Gary Anderson: Adjusted F1 test times hint at Ferrari advantage

The first pre-season Formula 1 test at Barcelona gave us our first indication of the competitive order, and it seemed like business as usual with Mercedes fastest ahead of Red Bull.

But to help us understand a little better what the order appears to be, we can recalculate all of the best times of every driver to see what their pace would have been adjusted to the C4 tyre.

Pirelli says the C4 was one second faster than the C3 and that the C5 was 0.4 seconds faster than the C4. That makes some sense because the C5 tyre is a bit soft for Barcelona. Basically, you overwork the tyres in the fast corners in first two sectors then struggle in sector three as a result.

That is not a fault of the tyre, it is just the fact that high-speed, high-load corners are just a bit too much for Pirelli’s softest tyre, which will not be available on the Spanish Grand Prix race weekend. That’s why I haven’t adjusted the time for the C5, given there will be variation in the way that different cars and drivers manage that tyre over a lap.

It’s also a reason for not paying to much attention to individual sector times. If you were to use two or three sets of the C5 tyre and only push in one sector on each set then adding up those three best sector times you could probably do a blistering lap time, however on one set it wouldn’t be possible to repeat.

So this is the performance order of the teams from the actual test times of their fastest driver and the tyre that they achieved it on. I have also put the time achieved by each team’s other driver (note I didn’t say second driver) and also the tyre used to achieve that time.

Actual fastest Barcelona times

Now to take the same list and convert the times to what we believe they would all have achieved on the C4 tyre. This is using Pirelli’s tyre offset, so if a C3 was used the time is reduced by one second, if it was the C5 used then 0.4s is added.

Only one driver, Yuki Tsunoda, set his time on the harder C2 compound so I have reduced his time by an extra second to account for this.

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Below is the order we end up with, and from what we saw on track it’s not far off.

It doesn’t take into account any fuel load differences as while this can have a big impact, any figure we use would be a guess.

But I’ve looked back at what we’ve seen in the past from each team in terms of testing fuel loads to add a little extra context.

I’ve used the 2020 test to the first race as the comparison given 2021 was affected by the carryover cars that impacted some more than others.

1 Ferrari

Adjusted C4 times: Leclerc 1m18.689s / Sainz 1m19.072s
2020 test: 4th fastest / 2020 first race: 5th fastest

Ferrari’s performance from testing to the first race did not change much two years ago. So relative to the other top teams, it was perhaps 10kg lighter in testing.

The other quick thing to add here was that Leclerc’s 1m19.683s on the C3 tyre was done on his third timed lap of a 17-lap run, so I genuinely think Ferrari will be in contention when you consider the fuel he would have been carrying.

If you take the fuel load required for that run and them switch to C4s a 1m17.6s is on the cards.

2 Red Bull

Adjusted C4 times: Verstappen 1m18.756s / Perez 1m19.556s
2020 test: 2nd / 2020 first race: 2nd

Red Bull held position in 2020, showing it didn’t go for a glory run.

And similar to Leclerc, Verstappen’s 1m19.756s on the C3 tyre was his first timed lap on a 15-lap run so was not light-fuel.

3 McLaren

Adjusted C4 times: Ricciardo 1m19.288s / Norris 1m19.568s
2020 test: 6th / 2020 first race: 3rd

If history repeats itself as far as fuel loads are concerned then McLaren is in even better shape than in 2020.

4 Mercedes

Adjusted C4 times: Hamilton 1m19.538s / Russell 1m19.633s
2020 test: 1st / 2020 first race: 1st

No shift in position shows Mercedes didn’t go in for glory runs in testing two years ago.

On the final day and final hour last week Hamilton did have a few runs at getting a time out of the C5 tyres. And they were all one-timed-lap runs so maximum effort on achieving the best lap time possible.

5 AlphaTauri

Adjusted C4 times: Tsunoda 1m19.638s / Gasly 1m19.918s
2020 test: 8th / 2020 first race: 7th

An improvement in the correct direction in 2020 might just mean that in testing, there’s a little more in the tank to give (no pun intended).

6 Aston Martin

Adjusted C4 times: Vettel 1m20.224s / Stroll 1m20.920s
2020 test: 5th / 2020 first race: 4th

Like AlphaTauri, what was then Racing Point improved in the right direction from testing to race weekend when it last had a new car so might have been running slightly heavier than others last week.

7 Alpine

Adjusted C4 times: Alonso 1m20.242s / Ocon 1m21.164s
2020 test: 3rd / 2020 first race: 6th

If the past is anything to go by, Alpine is open to a glory run in testing.

But because it had problems on the final day of the Barcelona test, I doubt it had the opportunity to do so this year. And it suggested it was running heavy fuel throughout given the DRS issue it was stuck with.

8 Williams

Adjusted C4 times: Albon 1m20.318s / Latifi 1m20.699s
2020 test: 7th / 2020 first race: 9th

Like Alpine, its relative performance dropped away between testing and the first race in 2020.

9 Haas

Adjusted C4 times: Mazepin 1m20.512s / Schumacher 1m20.949s
2020 test: 10th / 2020 first race: 8th

Haas’s relative performance trend was in the correct direction two years ago, which should serve it well if it does the same this year. But it’s going to be as close down the back as it is up the front.

10 Alfa Romeo

Adjusted C4 times: Zhou 1m20.855s / Bottas 1m21.288s
2020 test: 9th / 2020 first race: 10th

Alfa Romeo had a troubled test so it’s difficult to read much into its performance.

But over the past couple of years it has been bogged down towards the back of the pack and from this test I don’t see any reason to expect much to change.

So from a potential fastest time of 1m18.689s to a slowest time of 1m21.228s, we have a time difference of 2.539s. With 20 cars that’s an average gap of just over a tenth of a second between each. When you look at the extent of these changes that’s mighty impressive.

I’m pretty sure that there were a few teams who were sandbagging slightly with engine maps etc, but the next test in Bahrain will give us another set of figures to look at.

We will also see how teams have attacked this porpoising problem. Have they managed to fix it without losing performance or have they taken a hit?

The first test only gave us a vague indication of performance so the above times shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But it does give us our first look at the possible competitive order for 2022.