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We are now at the halfway point of the 2024 season, with 12 races down and 12 to go. You’d have expected the competitive order to have settled down by now, but that’s not happened yet.
What has emerged this season is the closest competition since these ground effect regulations came into play at the start of 2022. Each weekend the grid is usually covered by less than two seconds, which is as close as it’s ever been in F1. But there’s still plenty of patterns and trends to find if you look closely enough.
To allow for the variation in circuit lengths, conditions and the fact that every team gets it wrong sometimes, I have taken each driver and teams’ fastest single lap of a race weekend and converted that into a percentage of the fastest overall. For example, if one driver or team was fastest on all 12 weekends, they would end up with an average of 100.000%, so the closer to that figure the nearer you are to perfection.
I’ll work through the teams in constructors’ championship order as this is a good measure of all-round performance. If you have a fast car, you should score big points but if you don’t it tells you that something is going wrong as a team as mistakes or underperformance by the team and/or driver(s) have limited the points return.
As has been usual for recent years, I’ll start with Red Bull and let the numbers do most of the talking.
1 RED BULL
CHAMPIONSHIP POSITION: 1st
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 100.106%
Red Bull hasn’t dominated F1 like it did last year, but it’s not easy to do that and its record of seven wins and eight pole positions across a dozen races is still outstanding.
Despite that impressive record, this year has been different though, and the question is why?
You would expect this to an extent because these rules have now been more or less stable since the start of 2022. But Red Bull pushed the boat out for this season with some very obvious visual changes to the sidepod concept, but key to its success has been how much Max Verstappen relishes getting involved in a dog fight.
He knows how to win races and, other than Austria where he got a bit hot-headed, he has at times taken Red Bull to wins that even they didn’t believe was possible.
Red Bull’s problem is that it needs to run the car very stiff vertically to keep it within its ride-height window for performance and also to avoid hitting low ride height porpoising problems.
It has been able to manage that for two seasons, but now others have closed in it can’t afford to trade off that little bit of pace to ease that difficult ride.
Verstappen vs Perez
Verstappen points: 255
Perez points: 118
Verstappen average performance: 100.106%
Perez average performance: 100.948%
How difficult it has been is reflected in the comparison of the two drivers. Without Verstappen, Red Bull would likely just be another team at the front and there’s a desperate need for Sergio Perez to do better.
He scored well enough early on, but he’s only managed 15 points across the last six races and that’s well below what this car is capable of even if it is difficult to drive.
The big question is whether Red Bull’s concept and the need to run so stiff is the best possible compromise, or if other teams will consistently overtake it.
Currently, it still has probably the fastest car at its peak, but that’s a narrow window and it’s no longer the best all-round car.
2 FERRARI
CHAMPIONSHIP POSITION: 2nd
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 100.488%
Assessing Ferrari is difficult because it goes up and down like a yo-yo. When it’s good, such as at Monaco, it’s very good but when it’s bad like in Canada, it’s very bad.
Monaco’s low-speed configuration suited the car well as it goes well in slow corners and rides bumps and kerbs well. Having said that, Carlos Sainz was behind a McLaren and could have been behind Max Verstappen, so how much of that weekend was down to Charles Leclerc being an Ayrton Senna-style Monaco specialist?
Leclerc vs Sainz
Leclerc points: 150
Sainz points: 146
Leclerc average performance: 100.593%
Sainz average performance: 100.749%
What’s worrying is that after developing the car well over the previous year or so, improving the consistency and rear-end stability, it's struggled to get the benefit from its most recent new components because they put the car on that porpoising knife-edge.
When you get in that small window, the way to ease it is to raise the car or stiffen it but this costs performance elsewhere.
So while the Spanish GP upgrade is working as expected in terms of load, the bouncing problem means the benefit isn’t really there. How it responds in the coming races will be key.
Both drivers have proved themselves capable of scoring big points, but until Ferrari gets out of its current hole it’s going to be fourth best. But given Perez is struggling at Red Bull, a quick reaction to these problems means that Ferrari could hang in there in the constructors’ championship while the design group is restructured after the departure of technical director Enrico Cardile to Aston Martin.
Has he made way for Adrian Newey for 2025? Watch this space…
3 McLAREN
CHAMPIONSHIP POSITION: 3rd
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 100.383%
McLaren has become a real force to be reckoned with. That’s remarkable progress given that at the start of 2022, it could barely do a quick lap without cooking the brakes.
Since the package introduced at the Miami Grand Prix in early May, McLaren has been a consistent threat for pole position and wins. What’s most impressive is that when upgrades appear, they work. That confirms the understanding of the car and the requirements for achieving good performance are in parallel.
The problem is McLaren isn’t quite there as a team when it comes to pitwall decisions. As we saw in Canada and Britain, choices can be made too slowly and there seems to be to big a fear of making the wrong decision. Lando Norris always blames himself, but the team must bear that responsibility - and has rightly in recent races.
Now McLaren has what is perhaps the best all-round car, even if the Red Bull is quicker when in the window, it needs to make better use of it in the second half of the year.
Norris vs Piastri
Norris points: 171
Piastri points: 124
Norris average performance: 100.403%
Piastri average performance: 100.598%
The combination of Norris and Oscar Piastri is a well-balanced one, but since that Miami win neither has had a great run of luck. And as you always find with a car that’s working well, both will start making fewer mistakes.
4 MERCEDES
CHAMPIONSHIP POSITION: 4th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 100.557%
It’s been a long haul for Mercedes since the ground effect regulations were introduced in 2022 and the first part of this season wasn’t any different. But recent races have been a real eye-opener and it really does seem that Mercedes has finally cracked it.
For the last three events, Mercedes has been in the mix for pole positions and wins. George Russell’s Austria win was the result of the late-race collision between Norris and Verstappen, but he was right there to reap the rewards. And what was so impressive at Silverstone was the front-row lockout and Mercedes running one-two comfortably in the first part of the race before the rain came.
Hamilton’s victory proved that Mercedes still knows how to win when the chance arises. Provided, that is, Toto Wolff doesn’t jump on the radio at an awkward moment.
There’s still a little more work to be done to get on terms with Red Bull and McLaren at high-downforce tracks, but Mercedes is now on the right development path and is proving it can perhaps be a title threat in 2025.
We’ve seen recently that the car is now more consistent and appears to be able to run low without the inconsistencies of the past.
The front wing introduced at Monaco was key to that as it produced more consistent airflow coming off the front wing trailing edge improving the consistency of the performance of the underfloor.
It also introduced a new front central spring and damper unit that has a larger diameter and uses a pack of bevel washers as the springing medium so in effect, it gives the team tighter control over the front ride height at high speed.
Russell vs Hamilton
Russell points: 111
Hamilton points: 110
Russell average performance: 100.616%
Hamilton average performance: 100.794%
Russell has been stronger in qualifying and is probably better at coping with a difficult, underperforming car than Hamilton. But the seven-time world champion knows what a winning car feels like and is always chasing it, while Russell is more used to accepting what he’s got and doing his best with it.
With Mercedes set to end this year with a competitive car, the question of Hamilton’s replacement is now a tougher question. Kimi Antonelli has massive potential but needs to prove it consistently and he surely needs a season to cut his F1 teeth before being thrown into a possible championship fight next year.
5 ASTON MARTIN
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 5th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.019%
Aston Martin’s trajectory over the last 18 months has been the opposite of McLaren and Mercedes. It took time for the team to get its head around the new regulations but started 2023 with a bang and only lost out on a win or two because of Red Bull’s total domination. Unfortunately, developments have tripped the team up.
Porpoising has been a problem recently, although the team seemed to get on top of that at Silverstone. Whether that’s down to track configuration, temperatures or the fact that it’s no longer a high-downforce track is unclear but there are similarities with the problems Mercedes had early in the year. There’s an upgrade package planned for Hungary and it’s vital this improves those problems.
The team's recent spate of hiring leaves me hating to think what the wage bill is, but it must be massive. The new factory is a huge investment, which means Lawrence Stroll has dug deep into his pockets, and you have to wonder if his patience must be wearing a bit thin. That’s not good for the motivation of the people already there and the fact is that you can’t simply buy success in F1.
The second and third buildings are almost complete at its Silverstone campus, which means that the model-making facilities and the additional manufacturing department are now in use as is the new gearbox dyno.
However the third building which contains the new windtunnel isn’t fully up and running yet. Making the best use out of these new toys will play a big part in whether the team can fulfil its potential.
Alonso vs Stroll
Alonso points: 45
Stroll points: 23
Alonso average performance: 101.151%
Stroll average performance: 101.394%
It's also in a quandary driver-wise. Fernando Alonso is getting a bit long in the tooth, this doesn’t stop him from putting in 100% effort when the car is reasonable but lately when the car is not as good as he needs, he seems to have lost that edge of motivation. As for Lance Stroll, when the car is good he puts in decent performances but it’s too easy for his form to drop off.
To be a title threat in the future, this is a team that will need to upgrade its drivers given Alonso’s age and Stroll’s inconsistency.
6 RB
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 6th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.236%
RB has at times been a strong top 10 contender but in the doldrums at other races, so I’m surprised at how inconsistent it is.
The close association with Red Bull should bring RB to a better level than it is, but there’s still clearly a desire to do its own thing as while most of the Red Bull mechanical package is used, it’s gone in a different direction aerodynamically.
That’s not necessarily wrong, it just means RB is not making the best of its close association with Red Bull. It's concerning that its Spanish GP upgrade didn't work as hoped, with the big problem being achieving consistency through-corner balance, meaning that at Silverstone, RB only ran about half of that package.
Tsunoda vs Ricciardo
Tsunoda points: 20
Ricciardo points: 11
Tsunoda average performance: 101.351%
Ricciardo average performance: 101.613%
Driver-wise, the distraction of Helmut Marko’s weekly update about who might be sacked and the rumours of Perez being replaced never helps.
Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda are both competent drivers who need to be left alone to get on with it.
It’s clear Ricciardo isn’t at his level of the past, but he’s doing fine for a team at this level and seems to have put his early-season struggles behind him.
7 HAAS
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 7th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.236%
Haas has been the surprise of the season. Having talked down its chances all winter, it’s gone from having a car that was fast at times over the previous couple of seasons but, in particular last year, ate up its tyres, to one that is still quick, if not quicker, and has dramatically reduced the tyre degradation problem.
Part of that is down to improved communication between the trackside team based in the UK and the design hub at Maranello. It also shows the lessons have been learned and there’s now a clear focus on getting the best out of the car on any given weekend.
There’s also been good progress in tackling weaknesses. Early in the year, the Haas wasn’t so good in high-speed corners but that has now improved. It’s been replaced by a weakness in medium-speed turns that the team has admitted it doesn’t entirely understand. But it’s still a good all-round package as even on weekends when Haas hasn’t scored points, it’s been a serial 11th-place finisher.
Hulkenberg vs Magnussen
Hulkenberg points: 22
Magnussen points: 5
Hulkenberg average performance: 101.479%
Magnussen average performance: 101.980%
Nico Hulkenberg has been one of the stars of the season and he will be a big loss next year when he heads to Sauber/Audi, while Kevin Magnussen has not contributed enough points, he seems to be a magnet for trouble and appears to have lost his mojo.
With Ollie Bearman, who showed with his Ferrari debut that he is potentially one for the future replacing, Hulkenberg next year it still might need to find another driver to partner him. That gives some of the remaining 2025 free agents a chance at an upgrade given Haas's impressive 2024 so far.
8 ALPINE
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 8th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.319%
During pre-season testing the Alpine looked like a complete disaster. Not just overweight, the car also looked all over the place from trackside and that continued into the first part of the season. It’s not fully recovered, but Alpine has at least been in a much better position and a consistent minor-points scorer recently.
Alpine is a team that has been in some turmoil for a while. Everyone is either leaving or getting replaced and that means instability. The chassis side blames Renault for its slightly underpowered engine, and vice versa. To fix this, you have to take responsibility.
That’s a task that falls on new executive technical director David Sanchez’s shoulders, we should see his impact from the next round of upgrades on a car that’s now not got a weight problem, but is still lacking in terms of traction, lower-speed front end and all-round downforce.
Flavio Briatore has come in as ‘executive advisor’, so some sort of consultancy role that probably means he’s actually calling the shots. He has the experience and doesn’t mind upsetting the applecart because he’s in a position where he can do that, then walk away until the dust settles.
The situation has become so crazy that Renault-owned Alpine is talking to Mercedes about a power unit supply. Over the years, Renault has been in and out of F1 more times than most and this potentially seems to be another example of that.
Gasly vs Ocon
Gasly points: 6
Ocon points: 3
Gasly average performance: 101.713%
Ocon average performance: 101.756%
Complicating that turmoil is the fact there’s no love lost between the two drivers. Pierre Gasly usually keeps his nose clean and is a hard racer, so is doing a decent job, but Esteban Ocon has shown on too many occasions that he has no respect for his team-mates.
Because of his antics in Monaco with Gasly, Ocon is on his way at the end of the season (read fired). If Alpine is still in business next year it needs to replace him with someone like Sainz or a young hotshot from F2 to bring on for the future.
9 WILLIAMS
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 9th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.564%
Williams took on too much during the design and build period for the 2024 car, leading to a panic to make pre-season testing. While the monocoque is much lighter, the car overall is still overweight and hasn’t been a step forward from last year.
With accidents and incidents, both drivers contributed to slowing the development plan, simply having car parts to get two cars on the grid became the biggest challenge. Logan Sargeant had to miss one race as Alex Albon took over his chassis because of a major accident, which is inexcusable.
We keep hearing about how Williams is building for the future and has been underfinanced for years. This is correct but you also need to show that you are on top of the current situation and while talk is easy, the results are what counts.
Growing is a difficult thing. Placing everyone in the correct position is never easy and Williams could very easily find themselves in this position for a reasonable amount of time.
As long as the people paying the bills are happy enough then it will probably be 2026 before we see if that building process has been successful.
Albon vs Sargeant
Albon points: 4
Sargeant points: 0
Albon average performance: 101.564%
Sargeant average performance: 102.312%
Driver-wise, Albon has always impressed me. He has signed a long-term deal with Williams, but I think he deserves a shot with a current frontrunning team.
As for Sargeant, anyone who can actually drive one of these cars is a component driver but he doesn’t seem to be improving and makes too many mistakes. It’s probably time to head off to IndyCar and there is zero shame in that.
10 SAUBER
CONSTRUCTORS’ CHAMPIONSHIP: 10th
TEAM AVERAGE PERFORMANCE: 101.919%
Sauber has been the biggest letdown in F1 over the past couple of seasons. It’s gone nowhere since Audi took over and the progress towards becoming a full works team in 2026 has not been impressive.
There’s no excuse for Sauber not showing its potential by being competitive against Williams and Alpine, which it isn’t right now (see below).
The team is based in Switzerland, so it’s not quite as easy to poach someone from a team just down the road when it comes to the ongoing recruitment process, but that shouldn’t stop Sauber from improving to some level of competitiveness.
The car has ride problems, particularly when landing after a bump or kerb, and struggles in the higher-speed corners. There are upgrades coming but a big step is needed to emerge as a points scorer.
To have zero points after 12 races is not what Audi wants to see and I am surprised that it hasn’t started to infiltrate Sauber with its own engineers. Or perhaps Audi has and it’s not showing it to the outside world. Whatever the reason, this team is underperforming badly.
Bottas vs Zhou
Bottas points: 0
Zhou points: 0
Bottas average performance: 101.919%
Zhou average performance: 102.517%
On his day, Valtteri Bottas can do a good job, but has he given up? As for Zhou Guanyu, the jury is still out. He showed in China at his home race that he can raise his game but unfortunately, that was about it and it’s almost certain he won’t be on the grid next year.
CONCLUSION
Thankfully it’s more or less impossible to predict who is going to win or even be on the podium for the next few races given how close F1 is at the front now. That’s much better for the fans than the past two seasons.
Perhaps Red Bull will find its cushion again? Perhaps Ferrari will sort out its problems? Maybe Mercedes or McLaren, both of which have two very competitive drivers, will dominate the second half of the season?
These are questions only the next 12 races will answer. I just hope that the battle for both championships lasts as long as possible this year.
