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Daniel Ricciardo’s Formula 1 career is hanging by a thread as he admitted a disappointing Singapore Grand Prix might have been his last race.
Ricciardo was already looking increasingly likely to lose his RB seat to Liam Lawson for 2025 and started the Singapore event admitting that he would find out in the four-week gap between this race and the next one in Austin if he had a drive next year.
But speculation has mounted this weekend that he could even be dropped before the end of 2024, and Ricciardo’s demeanour has seemed increasingly dispirited as things went badly for him on-track as well.
Ricciardo cut a visibly emotional figure after a difficult race that he spent at the back and ended with a consolation run for fastest lap that also helped the senior Red Bull team take a point off championship rival Lando Norris.
He said the physically demanding nature of the race contributed to him feeling “a flood of emotions and feelings” but he also conceded “I’m aware it could be it”.
“The cockpit is something that…I got very used to for many years,” Ricciardo said.
“I just wanted to savour the moment.”
Beyond the words themselves were long pauses, slight breaks in his voice and a hint of tears in his eyes that all revealed how vulnerable Ricciardo felt by Sunday evening.
Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko is very keen on getting Lawson in the car as early as possible, but there has not been a unified public position on whether Red Bull is definitely dropping Ricciardo now.
However, senior figures have opted not to take multiple opportunities to shut down the speculation this weekend. Ricciardo’s body language and his words post-race indicated that something had changed during the weekend to leave him thinking like not driving again this season was not just possible but likely.
Asked if he would be driving in the next race, Ricciardo said: "Obviously there is a realistic chance that it’s not going to happen.
"It’s been a very race by race situation with Red Bull for all of us in a way. At times it feels it’s going one way and then it goes another.
"There was a lot of emphasis on this weekend and I would’ve loved a better weekend."
Whether that stance is because of a message direct from Red Bull, though, or was just Ricciardo picking up on all the speculation and the fact nobody at Red Bull or RB made much effort to dampen the speculation in Singapore, is unclear.
But Ricciardo’s position is more precarious than ever. He said he is "prepared" for this being his final race, and even alluded to appreciating being awarded ‘Driver of the Day’ as a potential farewell gesture or recognition of his career.
“Typically the ‘Driver of the Day’ thing is maybe not something us drivers look too much into but today I can say it’s something I’m appreciative of," he said.
“That one today means a little something.”
Ricciardo was brought in as a third Red Bull driver for 2023 after two increasingly tough years at McLaren ended with him being paid to sit on the sidelines, to be a back-up should Sergio Perez continue to struggle.
But even though Perez has been close to being dropped, Ricciardo has not made a convincing enough case to the Red Bull hierarchy that he was worth promoting.
With that in mind, dropping Ricciardo for Lawson for the remainder of the season appears to be less about Ricciardo’s own performances and helping the RB team – which is usually what motivates these types of in-season changes.
The unusual gap in the schedule is a good time to make the change as Lawson can have a whole month to prepare before he gets in the car on a race weekend, and if he will drive next year anyway, then Red Bull might just think it is worth expediting it.
However, there is a bigger Red Bull Racing picture to consider, as Red Bull also sees this as a way to evaluate Lawson for more than an RB seat in 2025 - like replacing Perez at Red Bull Racing.
That would explain why Red Bull has talked about needing to get answers about how good Lawson is, when he has already proven himself worthy of an RB drive with his stand-in performances last year.
If Lawson replaces Ricciardo for the remainder of 2024 and does so well that, combined with Perez still underachieving, he gets promoted to Red Bull Racing in 2025, that could then offer Ricciardo a reprieve.
He will likely be retained as a Red Bull-contracted driver for the rest of 2024 and Red Bull has an option on him for next year as well. So it could put him back in the second team alongside Tsunoda for 2025 if needed.
However, even if that long-shot scenario arises, Ricciardo may not want to take the chance anyway given his own comments about what purpose this second F1 career serves without a Red Bull Racing future.
"I tried to acknowledge a few things as well with myself [this weekend], acknowledge also why I came back in," he said.
"Sometimes you see the big picture and I always said I don’t want to be a guy who’s just here on the grid and fighting [for points] every now and then, which has kind of been how this year’s gone.
"But this year the purpose was to try to do good enough to try to get back into Red Bull and fight for wins again, to see if I’ve still got it. Obviously I came up short with that. So then it’s like ‘what else am I fighting for here? What else is going to give me fulfilment?’
"Because I’ve been a young driver as well and at some point you don’t just want to take up space. Obviously you have to be selfish, but if I’m not able to go and fight at the front with Red Bull then you have to ask yourself ‘what am I staying on the grid for?’
"That’s something I’ve also come to peace with."
The 2024 Singapore GP isn't actually the first time Ricciardo's treated an F1 race like this last either.
"I tried to obviously enjoy it, a little bit like the end of ‘22 at McLaren, I thought maybe that was my last race so I tried to enjoy that," he added.
"I think I’m in a much happier place now in the sport than I was then so if this is it, let’s say I have a little bit more peace and I’m proud of the career.
"Obviously I tried to become world champion, I tried to become the best at something in the world.
"It is a tall task that we ask of ourselves and obviously some achieve it, some don’t. In the end, if I came up a little short, I can’t be too hard on myself and I’m happy with the effort I put in and there’s no sadness or feeling of regret or what could’ve been.
"I put my best foot forward."
