Formula 1

Will Verstappen follow Newey to Aston Martin?

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Aston Martin's assertive recruitment from the rest of the Formula 1 paddock had already surely made it an intriguing long-term option for a lot of top drivers even before it secured Adrian Newey for 2025 and beyond.

But is the driver who's benefitted most from Newey's genius in recent years going to be among them?

The prospect of Max Verstappen following Newey from Red Bull to Aston Martin was raised by both johnboyalderman9482 and robbertstam1995 when we invited The Race's YouTube community to send in questions for our latest video.

And both Scott Mitchell-Malm and Edd Straw can envisage it - but not so much because Newey will make Aston Martin particularly appealing to Verstappen but because what Aston Martin is putting together is going to entice any driver.

"I can definitely see him angling for a way out of Red Bull and as much as we know [Verstappen's father] Jos Verstappen is quite keen on a Mercedes move, Max will view it completely objectively and will just go from a point of view of: 'What's going to give me the best chance to win and where am I going to enjoy racing?'" said Mitchell-Malm.

"Both of those answers could be Mercedes. Right now you would say Mercedes more than Aston Martin, even though Aston Martin's got a very, very high ceiling in terms of potential.

"Pragmatically, he'd have to be open to Aston Martin. I can’t think of any driver who wouldn't consider Aston Martin, apart from maybe someone like Charles Leclerc who's fully committed to Ferrari for the long term, or I don't think Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri are going to trade McLaren for Aston Martin at the moment.

"You have to get to only two or three really, really settled drivers before you get to someone where you think, 'They're not going to think about Aston'."

Straw agreed that Aston Martin only needs to deliver a little more consistently to become one of the most tempting destinations for a lot of drivers.

"The moment that team starts showing it can persistently fulfil its potential over more than half a season, as it did last year, there's going to be a lot of drivers interested in going there," he said. "There's no doubt about that."

Can Newey actually fix Aston Martin?

But as kevingarcia6368 put it in another question for our video, can Newey actually stop Aston Martin "being so disappointing"?

Last year's eight podiums and brief period of being Red Bull's main threat for race wins faded into fifth in the constructors' championship and 2024 has followed a similar competitive trend from a lower competitive starting point.

It's going to depend on what Newey finds at Aston Martin, said Mitchell-Malm, and whether there's a particular limitation in understanding or processes that is responsible for its current flatlining - and if so, whether that's a quick fix or one that will take years to resolve.

"I think Aston Martin still needs to get better before Newey arrives so it can make the most of him and doesn't waste his talents, because it's almost pointless him being there to influence specific areas," explained Mitchell-Malm.

"If he goes in and - as a general example of what he might find - just goes, 'The way that you are realising mechanical and aerodynamic interaction is just wrong in terms of how you're approaching it as a vehicle concept project, you need to restart that' then that's a big, big thing to redo and get on top of.

"And they won't be able to do that until the 2026 car at the earliest because Newey's not joining until the first quarter of 2025.

"If you fix that foundational element of the car, then how strong is that aerodynamic understanding and the ability to develop? Because there are big question marks over that over the last 18 months.

"When that team focuses on next year's car over the second half of a season and in the winter, it's good at coming up with a really solid place to start the season but it then seems to struggle with in-season development.

"Is that going to be linked to something specific that Newey will come in and identify that unlocks longer-term development as well? That will define everything else."

And what about the current drivers?

Fernando Alonso has extended his Aston Martin deal into F1's next rules era and Lance Stroll is considered an automatic fixture in the other car.

Is Alonso still delivering at the level he was in 2023 now the Aston Martin is less competitive? Does Stroll deserve the other seat?

Before even thinking about whether Verstappen or any other driver should supplant Alonso or Stroll, Mitchell-Malm said Aston Martin needs to give its current drivers a car that lets us judge them properly.

"Right now Alonso is reduced to heroic performances to score a handful of points, which is what he left behind at Alpine and isn't what he joined Aston Martin to achieve. He isn't going to win again like this," Mitchell-Malm admitted.

"For all of the question marks over Lance Stroll - and the level he's performing at at the moment won't be enough if Aston Martin is a title-challenging team or race-winning team - right now the drivers aren't the limitation.

"So it's wrong to focus on replacing someone like Stroll. I've no doubt that if Newey comes in, they address things, they make progress in 2025 and they have a genuine ambition of fighting for wins or a championship in 2026 with the Honda engine and everything else, Stroll will need to up his game and Alonso will need to prove that he is still capable of fighting for wins and championships.

"But there's more for that organisation to prove itself before the drivers are much of a question."

And the same point about Aston Martin needing to prove itself more right now applies to how Verstappen - and any other F1 driver with victory ambitions - will view it.

Regardless of who it's signed for its off-track roster, Aston Martin has to translate it into on-track progress now because Verstappen (or any other driver) will want to put his faith in something more tangible than unfulfilled future potential.

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