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The Sauber team's quest to fill its final remaining Formula 1 seat for 2025 has entered its final stretch, with incumbent Valtteri Bottas confident of his chances but seemingly still facing stern competition.
Ten-time grand prix winner Bottas' time at Sauber looked set to end after three years but Audi - which will complete its takeover of the team early next year - striking out in its pursuit of Carlos Sainz and a change in team leadership offered Bottas a reprieve.
However, Sauber is yet to formally commit to him as Nico Hulkenberg's team-mate for next year - and talk has intensified of a favoured alternative emerging.
Formula 2 frontrunner Gabriel Bortoleto, already confirmed by new Audi F1 boss Mattia Binotto as being a name of interest, is now the most credible threat to Bottas' position.
Bortoleto is in his first season as a McLaren F1 junior and carried out his first F1 test with the team's 2022 machine last week at the Red Bull Ring under the Testing Previous Cars regulation - but, despite performing well above expectations in F2 this year, has no real chance of unseating either half of McLaren's elite F1 line-up of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri any time soon.
Bottas' confidence
Bottas, who turned 35 last month, is bidding to secure his 13th campaign in grand prix racing (but is also known to be very keen on a multi-year deal).
Asked by The Race about whether his past assessment of being "99%" certain of staying on the grid still held up, he said "yes" - and he indicated he had ceased talks with entities from outside F1.
Asked whether that could be taken as a good sign, he said: "Yes. For me it’s pretty clear what I want and hopefully we’ll get there soon."
In his first media appearance in his Audi role, Binotto confirmed at Monza that he was deliberating whether to take the route of experience or youth.
Bottas acknowledged his status as the number one 'experience' choice and said "it's pretty straightforward" - his other comments indicating that he expects Sauber/Audi to go with a known quantity after all.
The other way
However, there is no indication from Bottas or his camp that the matter is already definitively settled.
And while Sauber, which is yet to score a point in 2024, is not in the best place to be 'experimenting' with its line-up, there could be a certain logic to rolling the dice on a younger alternative - a driver who would presumably come much cheaper, wouldn't have the same contract length demands, and offers the prospect of either a high-upside payoff down the line or, again, contract flexibility.
Long-time Sauber junior Theo Pourchaire, who has already driven practice sessions for the teams, was also acknowledged by Binotto as an option, but Sauber has long been known to be looking around outside of its driver pool.
It was linked with Liam Lawson - now seemingly headed for a Red Bull-owned seat of some capacity - and has recently been talking to Bortoleto.
The Brazilian has had a curious open-wheel career so far, the first three years of which - one in Formula 4, two in Formula Regional - painted a picture of a solid prospect but hardly a superstar.
But, on a career trajectory mimicking that of McLaren's breakout star Piastri (albeit without really hitting those kinds of heights yet), Bortoleto came out of the blue to win the Formula 3 title on his first attempt with two races to spare - and is now having a similar impact in F2.
The Invicta team he is racing for has pretty clearly done a better job than most adapting to the new F2 car, but Bortoleto is now just 10.5 points off the championship lead with six races to go - aided by a fortuitous win last time out at Monza but also hardly flattered by his position in the standings.
Alonso's endorsement
Bortoleto has one big admirer on the F1 grid already in two-time champion Fernando Alonso, having raced in the colours of Alonso's FA Racing in Formula Regional and then joined the Alonso-founded A14 Management stable.
Asked about Bortoleto by The Race in light of his links to a 2025 F1 seat, Alonso was effusive in his praise: "He is an incredible talent, and a very humble person as well. He is a hard worker, apart from his talent.
"And I think that's why in Formula 3 and Formula 2 he's had this much progress. I think he's also someone who takes things very seriously, as well, which at that age is never a guarantee."
Alonso also then claimed that Bortoleto's rookie run in F2 was made more impressive by the fact that, unlike many of his peers, he was a 'true' rookie, "without the testing [mileage] of many other rookies".
"He's probably the only rookie-rookie in the championship," said Alonso. "This has been an amazing achievement so far.
"And let's see what the future brings. But, you know, it's a matter of time before he gets to F1."
The others
Even if Sauber's shortlist has indeed narrowed down to just two drivers, such has been the nature of its search that it can't be taken for granted one of those drivers will definitely partner Hulkenberg.
It has, for example, also been rumoured that Sauber had looked at Bortoleto's then-fellow F2 driver Franco Colapinto - an interest that could perhaps be revived if Colapinto (pictured above) continues to impress in his part-time Williams drive until the end of the F1 season, given Williams can't offer him a seat for next year.
Pourchaire remains in the mix and could yet appeal as the simplest solution. Even if Bortoleto is favoured over him, there is the question of what it would take for McLaren to release Bortoleto to go drive for Sauber.
Concessions would have to be made in the form of either a clause that allows McLaren to recall Bortoleto - which would be, understandably, undesirable for Sauber/Audi, as it would imply Bortoleto has performed well - or financial compensation. No such concerns exist for Pourchaire's candidacy.
Sauber did also run the Ferrari-affiliated Robert Shwartzman in a practice session - without the implication of a race seat being in play, but also without the implication of that being 100% ruled out.
But if the preference for experience does prevail, Bottas seems to be a no-brainer. Audi's interest in the sidelined Mick Schumacher is yet to go beyond the realm of theoretical, there has been no indication of a move for someone like Kevin Magnussen, and Bottas' team-mate Zhou Guanyu has been on the losing side of what may well be F1's most one-sided team-mate battle this year - even though there is a belief in the F1 paddock that the gap there has been exaggerated by Sauber's current struggles.
