Despite three days and 3896 laps of running in Bahrain, Formula 1 pre-season testing only produces incomplete and unreliable data for evaluating relative performance. That’s why teams and drivers will default to cliches about qualifying in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix being the first time they will get a good read.
And yet, they also invest plenty of effort in trying to get a read on the competitive order. While the information is imperfect, it is possible to work out roughly how everyone stands and generate a ranking order. That’s a challenge we at The Race always relish.
We draw on a broad range of information to generate this ranking, including analysis both of short and long-run pace, trackside observations, numerous paddock conversations with drivers and team personnel, and much more.
Educated guesswork is part of the methodology, which is unavoidable given confounding factors of runplans, fuel loads, engine modes and track conditions. The result is a tentative model of the performance spread and traits of the cars judged solely by what happened in Bahrain, rather than a prediction of what we expected for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix. It’s also based on all-round performance, rather than being weighted towards qualifying or race pace.
Here's our rundown of the best and worst of the 2025 cars so far, based on everything our F1 team saw in Bahrain.
10 Sauber
Being the slowest based on headline laptimes is one thing, but doing so in harness with unspectacular long-run pace in a car that is visibly the trickiest to drive adds up to a bleak picture for what was already last year’s worst team.
Even by the standards of the current breed of F1 cars, the Sauber ran too stiff, suggesting a narrow set-up window not giving the drivers the compliance that they like.
Nico Hulkenberg was evasive when The Race’s Edd Straw quizzed him about this after the final day of running - in itself revealing - but also admitted “the baseline was not amazing” and that “we definitely have certain struggles”.
If qualifying were to be held in Bahrain today, you would expect the Saubers to be knocked out in Q1. There’s a lot of work to be done, although the car is at least not so far off the back to be in Williams 2019 territory and there’s therefore every chance gains can be made
9 Aston Martin
The good news is that, as team principal Andy Cowell says, “initial feedback suggests we have made progress with the driveability of the car”.
The downside is he also admits the team has “discovered areas that could be better” along with the suspicion that improvements in the stability to make the car more benign haven’t gone far enough.
The fact Aston Martin had a disrupted test, completing only 306 laps – more only than Red Bull – perhaps shrouded the car’s potential. But on top of the inconclusive, but unspectacular, laptimes there were signs trackside of instability at corner entry, meaning the drivers often had to hesitate briefly after the initial turn in to ensure the rear end didn’t give up on them. That’s a time and confidence-sapping trait.
Fernando Alonso admits he expects the form to look similar to the end of last season, when Aston Martin had long since slid back from the front of the midfield, suggesting the squad is set for a tough start.
8 Haas
Just as in 2024 pre-season testing, Haas focused on running heavy and race-stint preparation. That meant that once again, it was difficult to judge its place in the pecking order.
It was only the ninth-quickest car on single-lap pace, but it again looks set to be a competitive midfield proposition. As team principal Ayao Komatsu says: “we are in the ballpark, I don’t know exactly where”.
Aside from the problem with the bodywork, with Ollie Bearman losing a piece of his engine cover the final day (team-mate Esteban Ocon had a similar problem at the car’s Silverstone shakedown), it was a smooth test. And that trouble was put down to being too aggressive, with a straightforward fix presumably involving beefing up the fasteners.
All signs are that the Haas is a good, solid midfield machine - albeit one that occasionally exhibited signs of low-speed understeer. However, there’s nothing to say it can quite hit the heights of last year, when it was often the fifth-fastest car in the closing stages of the season. Or at least, not yet.
7 Racing Bulls
Racing Bulls is best characterised as being in the midfield of the midfield, but maybe only a few tenths of a second off the front of the group after a smooth test. That’s a solid foundation to start from.
The team had to chip away at an understeer problem over the course of the Bahrain test, and there were still signs of a slight front limitation on the final day - but nothing too serious. In the hands of Yuki Tsunoda, in particular, the car looks like a good package with significant data accumulated and mileage logged.
6 Alpine
What a difference a year makes for Alpine. After last year’s disastrous Bahrain test, it’s right in the thick of the fight at the front of the midfield this year and both Pierre Gasly and Jack Doohan are happy with the way the car is behaving.
We might even be harsh on Alpine by ranking it only sixth, given it looks to be nip and tuck with Williams for the head of the midfield. Generally, the Alpine ran a little heavier on fuel load than the Williams in Bahrain, with the two cars looking to have similar pace.
Alpine has built on its strong finish to 2024 and is capable of fighting for fifth in the championship with what looks to be a confidence-inducing car.
5 Williams
Williams set the fastest laptime of the test, on the second day of running. While that led to some tipping it to join the lead group, that seems a step too far - as Carlos Sainz admitted when he said “I don’t think we’ve done the necessary step to be fighting with the top teams this year”.
Of course, that was never the realistic target. What Williams has done is made a big step from last year and emerged as a potential midfield leader, albeit with Alpine a close rival for that honour. That Williams admitted to potentially running higher engine modes than its direct rival - and the fact that it was often lighter than Alpine - muddies the waters when it comes to picking a midfield leader.
The car looked impressive on track throughout the test, albeit with occasional moments catching the drivers out. And on race runs, the car seems quick and relatively consistent.
4 Red Bull
The Red Bull RB21 is unquestionably fast enough to be in the leading group of four, but it appears to have inherited at least some of its predecessor’s problems.
Max Verstappen made some positive noises early in the test, and his final verdict was that it wasn’t bad, but there’s a bit of work to do - hardly a glowing review. His body language didn’t inspire confidence and he even had an uncharacteristic spin on the final afternoon.
Watching from trackside, there were signs of the balance problems with the car not looking easy to get turned in and rotated through the corner consistently when pushing. Even when quick, the car looked tricky.
Technical director Pierre Wache confirmed those impressions, saying “I am not as happy as I could be because the car did not respond how we wanted at times, but it is going in the right direction, just maybe the magnitude of the direction was not as big as we expected and it’s something we need to work on”.
There was encouraging long-run pace on day one, but Red Bull didn’t do a full race simulation on the final day and devoted time to set-up work. It even ran several flo-vis paint experiments in the final two hours of the test in search of answers - not a good sign.
Red Bull clearly has some work to do between now and the Australian Grand Prix with a car that looks like it is quick when in the sweet spot, but might prove difficult to keep there.
However, if it can make a breakthrough, it’s the car in the front group with the most potential for a leap forward.
3 Ferrari
Ferrari flirted with looking very good in this test, and never seemed to be in terrible strife, but ended up tough to get a read on after a compromised final day.
At its best, the car is nimble and strong, almost inseparable from the Mercedes in both poise on-track and in laptime. But it occasionally exhibited some more prominent limitations – sometimes understeer, sometimes rear sliding, sometimes excessive tyre wear.
It seems the test was slightly disappointing given how well sorted McLaren looked and the step Mercedes has apparently made.
Ultimately, there are no major red flags for Ferrari – but it wasn’t a head-turning week either.
2 Mercedes
The Mercedes was unusually serene on track throughout the Bahrain test. It looked consistent, giving drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli real confidence.It also showed a good turn of pace, with the numbers placing it at a very similar level to Ferrari. Given the car looked so well balanced, despite a persistent front-brake-locking problem, that’s given it the marginal edge in our ranking. Russell described the test as “seamless”, reflecting the positive mood in the team.
The only real negatives are that McLaren is a clear step ahead, and the lingering doubt about whether the unusually cold conditions in Bahrain flattered the W16 given the recent trend for Mercedes to struggle in warmer temperatures.
We’re not saying Mercedes is definitively second best and predicting it to stay there, but this was the most encouraging pre-season test for it since the ground-effect car regulations were introduced in 2022.
1 McLaren
McLaren was only fifth fastest based on headline laptimes, but make no mistake - its race pace was mighty and clear of everyone. That means its status as pre-season favourite has been confirmed.
It was a successful test for McLaren, but not entirely perfect. Lando Norris, whose race pace was particularly impressive, admitted McLaren has “struggled a bit more with the rear than we would have liked”.
That was visible trackside, particularly in the high-speed sweeps of Turns 5 to 7. But it didn’t appear to be too problematic, with team principal Andrea Stella pointing out that a little rear instability is a useful trait for a track like Bahrain. The rising temperatures and increased wind on the final day exaggerated this trait.
The consensus throughout the paddock is that McLaren is on top, although not by as big a margin as Red Bull was pre-season in 2023 and 2024. So even if McLaren is as strong as it looked in testing, it’s still likely to have a real fight on its hands once the racing starts.
