Mark Hughes: What's behind Red Bull's 'miracle' Qatar transformation

“Wow! That was a turnaround,” said Max Verstappen after setting the fastest lap in Qatar qualifying, having finished only an oversteering distant eighth in the sprint race earlier in the evening.

From sixth on the Sprint grid, 0.3s off pole, here he was half-a-tenth clear of the chasing pack in a car which felt a whole lot more connected up between front and rear after a rethink on set-up.

UPDATE: Verstappen loses Qatar GP pole: 'Complicated' penalty explained

“We changed a bit,” he said, “but I didn’t think it would make such a swing. It felt a lot more stable over one lap and gave me the confidence to push.”

The changes were just about the aero platform, explained tech boss Pierre Wache.

The wing levels remained the same. It was just about ride heights and damping and it was transformative.

From something which was edgy and oversteery on entry to the medium speed corners, but always fast through the flat-out blasts at the end of the lap, it was now nicely progressive into the slower turns but without losing the fast corner speed.

Sergio Perez’s pitlane start in the sprint had allowed the team to try out a direction – which seemed to hold promise.

“We then went a bit further in that direction,” Verstappen explained. In between times, at the Milton Keynes factory, hundreds of people were analysing data and the simulator was running full time, “and a miracle happened”, as Max put it. Pole - on the road - by half-a-tenth over George Russell’s Mercedes.

Just like yesterday, the Mercedes was enjoying the combination of smooth surface, fast corners and low track temperatures – and, like the Red Bull, was quicker down the straights than the McLaren, for which Lando Norris (leader of the sprint race from the start until deliberately handing the win to team mate Oscar Piastri just before the finish line), could qualify only third after a compromised Q3.

Russell did what he reckoned was “one of the best laps I’ve ever done” on his first Q3 run and that’s the lap which stood as second-quickest, as he was unable to improve on his next new set of tyres. Had he not had his prep lap interrupted by Verstappen two corners from the start of his push lap – he had to dip a wheel in the gravel – it might have made that half-a-tenth difference.

Although Verstappen had two sets of new softs available for Q3, he and the team preferred to do just a single multi-lap run. The tyre deg was low and the feeling at Red Bull was there was more to be gained by conditioning the tyres and staying out there. His first push lap would have stood as good enough for P2. Two cool-down laps later and he shaved a further tenth off and there he was, back on pole.

But because it was all a bit of a breakthrough, there’s no real knowledge on how the car will work over a 57-lap race.

“Yes, that’s a bit of question mark,” Verstappen admitted.

“Because there have been races recently where we’ve been quite close in qualifying but not strong in the race. So let’s see.”

After their 1-2 in the sprint, McLaren’s P3 and P4 on this grid probably left it a little disappointed. Both drivers did the conventional two Q3 runs, with new softs for each.

But Norris aborted the first of these and pitted after getting crossed up on the exit of Turn 5. He abandoned the first attack lap of his final run after getting in the turbulence of cars ahead, did a cool-down and only then finally completed his only proper Q3 lap. This was 0.25s adrift of Verstappen, 0.2s off Russell.

Even with a better sequence of runs, that would seem a lot to have found. Over a lap the McLaren really did seem to be only the third-fastest car here. It also found less from the faster track than the others (see below).

Norris
Sprint Q - 1m21.012s
GP Q - 1m20.772s
Improvement - 0.24s

Russell
Sprint Q - 1m21.075s
GP Q - 1m20.575s
Improvement - 0.5s

Verstappen
Sprint Q - 1m21.315s
GP Q - 1m20.52s
Improvement - 0.795s

“Yes, we weren’t really expecting a step,” said Norris. “The car was already good. Our car goes into its sweet spot quite well and not every team can do that. We’ve seen that quite a few times this year.

“We are losing 0.1s on the straight to George and Max before we even get to Turn 1. We hoped to get a bit of that back in high speed [corners] but because it’s almost flat, we didn’t really. We’re not in perfect window on wing level and could probably have done with taking some off. But hopefully that comes back to us in race.”

Charles Leclerc in the faster of the Ferraris was only fifth-quickest, around 0.3s adrift of the pace, very much inline with the team’s pre-weekend expectations here.

If the left-front tyre proves problematical for everyone, Ferrari may be in better race day shape, but its form in the sprint race was flattered by how much Norris was controlling the pace so as to keep Piastri within DRS range.

Lewis Hamilton was more competitive than in sprint qualifying but still trailed Russell by over 0.4s and only just shading Carlos Sainz’s Ferrari.

So there it’s poised. Far from certain at the front.