Formula 1's annual driver market silly season is already in full swing for 2026 with some fascinating whispers bubbling around the paddock.
Could Max Verstappen really be pondering a sabbatical? Is Red Bull sniffing around George Russell to lure him away from Mercedes as a replacement? Could the two drivers even end up swapping teams?
While things do not seem to be quite as explosive as they were last year, as Lewis Hamilton's switch to Ferrari blew the grid apart and triggered a big shuffle, there is definitely potential for some surprises along the way.
Although most of the focus has been around Verstappen - who is keeping his mouth firmly shut amid all the recent speculation over what he could do - the situation with Mercedes driver Russell is just as intriguing as he too is a big player in how things shake out.
While his strong run of form makes it a no-brainer for Mercedes to keep Russell, his ongoing availability right now means it is not impossible somebody else makes a bid to poach him - with it understood that he is already being sounded out about 2026 possibilities.
A summer crunch point?
Despite Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko suggesting that his team had "great concern" about losing Verstappen, the reality is the silly season is in a bit of a holding pattern right now.
What Verstappen thinks about his future, and whatever tempting offers others may be interested in giving him, are ultimately an irrelevance because, for the time being, he is not a free agent because he has a Red Bull contract until 2028.
However, it is widely known that Verstappen has an exit clause in his contract that could be activated later this year. And if it is triggered, then it could really get the ball rolling on a big shake-up for 2026.
High-level sources have suggested that the clause comes into play if Verstappen is outside of the top two in the drivers' championship by a certain point of the season, which is believed to be the summer break.
The timing of that is why any talk of a decision having already been made appears to be wide of the mark - and perhaps explains why there is an eagerness from Red Bull's perspective to ensure that troubled races like Bahrain are the exception rather than the rule.
A strong push until the summer break, especially if the Spanish Grand Prix flexi wing clampdown shakes things up at the front, could be enough to keep Verstappen in title contention and close enough to the lead of the standings that everything continues as it is into 2026.
But such a scenario cannot be guaranteed and, if Verstappen falls away from both McLaren drivers, or finds a Mercedes or Ferrari nudging ahead of him, then a drop in the standings could be enough for him or his management team to feel that it is time to do something different.
That would then leave the reigning champion with some clear options.
Mercedes would certainly be interested, while Aston Martin, potentially with backing from Saudi Arabian partners, could put a financial package together that makes a move there for the four-time F1 champion an interesting prospect.
But another scenario has even been suggested of Verstappen having a sabbatical - which will then allow him to see who is competitive and who is struggling in 2026 before he then commits to a return for the best seat available for 2027.
The Russell factor
What Verstappen does, and the timing of when that decision is made, is obviously not something that is happening in complete isolation, as there is a ripple effect elsewhere.
And perhaps the most intriguing consequence of what Verstappen does is what it means for Mercedes.
It remains the most logical choice to house Verstappen were he to leave Red Bull because it still has an open vacancy, as Russell's current contract runs out at the end of this year.
For all the starring performances from Russell over the opening phase of the 2025 F1 season, he and Mercedes have still not laid down a timetable for finalising a contract for next season. And time is ticking.
This has prompted the idea that Mercedes boss Toto Wolff wants to wait until Verstappen's future is crystal clear before he commits to his 2026 line-up - because he is known to be a fan of Red Bull's lead driver.
On one level, delaying until the summer is a great tactic, because it gives Wolff and Mercedes some breathing space to make sure that the team is not locked into something else if there is a rare opportunity to grab Verstappen.
But equally there is a risk factor involved in waiting too long to get Russell under lock and key because there is the outside prospect that someone else could come knocking for him.
And one intriguing scenario could even be that Red Bull tries to get ahead of any risk of losing Verstappen by making an early bid for Russell to lure him away from Mercedes.
Sources suggest that Russell and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner have had some informal chats over recent weeks, so are aware of each other's situations even if things have not advanced to full-on talks about a race deal.
A Red Bull move to go for Russell if it knows it is going to lose its star driver could be especially intriguing if Verstappen then does not go for Mercedes - but instead chooses Aston Martin or a year on the sidelines.
That would leave Mercedes in a scramble to find a team-mate for Kimi Antonelli because there are not many other front-line drivers out of their contracts at the end of this year.
The best short-term solution in that case could even be a return to Valtteri Bottas, who is having his own year on the sidelines as he looks to secure an F1 comeback for 2026.
For now, everything in the driver market is theoretical - as the trigger point for any shake-up will be how Verstappen's performance clause looks in a couple of months' time.
But it will be fascinating to see if Mercedes decides to go early and get a Russell deal sorted to avoid being left on the sidelines if events beyond its control play out elsewhere, or if it chooses to bide its time and risks waiting.
Verstappen's 2026 options
Mercedes is Verstappen's most obvious, competitive alternative for 2026 - and there is a potential vacancy with Russell out of contract.
Wolff says progress is being made towards a Russell renewal but there will remain some doubt over how committed Wolff is to that if it remains unresolved at the same time Verstappen's exit clause is still yet to kick in (if it ever does).
The next alternative is Aston Martin, a team with big plus points as a project but no obvious evidence it can make good on its potential in the short term. Reuniting with Adrian Newey and Honda would appeal, probably more than any kind of lucrative deal Aston Martin - which has some Saudi Arabian money attached to it - may offer.
Of course, Verstappen could just stay with Red Bull. But what it offers as a more certain competitive prospect than Aston Martin in the short term may be countered by the question mark over its own engine, plus the erosion of the team's foundations over the last couple of years.
Should none of these appeal, or play out as Verstappen or his team envisage, he could always take a sabbatical and re-evaluate for 2027 based on who actually starts the new ruleset strongest.
In the meantime, he could fulfil his desire to race in sportscars and take on the Le Mans 24 Hours while still at his peak.
Russell's 2026 options
Russell seems to have less control over his future even though he ostensibly has a clearer path. His preference is to remain with Mercedes, which is the best option available to him. As a high-performing incumbent driver who Mercedes has invested in for a long time, it is a logical move.
But if Wolff is insistent on signing Verstappen, Russell could end up on the sidelines. Red Bull would have a vacancy in a straight swap, although it is interesting to consider if Red Bull would regard Russell as its number one target. What if, for example, Red Bull made a fresh play for Lando Norris? That kind of reshuffle would unexpectedly open up a seat at McLaren.
More likely, though, is that Russell would need to seek refuge in the midfield. Aston Martin doesn't seem a likely destination - but could Wolff help a soft landing at a Mercedes-powered team, with Russell reuniting with his old Formula 3 boss Oliver Oakes at Alpine?
