Liam Lawson's dire start to the 2025 Formula 1 season has already put his Red Bull future in jeopardy if there is not a quick turnaround.
His showings so far - ending up 18th on the grid in Australia and 20th in both qualifying sessions held in China - are so far below expectations that Red Bull chiefs are already understood to be privately questioning whether he can deliver what the team needs.
Lawson had been promoted as a replacement for Sergio Perez over the winter because Red Bull wanted someone to be much closer to team-mate Max Verstappen and help bolster its F1 constructors' championship hopes.
However, things have turned out to be even worse - with Lawson's early form being the worst run of qualifying results for a Red Bull driver in its history.
As well as his Q1 exits, he crashed out of the season-opening Australian Grand Prix and even a push to finish 14th in the Chinese GP sprint was viewed by Lawson himself as not good enough.
"I'm in a Red Bull - finishing 14th, it's not really acceptable," he said.
Last-chance saloon
There is no suggestion that Lawson is in danger of being dropped immediately if he does not shine in the Chinese GP on Sunday.
However, it has emerged that the team views the next race in Japan in a fortnight as critical for it to decide where things go from there.
Lawson has faced a challenging set of circumstances with the season starting in Australia and China, at two circuits where he has not competed at in F1 before (he had never driven at Albert Park although he raced at Shanghai in Asian F3 back in September 2018).
But he is well-versed at Suzuka following his Super Formula campaign in 2023 and his AlphaTauri race there that season, in which he finished 11th, so the excuse of being a circuit novice will not stand up there.
Red Bull is baffled about why things have not clicked for Lawson, as there does not seem to be an obvious explanation for why things have been so bad.
For now, the team is publicly keeping a brave face on the situation - but its motorsport advisor Helmut Marko offered a clear hint that results would ultimately decide things.
Speaking to Sky Germany he said: "F1 is a performance sport and in the end that’s what counts."
Out of time?
Lawson himself appears to be well aware that Red Bull's patience may not last long if there is not a quick improvement.
Asked by The Race after qualifying in China about what was going wrong he said: "It's hard, you know?
"It's hard to drive, it's hard to get it in that window. And I'd love to say that with time obviously that will come.
"I just don't really have the time to do that. So it's just something that I need to get on top of."
While accepting the uncomfortable situation he was in, Lawson readily admitted that there was no excuse for delivering what he was while Verstappen has been battling for wins.
"It's just car characteristics, it's the way the car drives," he said. "But... obviously if Max is able to drive it, then I should be able to get on top of it as well."
While Red Bull hopes that Lawson can turn things around in Japan and get his season on track, it does at least have some options if there is no improvement and it feels a change is needed at some point.
The most logical option if it elects to make a change would be to go for a swap with Racing Bulls' Yuki Tsunoda, who has had an impressive start to the season.
Tsunoda had been an outside candidate for the second Red Bull seat at the end of last year, but in the end Red Bull decided that Lawson was a better option.
Asked at the Chinese GP if, despite his strong form with Racing Bulls, he would take a drive at Red Bull if it was available, Tsunoda - who was sixth in the sprint and qualified ninth for the main race - said: "Yeah, why not?"
Pushed on whether he wanted to drive the car, and would be up for it even at the Japanese GP, he said: "Japan? Yeah 100%, the car is faster."
