Mark Hughes: McLaren following Verstappen is key to early Spa edge

A low-drag wing for sectors 1 and 3, allowing you to overtake and/or defend? Or a higher downforce set-up, allowing you to be just as quick over the lap thanks to your speed in the long fast corners of sector 2 – and with likely better tyre deg? 

The usual Spa downforce dilemma is particularly acute this year as it plays out between the very closely matched Red Bull and McLaren cars. With Max Verstappen taking a 10-place grid penalty for his replacement power unit, the odds clearly favour Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at McLaren.

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While Verstappen has won comfortably here from as low as a penalised 14th on the grid (in 2022) and won here with a five-place penalty last year, that was back in the day when Red Bull had a big performance advantage.

How are they comparing here and what clues can we divine about what their respective downforce choices might be?

Given that the best starting position possible for Verstappen is 11^th, it might be imagined Red Bull would opt for a relatively low downforce set-up. Not so. Verstappen ran with the biggest wing of any one of the top four teams in FP1 and retained it into FP2.

McLaren ran the first session comparatively light on downforce and Oscar Piastri trailed by around 0.7s on single lap pace on the soft tyre. But both Piastri and Lando Norris moved towards a more Verstappen-like wing level in the second session – and suddenly the McLarens were 1-2, with Lando Norris having a couple of tenths over Verstappen (who was back with the standard ‘cannon’ bodywork and not the revised car seen in Hungary). 

FP2 long runs

The FP2 long runs reflected this McLaren form too, with Piastri averaging around 0.4s faster than Verstappen on the same Medium C3 tyre compound over the same number of laps (ignore the soft compound comparison between them as it reflected just the first four laps of the opposite approaches to what would be a much longer stint in reality – i.e with Piastri hitting it hard immediately, Verstappen gave the tyres a very gentle introduction).

More downforce, despite the loss of straightline speed was equalling better lap times single lap or long run. 

There are probably three factors driving this convergence to the higher downforce end of the Spa scale – at least for Red Bull and McLaren: 1 ) Saturday is forecast to be wet, pushing you towards more wing. 2) The tyre deg on the resurfaced track was significantly higher than most were expecting – again amplifying the benefit of more wing. 3) As we’ve seen a few times already this season, Red Bull and McLaren – with a handy advantage over Mercedes and Ferrari – seem to be gauging their choices based on what they need to combat each other.

Norris suggested as much when asked the downforce question. “In the rain you want higher downforce but I think that’s maybe the direction to go in anyway.” Norris was delayed in getting out for his soft-tyred long run, but the soft tyres are probably irrelevant anyway. Even in what is invariably a two-stop race in the dry, tyre deg means that the medium and hard will be favoured.

Of the top four teams only Red Bull ran the hard – Verstappen and Sergio Perez both trying it in FP1, with Verstappen proving very quick on it over a three-lap race fuel simulation. Could that have been a tactical error? McLaren (like Ferrari and Mercedes) has kept both sets of hards and given how much higher the deg was than expected on the new surface, perhaps medium/hard/hard will turn out to be the optimum choice. That is if race day is dry – which the current forecast suggests it will be. 

For all Norris’ strong form, he was not particularly at ease. “I’m not feeling very comfortable with car. We need to look at a few things. It looks good on the timing sheets but hopefully, I can get a bit more in the rhythm tomorrow. I don’t think it [needs] a lot. It’s not like we need to change the whole car overnight. I’m just not quite there in going out and nailing it.”

A step behind McLaren and Red Bull, Mercedes ran a higher level of downforce than Ferrari but on Friday’s form, Ferrari looked quicker. Both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, running their newly updated floor edge and diffuser, were complaining of bouncing .“We’re struggling across the full speed range of corners,” summarised Merc’s trackside chief Andrew Shovlin, “rather than in specific corners and the long run isn’t where we want it to be either. We have plenty of work to do and there’s a good chance we won’t get to evaluate it if there is wet running.”

But amid all this talk of downforce levels, one factor which should not be overlooked is plank wear. Last year the Red Bull’s greater downforce gave it a devastating advantage in single lap pace but in the race, both Verstappen and Perez had to be very cautious through Eau Rouge.

They were each lifting off through there to minimise the heavy grounding of the plank in the compression in order to ensure the car was legal at the end of the race. It was a luxury they could make with such an advantage over the lap. 

That advantage is no longer there. But Red Bull at least has experience now of how to deal with it. You may have heard Perez reporting how much Norris’ car was grounding through there. It was very notable on both Mercs too.  So it may be a case of how much downforce you dare to run and how you then manage it.

If you are Red Bull or McLaren, each eyeing the other, how do you make that judgement? Especially if FP3 is wet?  

If you are McLaren, you might err on the side of caution given that Verstappen can’t start any higher than 11^th. Only then might there be any complicating competition to consider between your own drivers. It’s a game theory bonanza, especially as you probably ideally don’t want to be leading into La Source on the first lap, given the slipstream you’ll be giving up to Les Combes...