Pre-season testing provided some early clues as to how Formula 1 2025 might play out, but the weirdly cool conditions in Bahrain, coupled with the usual caveats over the engine power modes and fuel loads being used by each team, mean there are still plenty of unanswered questions heading into this weekend's season-opening Australian Grand Prix.
Even one race on Melbourne's unusual street circuit won’t give us the full picture, but we're about to learn a lot more than we know right now.
Here are eight of the key outstanding questions after pre-season testing that the first race should begin to answer.
Is Hamilton back to his best at Ferrari?
Lewis Hamilton's title challenger credentials are obviously massively influenced by the quality of Ferrari's new car.
Testing was ambiguous, even by usual pre-season standards, because there were times the SF-25 looked nice and compliant and times when it looked a handful. Hamilton also lost mileage on the final day due to technical trouble.
There was definitely a feeling that it wasn't an ideal test, in terms of maximising mileage but also fully understanding the car.
Every team has some work to do heading into the new season, but the Ferrari doesn't look as sorted as the McLaren or even the Mercedes.
Regardless of how fast Ferrari is, there's another question mark over Hamilton himself.
His one-lap performance was poor in 2024 and he even doubted at times whether he was still fast enough to compete at the top of F1.
What was unclear is how much of that was down to Mercedes' cars, to Hamilton's time there just fizzling out, and to him finally feeling the reality of getting older.
The early signs are encouraging, insofar as the worst of the problems seen at Mercedes in the ground-effect era weren't prominent this pre-season: Hamilton seemed to be attacking the braking zones and trusting the car more.
But there is no way to be certain until the fuel comes out of every car, soft tyres go on, and everyone's searching for the final hundredths of a second that make a difference over a qualifying lap.
That's when any remaining limitations the Ferrari, or Hamilton, has will be exposed. - Scott Mitchell-Malm
Is Antonelli really worth the hype?
We're going to see many extraordinary moments from Hamilton's replacement at Mercedes, Kimi Antonelli. How well he can string them all together in his rookie season is the only question mark. For although he's been well-prepared in terms of total F1 test mileage, don't forget this will be just his fourth season of car racing.
In terms of experience as a rookie F1 driver, he's somewhere in between 2015 Max Verstappen (who had just one season in Formula 3 before stepping up to F1) and 2007 Lewis Hamilton (who'd had five seasons in Formula Renault, F3 and GP2).
In terms of the likely competitiveness of Antonelli's car, he's again probably going to be somewhere in between where Verstappen was with Toro Rosso (regular points scorer) and where Hamilton was with McLaren (title challenger).
When assessing Antonelli's performances, it's the peaks we're going to be looking for, not the averages. There will be many data gaps - mainly to do with tyres - that will only be filled by experience. But if the Mercedes is competitive, it's perfectly feasible that Antonelli will be winning races.
Antonelli's level of raw ability - his natural feel and balance - is super-rare and is often seen to most devastating effect through fast corners. There have been wet days in his career thus far where he's been whole seconds faster than his rivals.
There is always a natural cynicism - both inside the sport and from fans - when someone this good comes along. That's just perception lagging behind reality. In hindsight, it's often the lack of belief in the hype which is revealed as ill-judged.
Like those who doubted 17-year-old Verstappen, or who speculated that Kimi Raikkonen, with just a season of Formula Renault under his belt, would be a liability on the 2001 F1 grid, instead of a sensational performer, snapped up within a few months for gazillions by a top team.
Whether you're a cynic or fan, Antonelli won't care; he's going to blow you away regardless. - Mark Hughes
Mark's thoughts on Antonelli first appeared in an article in The Race Members' Club on Patreon - join now for 90% off your first month and a huge number of extra exclusives plus early and ad-free access to more of our content
Can Red Bull really work without Newey?
To suggest that Adrian Newey's departure from Red Bull will have no impact would be incredibly naïve - because teams do not pay millions of pounds in salaries to staff who do not contribute significantly.
But it would probably be a step too far to suggest that his exit is going to leave Red Bull on its knees, because Red Bull has a high-quality technical leadership team in place that has evolved in recent years to take on ever-more responsibility.
In technical director Pierre Wache, it has a leader who's helped steer the ship through much of Red Bull's recent success. Wache and his team have what it takes to get Red Bull to the front, but without Newey it may just be a case of the direction of travel not being as swift as it was in the past.
Newey's more recent usefulness to Red Bull was in being focused on bigger-picture thinking, and having the freedom to prioritise solving major issues by stepping back from the day-to-day.
Without him, that means the focus of other staff will need to be pulled off the here and now - so it could be that if the RB21 has some early problems, and with the looming 2026 car rules coming fast, Red Bull gets stretched thinner.
This could mean it needs to pick where its priorities lie, or risk getting so caught up in the present that the future perhaps gets more neglected than if Newey was there and quietly working away on it.
But if the RB21 has made the genuine progress Red Bull thinks it has, potential that's just waiting to be properly unlocked, then even without Newey it should have what it takes to chip away at the 2025 championship and put McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes under serious threat. - Jon Noble
Has Williams really improved that much?
Carlos Sainz set the fastest overall laptime of testing. While that comes with all the usual caveats about fuel levels and engine modes, the fact Williams made the biggest improvement in pace from qualifying in Bahrain last year to testing, a laptime gain of almost nine tenths, is genuinely encouraging.
Its race pace was decent too, although exactly how good depends on where you judge its fuel level. Here at The Race, we put Williams fifth and therefore at the head of the midfield, but it was almost impossible to separate Williams and Alpine.
There's no doubt that Williams was often running lighter than Alpine, both teams admit to that, but the question of how much is decisive given just 10kg difference equates to just over three tenths of a second.
Whatever happens, that means Williams is well-placed at least to start the season in a far stronger position than last year's ninth place in the constructors' championship - with a car that's a good evolution from 2024. And while Sainz downplayed suggestions it could threaten the top four, Williams is likely to be in the mix to lead the midfield pack.
However, there's also always the risk that Haas or Racing Bulls might prove to be quicker than Bahrain testing suggested. - Edd Straw
What role will flexible aerodynamics play?
Policing flexi wings in F1 is a problem that's unlikely to ever go away, because the laws of physics mean there will always be advantages to be gained from teams messing about with aero elasticity.
This has become especially the case with the current generation of ground effect cars, because of their inherent characteristics.
One of those characteristics is low-speed understeer, caused by the stiffness of the mechanical platform needed to keep the aerodynamics consistent and the front wing angle needing to be reduced to stop the car misbehaving at higher speeds.
The other is high-speed oversteer - caused by the front wing generating its own ground effect at low ride heights and becoming overpowered in the fast corners.
Developing a flexible front wing, which allows teams to run higher angles at low speed and then trust in the elasticity to reduce the power of the wing at high speed, has become almost a must-have. Teams including McLaren, Mercedes and Alpine have transformed their fortunes by investing heavily in this technology.
The FIA had hoped tougher rules on the rear wing, and a tightening up of the tests on the front wing, would be enough to bring things under control and stop teams playing around too much in this area heading into 2025.
But the opposite seems to be true because, with the F1 grid appearing to be so competitive, teams seem to have quickly realised that if they can help better balance their cars with a bendy front wing, or find a bit more straightline speed through the mini-DRS effect at the rear, this could make the difference between success and failure.
It took only the first days of Bahrain pre-season testing for chatter to appear about some teams pushing the limits too much on their rear wings, and with extra FIA checks on this coming into play in Melbourne this will inevitably become a big talking point there.
Further down the road is the requirement for stiffer front wings from round nine - the Spanish GP on June 1 - a move that insiders suggest could tilt the competitive order in favour of Red Bull in particular, as that team was previously a class above its rivals before flexi wings became more common in 2024.
It's not impossible that what seems a relatively minor change to the front wing load tests could have a major impact on how things shake out at the front of the grid. And, if things really are tight between three or four teams, that may dictate the destiny of the 2025 world championship. - JN
How much better is the Mercedes really?
Mercedes enjoyed what George Russell dubbed a "seamless" pre-season test, with trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin saying the running in Bahrain confirmed that the team had made good steps in tackling the weaknesses of the 2024 car.
On track, the car looked consistent and well-balanced and looked only second-best to McLaren in terms of responsiveness. It was quick as well, probably marginally faster than Ferrari on long-run pace, albeit well off that of McLaren. With question marks over Red Bull, that led us to rank Mercedes second for its Bahrain testing performance.
The question is whether what we saw in Bahrain is real. Firstly, it was just one circuit and the wildly erratic form of Mercedes in the ground-effect era means that strong performance at only one venue can never be entirely convincing.
Secondly, the unusually cool conditions meant that Mercedes didn't face its main weakness from 2024: high temperatures.
At its best, we can expect the Mercedes W16 to challenge for race wins. What testing hasn't proved is whether it can be consistent or if it will fluctuate between being quickest and emphatically at the back of the leading group of four teams from track to track.
If it's the former, then there's no doubt that Russell is ready to challenge for the championship, with red-hot rookie Antonelli also set to make a big impression.
But to do that, Mercedes has more to prove. So far, the verdict is quick but inconclusive. - ES
Will Lawson be an upgrade on Perez?
Sergio Perez paid the price for Red Bull's car development problems in 2024, as his woeful form cost the team the constructors' championship and him the seat he was supposed to occupy through at least 2025 and 2026.
In his place comes Liam Lawson, enthusiastically talked about within Red Bull as a welcome breath of fresh air - but is he quick enough?
With Perez, Red Bull knew where the ceiling was: dependable, and even occasionally beating Max Verstappen on merit. But the basement was too low. Every Perez season featured an extended run of underwhelming form - and in 2024, that streak never ended. Hence Lawson being drafted in for 2025.
His potential is unknown. It'll be a journey of discovery for him, considering he's made only 11 starts in F1 so far, a journey of discovery for his Red Bull team, and for all of us watching too.
Verstappen is already talking about not fighting for victory in the season opener, and Red Bull is definitely pushing a narrative that it will start 2025 slightly on the back foot - but with the hope that the car is an improvement enough that, once optimised, it will be fighting for wins more consistently than it was in the second half of last year.
Exactly where Lawson fits into that is an unknown, and a major factor in 2025, with a vast range of outcomes possible. He could support a Red Bull title bid, or undermine it; be Verstappen's rear gunner, or be anonymous; and just maybe kick off a long Red Bull career - or earn a swift dismissal. - SMM
Has Piastri stepped up to Norris level?
At times last year, some questioned whether Oscar Piastri might unseat Lando Norris as McLaren's top dog. Despite two wins, and some strong weekends, that threat faded with Norris ultimately coming out comfortably on top of the battle between the pair.
Having now committed his future to the team beyond 2026, Piastri has set a clear objective entering his third season in F1, saying at the launch of the McLaren MCL39 that he’s aiming for the title.
Judging by pre-season testing, he will have the car to do just that. But he will have to defeat Norris to do so.
First and foremost, Piastri needs to step up his game in qualifying. In 2024, where a fair pace comparison can be made, he was on average 0.163% off Norris's pace. That equates to 0.144s around a typical circuit.
There were also several weekends where Piastri struggled for pace all the way through, while matching Norris's race pace sometimes proved a challenge.
Piastri says that one key way he can improve is by being more resilient and adaptable as a given race weekend evolves. That means not only recovering well if things start badly, but also recognising what needs to change in terms of set-up or driving technique more quickly.
He argues it's not about improving qualifying specifically, but that making gains in this area will pay off all-round. It's therefore more about stringing everything together and making use of his growing experience.
If he can produce his best consistently, the signs point to him becoming a match for Norris. And if he can do that, Piastri's ice-cool ruthlessness on-track could even give him the edge. - ES
