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Mercedes has made no secret all season of considering Max Verstappen as an option to replace Lewis Hamilton in 2025.
Recent events mean its chance of swooping for Red Bull’s champion might actually be getting realistic.
As a symbol, Verstappen is the thorn in Mercedes’s side - the driver who began the fall of its dynasty.
He won his first race (Spain 2016) when the Mercedes drivers crashed into each other; he secured the 2021 drivers’ championship in circumstances that enormously aggravated Mercedes; and his rivalry with Hamilton still seems to be simmering away even as Verstappen has secured the last two championships in dominant fashion.
But Verstappen’s own temper has been simmering away too - and that simmer almost boiled over in Hungary, where the 2024 championship leader argued with his race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase over the radio before telling his critics to “f*** off” in the post-race media scrum.
Verstappen’s comments could be shrugged off as a temporary reaction to Red Bull’s strategy in Hungary, where Verstappen was twice undercut by the McLaren drivers and Hamilton, then careered off the track in a misjudged lunge on the Mercedes into Turn 1.
But his frustrations also reflect the general situation at Red Bull and that’s why Mercedes should take them seriously.
Which is remarkable given last year Verstappen was on top of the world - 19 grand prix wins, 21 podiums and 12 pole positions in one year, possibly unbeatable and he's seemingly certain to take the 2024 title too.
Then the rifts started to open at Red Bull when the allegations around Christian Horner erupted and Verstappen was caught in the middle of a war between his boss and his father Jos Verstappen.
Given that came soon after Hamilton announced he would leave Mercedes for Ferrari, some joined those dots with faint ink - and Wolff seemed to enjoy encouraging that.
In Jeddah in March, Wolff said: “We have a slot free, the only one in the top teams - unless Max decides he goes, and the slot is not going to be free with us anymore.”
Asked if Verstappen would be his top pick for the seat, he went as far as replying “yes - you see what his performance levels are”.
At that point, though, Red Bull’s performance levels were indisputable too, and that’s what Horner always had to throw back at Wolff.
In China three months ago, the Mercedes team principal implied that car performance is not the only factor that could tempt Verstappen.
“Clearly when you look at it from the most rational point of view, you can say 'well, that's the quickest car in the hands of the quickest driver',” said Wolff.
“But I don't think that this is the only reason you stay where you are. For, let's say, simple minds, that might be the only reason why you stay in the car and that's it.
“But maybe there's more depth to some people that consider other factors, too, and I think Max has more depth.”
That caught Horner’s ire.
“If you speak to Max, it’s not about pieces of paper, we know he has a contract until the end of 2028, it's about how he feels in the team and the relationship he has in the team and the way he’s performing," Horner retorted.
“I don’t think Toto’s problem is with his drivers, he’s got other elements that he needs to be focusing on rather than focusing on drivers that are unavailable.”
Ironically, Red Bull is now wrestling with its own ‘other elements’.
Of course, there are caveats to Mercedes’ pursuit of Verstappen.
One is the presence of highly-rated Mercedes junior Kimi Antonelli, who skipped Formula 3 to make his Formula 2 debut in 2024. The 17-year-old has impressed while testing older F1 machinery and he is highly rated by Wolff - but his F2 debut season hasn’t quite gone as planned.
Prema has struggled with the new F2 car and Antonelli has had some difficult moments, including a particularly testing sprint race in Hungary where he barrelled down the order - partly due to a poor choice of tyre by Prema.
The Italian responded with his first F2 feature race win on Sunday - but then he raised an alarm by saying: "I don't know if I will be ready [for F1 in 2025] to be honest”.
It would be a serious risk for Wolff not to pursue Antonelli. After all, he’s seen what Red Bull accomplished by snapping Verstappen up at the earliest opportunity.
But if Antonelli isn’t ready by his own admission, then perhaps the risk of signing the young Italian for 2025 is just too great. So Mercedes is right to keep its eyes open wider.
There’s also the fact that Mercedes is struggling to reflect its former championship-winning form. But in low temperatures, the W15 seems to sing; Hamilton won at Silverstone, for example.
Mercedes may be fourth in the standings and 81 points off third-placed Ferrari let alone 148 behind the leading Red Bull, but it’s gone from wins seeming a distant hope that might not even be achievable in the current regulations to winning two of the last three grands prix.
When Wolff and Horner started their sparring over Verstapen’s future, it didn’t seem like much more than another verbal game between those two old rivals.
Now Red Bull’s in trouble on track, Mercedes is in the ascendancy, Verstappen’s being openly critical of his team and Mercedes’ original 2025 ‘plan A’ is talking himself out of the drive in the short-term.
It’s the perfect time for Wolff to take advantage of Verstappen’s summer of discontent and bid for Red Bull’s reigning champion to replace Mercedes’ outgoing champion.
