton 1m45.207s
3. Piastri 1m45.288s
4. Leclerc 1m45.324s
5. Norris 1m45.544s
6. Sainz 1m45.549s
7. Gasly 1m45.553s
8. Hulkenberg 1m46.764s
9. Zhou 1m46.993s
That Verstappen was so immediately onto his pace, on the slowest tyre, and over a second up on what Perez could do on that same compound, suggests Red Bull has started this weekend with Verstappen’s car in an excellent spot. His long run laps later in the session were similarly impressive.
What of the rest?
A very impressive lap from Alex Albon’s Williams - which traditionally has an aero characteristic suited to Spa’s straight-line demands - was the anomaly among the frontrunners in FP1.
The Mercedes, running revised and upgraded floors for Spa, were slightly less impressive on the soft tyre compared to McLaren than they were on the medium, while the bouncing-limited Ferraris have started decently enough but presumably will drop off as the grip and speed ramps up and their car becomes more likely to run into that bouncing limitation as the ride height naturally drops.
Everyone will be limited in this regard by the compression through Eau Rouge, of course, but it remains to be seen if even a 10-place penalty can put a limit on Verstappen winning this race.
He has begun this weekend in a different league to the rest.
