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Max Verstappen will head into November 23's Las Vegas Grand Prix Formula 1 weekend with a 62-point drivers' championship lead and could leave Nevada with his fourth-straight F1 title.
That's because there are 60 points available from the final two races; in Qatar there are 34 points available as it's a sprint weekend, and in the Abu Dhabi finale there are another 26.
In the event of a tie at the end of the year, the driver with the most GP wins will take the title. If the number of wins is also tied, it moves on to second places, then third, and so on, until there is a winner.
Verstappen has eight wins to Norris's three and with only three races left Verstappen can't be usurped on that front. So whatever happens, in the event of a points tie Verstappen would win.
That means Verstappen needs a 60-point lead at the end of the Las Vegas weekend to guarantee the title, two points fewer than he has over Lando Norris right now.
Put simply, if Verstappen finishes ahead of Norris in Vegas, he will seal the title. And he can afford to lose two points to Norris and still confirm the title too. The key numbers to have in mind are 59 and 60 - if the gap is 59 or lower, Norris still has a chance, if it's 60 or higher then it's all over.
Verstappen has started in the right way by qualifying fifth in Vegas, with - you guessed it - Lando Norris one place behind in sixth in a mixed up order after qualifying.
F1 grand prix points system
1st 25
2nd 18
3rd 15
4th 12
5th 10
6th 8
7th 6
8th 4
9th 2
10th 1
Fastest lap 1
To keep it open for at least another week Norris has to outscore by Verstappen by at least three points in Vegas. A win would achieve this, as would second or third place unless Verstappen is just one place behind and takes the fastest lap bonus.
If Norris finishes fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh or eighth he needs Verstappen to be more than one position behind him and not to have the fastest lap bonus.
Ninth and fastest lap is the minimum Norris needs, and that only prevents Verstappen clinching the title if Verstappen fails to score at all.
All the Vegas scenarios
If Verstappen is…
1st: He’s champion
1st + FL: He’s champion
2nd: Norris needs to win
2nd + FL: Norris needs to win
3rd: Norris needs 1st or 2nd
3rd + FL: Norris needs to win
4th: Norris must finish in front of Verstappen
4th + FL: Norris must get 1st or 2nd
5th: Norris must be in top three or 4th + FL
5th + FL: Norris must be in top three
6th: Norris must be in top four or 5th + FL
6th + FL: Norris must be in top four
7th: Norris must be in top five or 6th + FL
7th + FL: Norris must be in top five
8th: Norris must be in top six or 7th + FL
8th + FL: Norris must be in top six
9th: Norris must be in top seven or 8th + FL
9th + FL: Norris must be in top seven
10th: Norris must be in top eight
10th + FL: Norris must be in top seven or 8th + FL
Doesn’t score: Norris must be in top eight or 9th + FL
If it goes on to Qatar...
Even if Norris manages to get the margin down to 59 or lower in Vegas, he faces a very tall order to turn things around sufficiently to still take the title.
If it does move on to Qatar, the maths get more complicated on account of the points for the sprint race in addition to the grand prix.
These are paid out to the first eight finishers, from eight points for winning the sprint down to one for finishing eighth. This creates the possibility of Verstappen clinching the title on a Saturday for the second year in a row, just as he did in the 2023 Qatar sprint.
F1 sprint race points system
1st 8
2nd 7
3rd 6
4th 5
5th 4
6th 3
7th 2
8th 1
