The flurry of engine penalties set to be applied to the Monza Formula 1 grid looks set to present the thus-far unpenalised Charles Leclerc with a great opportunity for Ferrari at its home track. Especially as the F1-75 looks more competitive on raw pace than of late – and certainly way more competitive than at Spa where it last ran in low-downforce trim.
But will that be enough given that Max Verstappen’s Red Bull is set to take only a five-place penalty? Given that Verstappen has won races from 10th and 14th recently and that Monza is relatively easy for overtaking, Leclerc and Ferrari may have to get everything absolutely right – under big pressure – if it is to at least pull back a victory from Verstappen and thereby delay when the Red Bull driver might clinch his second title.
Although Verstappen was pipped to the fastest time in both practice sessions by Ferrari drivers, that was circumstantial – he was baulked by Lando Norris on his soft tyre lap in FP1 and did his best FP2 time earlier than Carlos Sainz, who pipped him after a red flag by which time Verstappen was into his long-run programme.
The underlying pattern suggests he may have a small single-lap advantage over Ferrari of around 0.1 seconds when both are on the soft tyre.
The gap appears bigger than that with both cars on the medium. The Red Bull, as expected, was faster in sectors one and three, comprising mainly straight-line running, with the Ferrari faster in the middle sector – where most of the corners are.
Ferrari split its long runs between the soft (C4) for Leclerc and the medium (C3) for Sainz. Red Bull concentrated on the medium for both Verstappen and Sergio Perez and ignored the soft. Mercedes looks less competitive here than around Zandvoort, as can be seen by both its single-lap pace and long-run averages.
FP2 LONG RUNS
| Driver | Soft | Medium | Hard |
| Leclerc | 1m25.91s (5 laps) | ||
| Hamilton | 1m25.94s (3 laps) | ||
| Verstappen | 1m26.09s (12 laps) | ||
| Sainz | 1m26.32s (6 laps) | ||
| Perez | 1m26.48s (7 laps) | ||
| Russell | 1m26.481s (6 laps) | ||
| Alonso | 1m26.62s (13 laps) | ||
| Norris | 1m27.17s (10 laps) | ||
| Ocon | 1m27.334s (7 laps) |
But with Verstappen, Sainz, Perez and Lewis Hamilton all taking grid penalties, George Russell surely stands a very realistic chance of starting from the front row. That said, Russell was edged out of fourth place by Lando Norris’s McLaren in FP2.
“Ferrari and Red Bull seemed to step forward in FP2 compared to us,” said Russell. “Maybe we took a step back because we were also behind a McLaren, so a bit of work to be done to understand that. Our deployment is lacking a bit around here. It’s similar to Red Bull’s but not as good as Ferrari’s. It makes me think it could be tricky in a race situation around here because they seem to have a bit more in their locker to play with.”
The implications of the various penalties will likely decide the towing attempts within the various teams. At Red Bull, with Perez set to take a 10-place hit and Verstappen only a five-place, there would seem no reason not to attempt to use Perez as Verstappen’s tow car.
Similarly, Sainz is set to start from the back with a full array of changed components so he is perfectly placed to tow Leclerc and not to attempt a serious flat-out lap for himself.
That sounds like a potentially exciting Verstappen/Leclerc showdown in Q3 – for the fastest time, if not the actual pole. At Mercedes, it would be logical for the penalised Hamilton to tow Russell. “Well, it’s George’s turn this weekend to choose,” said Hamilton, “so I’m expecting he’ll choose to go behind me and get a tow. I’ll just do my own thing.”
Russell however cautioned that the tow may not be his priority. “With the way our car is and how important getting the tyre preparation right is, the tow can be a high-risk strategy. High reward, but high risk too. We may just concentrate on doing a normal session.”
The cat and mouse game of getting in position for the tow – especially for the final Q3 laps – can result in losing more lap time through under-temperature tyres than is gained from the tow. The Mercedes generally requires a very hard out-lap, the Ferrari and Red Bull much better at firing the tyres straight up and therefore more flexible in positioning themselves for tows.
Although Norris’s single-lap pace was fairly strong, he was significantly outpaced in the long runs by Fernando Alonso’s Alpine. There’s definite potential here for them to reprise their great Zandvoort race day dice – and probably from quite a long way up the grid, given the penalty situation as so many teams have opted to get new power unit components into the system at a track where overtaking is easier than at subsequent tracks Singapore and Suzuka.
Without the intervention of safety cars, this should be a traditional Monza one-stop and given that the Ferrari’s straightline speed is strong, Verstappen may have to rely on strategy if he’s to take another of his low grid position wins here.
We could be set for a first stint Leclerc/Russell dice if Russell can get himself ahead at the start, followed by a Verstappen challenge on the home crowd’s hero Leclerc. What a prospect that is.
