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Mercedes Formula 1 boss Toto Wolff’s concession that Max Verstappen will remain a Red Bull driver in 2025 all but guarantees Kimi Antonelli will be made George Russell’s team-mate.
Since learning in February that Lewis Hamilton would leave Mercedes for Ferrari next season, Wolff has been considering who to sign in his place.
The highly rated Antonelli, a Mercedes junior for several years, was immediately considered an option even though he was only 17 at the start of the year, had just won the Formula Regional European Championship (pictured below), and was yet to make his Formula 2 debut.
But Wolff also had designs on potentially luring Verstappen away from Red Bull as a series of problems engulfed the world champion team and Verstappen’s father Jos thought it was in Max’s best interest to move.
Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz was also in the picture, too, given Hamilton was taking his place. But Sainz never seemed like a serious option and was more of a back-up in case Verstappen stayed put and Antonelli’s development was insufficient. In any case, Sainz has now committed to joining Williams in 2025.
Wolff continued his pursuit of Verstappen for several months, despite the best efforts of Red Bull team principal Christian Horner to dismiss the prospect and insist there was no chance of Verstappen moving.
Conversations did persist and Wolff thought there was still a possibility until the summer break.
Speaking to Dutch media at Zandvoort this week, Wolff has conceded that Verstappen will stay at Red Bull after all. Mercedes and the Verstappen party have accepted that there is no deal to be done for 2025 and Wolff will not wait any longer on him.
He has not ruled out a move beyond 2025 - which raises the question of whether Russell would eventually be dropped to make room, given Antonelli is such a long-term prospect - but insisted that the priority will be giving full support to whoever the drivers may be next year rather than undermining them by lining up a replacement.
That driver line-up now looks certain to be Russell and Antonelli, the latter of which is set to make his official Mercedes debut next weekend with an FP1 outing on home soil at the Italian Grand Prix.
Antonelli has become a more legitimate choice in his own right, even though his age and experience level make him something of a wildcard regardless.
Antonelli’s rookie F2 season has gained momentum despite his Prema team struggling to adapt to a new car, and the Italian is seventh in the standings with a feature race victory and a sprint win to his name.
More importantly to Mercedes, though, is how he has impressed in an extensive private testing schedule, initially in the 2021 car but then exclusively in the 2022 machine. That programme has taken Antonelli to multiple circuits - Red Bull Ring, Imola, Silverstone and most recently Spa - and spanned more than 10 days.
Mercedes has become increasingly convinced that Antonelli has the ability and the temperament to step into F1 immediately. That’s even considered the case if Mercedes continues its impressive trajectory, and is fighting for regular wins in 2025
Back in April Wolff was arguing that Mercedes’ transition period, struggling for form, made it easier to take on a young rookie. But Mercedes has rapidly improved since then, won three of the last four grands prix, and at this rate could be back in championship contention next year.
That has not put Wolff off signing Antonelli, as learning in a frontrunning car will come with added pressure but will arguably be better than driving a recalcitrant or inconsistent car and risk being surrounded by others in the midfield.
A very serious and not at all tongue-in-cheek assessment of Kimi Antonelli's 2025 prospects from Toto Wolff: pic.twitter.com/0F9fjKCeVU
— The Race (@wearetherace) August 24, 2024
And ultimately Antonelli is seen as a driver of world champion calibre who is being prepared well by his 2022 car programme, and who Mercedes will be able to guide closely by having him in its own F1 team next year - rather than entrust his development to someone else by loaning him out.
