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Formula 1 is probably shaping up for a three-way fight at the front of the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix, as Mercedes narrowly set the pace over a single lap on Friday but McLaren showed an edge over the long runs - with Max Verstappen’s Red Bull just about hanging in there but having work to do to close the gap.
Verstappen’s most impressive run came right at the start of the session. He took just one flying lap to go second fastest on the medium tyre, while Lewis Hamilton worked down to the quickest time on that tyre over a sequence of three flying laps.
INITIAL SINGLE-LAP RUNNING
1. Hamilton 1m11.833s
2. Verstappen 1m12.131s
3. Russell 1m12.329s
4. Alonso 1m12.384s
5. Norris 1m12.453s
6. Stroll 1m12.492s
7. Albon 1m12.549s (H)
8. Tsunoda 1m12.597s (H)
9. Leclerc 1m12.670s
10. Piastri 1m12.805s
11. Gasly 1m12.952s (H)
12. Perez 1m13.108s
13. Sainz 1m13.108s
14. Hulkenberg 1m13.296s
15. Ocon 1m13.313s
16. Magnussen 1m13.347s (H)
17. Sargeant 1m13.370s
18. Ricciardo 1m13.385s
19. Zhou 1m13.622s
20. Bottas 1m13.648s
In the qualifying simulations, the top five runners all did just one flying lap at roughly similar times, so it would appear at this stage (allowing for variances in fuel levels and engine modes) Mercedes has a small edge.
Ferrari looks well out of the picture at this stage, perhaps hurt by the windy conditions. Charles Leclerc was only ninth quickest behind an Aston Martin, an RB and a Haas, which doesn’t look representative of what you’d normally expect from that car.
QUALIFYING SIMULATIONS
1. Russell 1m10.702s
2. Piastri 1m10.763s
3. Hamilton 1m10.813s
4. Norris 1m10.961s
5. Verstappen 1m10.986s
6. Alonso 1m11.357s
7. Tsunoda 1m11.374s
8. Magnussen 1m11.430s
9. Leclerc 1m11.443s
10. Albon 1m11.550s
11. Stroll 1m11.576s
12. Perez 1m11.581s
13. Ricciardo 1m11.630s
14. Gasly 1m11.644s
15. Sargeant 1m11.818s
16. Zhou 1m11.934s
17. Ocon 1m12.061s
18. Bottas 1m12.206s
That the upgraded McLaren looked at ease on the track, especially in Norris's hands, was backed up emphatically by the longer runs.
Verstappen and Norris both used the medium tyre on heavier fuel loads at the same time - and it was Norris with a clear edge, his run was both much quicker and more consistent than Verstappen’s.
Verstappen’s run was slower too than Hamilton’s, though Hamilton took the benefit of a cool-down lap after his first two fliers, then a brief pitstop midway through his run.
LEADING RUNNERS' LONG RUNS
Red Bull vs McLaren vs Mercedes on mediums
Norris 1m15.557s (10-lap average)
Hamilton 1m16.019s (8-lap average)
Verstappen 1m16.131s (7-lap average)
Norris and Verstappen then both switched to the soft at roughly the same time, and on that tyre the McLaren was again quicker - though the gap was narrowed from what seems like an unrepresentative near-six tenths per lap on the medium to less than two tenths on the soft.
Verstappen vs Norris on softs (low fuel)
Verstappen 1m15.445 (9-lap average)
Norris 1m15.260s (5-lap average)
McLaren and Mercedes went head-to-head on the soft tyre at the start of the longer runs, where George Russell was marginally quicker than Oscar Piastri - though Russell went much harder much earlier then appeared to suffer a drop-off that Piastri didn’t.
Russell vs Piastri on softs (high fuel)
Piastri 1m16.166s (10-lap average)
Russell 1m16.012s (11-lap average)
The Red Bull looked difficult to drive again, though the high winds make it more difficult for everyone in this regard.
Nevertheless, on balance you’d have to say the upgraded McLaren is probably looking like the favourite after day one at Zandvoort.
