Up Next
Carlos Sainz has long been the key domino in Formula 1’s 2025 driver market. His decision to sign for Williams will have knock-on effects for several other teams and drivers.
It also effectively confirms several other likely eventualities that should allow what has been perhaps the most unpredictable F1 silly season ever to be wrapped up.
Who Audi turns to now
Valtteri Bottas was Williams’s fallback if Sainz didn’t sign, but talks are also ongoing with his current team who Sainz also snubbed. It’s unclear what incoming Audi F1 boss Mattia Binotto’s view is on who should partner Nico Hulkenberg, but Bottas is by far and away the most suitable choice.
He’s the most accomplished free agent on the market, is still operating at a high level, has the experience the struggling team desperately needs and offers continuity.
Sauber’s other options are limited. Zhou Guanyu could stay on but even factoring in the regular bad luck that has punctuated his season and his strengths as a team player, he hasn’t been at Bottas’s level.
Beyond that, Sauber would have to choose from either those rejected by other teams, for example, Kevin Magnussen, or promising rookies such as Theo Pourchaire.
What’s not entirely clear is what the timeline for any Sauber decision is. The team would ideally need to act quickly, perhaps even before the end of the summer break given completing a Bottas deal would likely be straightforward. But with Binotto not yet in position, it’s possible the wait might continue.
DOOHAN SET FOR ALPINE
Alpine junior Jack Doohan has been making a good impression at Alpine in his test outings, as well as doing diligent work behind the scenes with his simulator activities.
He was shuffling his way to the front of the Alpine queue before Sainz emerged as a contender, and is widely expected to get the drive now the Spaniard has gone elsewhere.
Flavio Briatore, who is effectively in charge of the team in his executive advisor role, has also privately made positive noises about Doohan’s candidacy.
There are other contenders, such as Alpine World Endurance Championship driver Mick Schumacher and Bottas, but Doohan is already a part of the F1 team and is well-placed to get his big break after a year on the sidelines.
KIMI TO MERCEDES…UNLESS MAX MOVES
Sainz was in consideration at Mercedes, but there was only ever going to be a chance if Kimi Antonelli was not considered ready for promotion.
The 17-year-old’s impressive performances in testing old F1 machinery, as well as improving F2 form, mean he’s now as good as nailed on for the seat.
Unless, that is, Toto Wolff’s pursuit of Max Verstappen somehow bears fruit for 2025. Red Bull’s struggles and Verstappen’s frustration at certain, unnamed people at the team who don’t share his concerns about the development direction and the need to take nothing for granted mean that flicker of hope is still there for Mercedes.
But realistically, everything points to a George Russell/Antonelli line-up for Mercedes next year.
WILL THEY WAIT FOR THE WILDCARD?
This F1 driver market has been probably the most unpredictable in history and there’s still the chance for one more curveball.
Red Bull is committed to Sergio Perez for now, but it’s understood there is still potential for a change after the run of four races following grands prix at Zandvoort, Monza, Baku and Singapore should Red Bull’s constructors’ championship position become even more perilous.
That means there is still the slight possibility he could be dropped by Red Bull and therefore a factor in the 2025 driver market.
However, given his situation has stabilised that’s likely to come too late for him to become a contender for the vacancies at teams like Sauber and Alpine, who would likely consider a driver of his skill and experience. Provided, of course, Perez is willing to continue in F1 by dropping down the grid.
ALL OVER FOR SARGEANT
Sainz’s Williams deal means Logan Sargeant, long on his way out, will definitely not be racing in F1 next year. The one positive for the 23-year-old is the Williams announcement referred to the fact “he will continue to fight hard for us in the races ahead”, effectively confirming that he won’t be replaced over the August break.
Sargeant has had a tough time and there’s some justification in him pointing to the difficulty of judging his performances given there have often been specification differences between him and Albon.
Since regaining parity, he has made some good progress, although his Spa struggles confirmed that despite having a good turn of underlying speed he simply hasn’t delivered often enough to secure a place on the 2025 grid.
He’s therefore set to join Magnussen and Zhou on the F1 sidelines for next year.
