Red Bull is widely expected to confirm this week that Liam Lawson will be replaced by Yuki Tsunoda at the Japanese Grand Prix.
Finally giving Tsunoda a chance at its top team should come with keen support from Red Bull’s Formula 1 engine partner Honda, which is likely to throw financial backing behind the switch.
Honda has always been Tsunoda’s primary supporter and helped fund his seat at Red Bull’s second team until his most recent contract renewal last year, but has continued to contribute in a marketing capacity.
It was also behind his post-season test appearance for Red Bull in Abu Dhabi last year.
A Tsunoda promotion would be a huge opportunity for Honda, as it has been 13 years since a Japanese driver scored a podium and the country has never had a consistent frontrunning driver in F1.
Honda is still Red Bull’s engine partner until the end of the year and owns the Suzuka circuit that will host next week’s race in Japan.
And Honda has previously said it would support Tsunoda, or any of its proteges, in having a successful F1 career outside its own programme - so would be keen to pave the way for Tsunoda to have a potential long-term Red Bull Racing future, even though Honda will switch to Aston Martin next season.
Nothing has been confirmed by Red Bull, but it appears to be in the final stages of organising the switch of seats.
If it goes ahead as expected, Tsunoda’s Red Bull debut would not only come at his home race, but his first official engagement as a Red Bull driver would be appearing at a long since planned show run in Tokyo on the Wednesday before the race.
Lawson only replaced Sergio Perez as Max Verstappen’s team-mate for the start of this season, but has had two terrible events.
He crashed out of the season opener in Australia trying to hang on on slicks when it rained, having only qualified 18th for his Red Bull debut.
A week later he was slowest in qualifying for the sprint race in China, finished that 14th, and qualified slowest again for the main grand prix.
That meant by Saturday of the Chinese Grand Prix weekend, as reported by The Race, Lawson’s poor start already had team bosses questioning whether a shock early driver change might be needed - before Lawson had started his second race.
It was then reported on Sunday in Shanghai by Motorsport.com that a change with Tsunoda could come as early as the Japanese Grand Prix, something team boss Christian Horner refused to rule out after the race in China - which Lawson finished 16th on the road.
Asked by The Race if a change could be made for Japan, Horner replied: “There's always going to be speculation in the paddock.
“We've only just finished the race here, we'll take away the info and have a good look at it.”
Reputed Dutch publication De Telegraaf, which has close ties with the Verstappen camp and has always been a reliable source for Red Bull news, now reports that Lawson’s exit has been agreed after a meeting between senior Red Bull figures in Dubai, where Thai majority shareholder Chalerm Yoovidhya lives.
It means Lawson is likely to be sent back to the second team before even starting a grand prix from the grid for Red Bull, as his qualifying went so badly at both events that Red Bull broke parc ferme on both occasions to make car changes, causing him to start from the pitlane both times.
Lawson’s demotion back to the second team - which he competed in just 11 grands prix for, across two part-seasons, before being moved up to Red Bull Racing - should be straightforward as even though this is an extreme case, Red Bull’s driver contracts allow for such team relocations.
The same goes for putting Tsunoda into Red Bull Racing, even if that part of the deal may have a little more detail required because of any commercial deals attached to it.
Not even getting the Japanese GP at Red Bull will be an even more bitter blow for Lawson than simply being dropped so early, given it was going to be the first race on a track he was familiar with.
Lawson knows Suzuka from his Super Formula campaign in 2023 and his F1 race for AlphaTauri there that same year.
But Red Bull opting for drastic, short-term action, will deny Lawson the chance to use that as a springboard, and at best he will now need to rebuild his confidence and stock at the second team again.
Tsunoda was widely believed to be the most appropriate successor to Perez in the first place. He was, by some distance, the most experienced option after Daniel Ricciardo’s mid-season exit last year, and in extremely good form for Red Bull’s second team.
But Red Bull felt it couldn’t trust Tsunoda because of lingering doubts about his emotional control and how he would handle the pressure of being alongside Verstappen.
That was at odds with feedback from senior figures at Tsunoda’s own team, though, and he also seemed to impress Red Bull in his post-season test appearance.
Now he seems poised to get the chance he has been desperate for, even in the face of Lawson’s struggles and what has befallen his predecessors.
In China, Tsunoda said he would “always” take the chance to drive for Red Bull, and when asked if he would want to do so in Japan, replied: “Japan? Yeah, 100%. The car is faster.”
