Formula 1's new 2026 rules have a "big chance" of becoming an engine formula early on, design legend Adrian Newey believes.
F1 will adopt new chassis and engine regulations next year in what was described by Newey's previous team Red Bull as the biggest rules change in 50 years.
Although the V6 turbo-hybrid engines will remain, they are being significantly overhauled to drop the complex MGU-H - the thermal energy recovery system - and significantly increase the electrical power output to somewhere approaching a 50-50 split with the internal combustion engine.
To accommodate the extra weight of the bigger batteries, plus the demands of harvesting sufficient energy to make the most of the electric motor even over a qualifying lap, significant changes are being made on the chassis side with new aerodynamic rules including how adjustable bodywork will be used without the conventional drag reduction system.
The overhaul, which will combine with the introduction of 100% 'sustainable' fuels, has been considered crucial by governing body the FIA to obtain manufacturer support - with Audi tempted into F1 for the first time, and Honda being convinced to go back on a decision to withdraw from F1 by partnering with Newey’s soon-to-be new employer Aston Martin.
Newey will start at Aston Martin in March this year and his focus will be on the 2026 car. When asked in a video interview with esteemed F1 journalist Michael Schmidt for German publication Auto Motor und Sport about whether the new rules could be like the start of the V6 turbo-hybrid era in 2014 when Mercedes had a significant advantage, Newey replied: "There has to be a big chance that it's an engine formula at the start.
"The reality is I can't remember another time in Formula 1 when both the chassis regulations and the regulations have changed simultaneously.
"And in this case the chassis regulations have been very much written to try to compensate, let's say, for the power unit regulations.
"So, it's an extra dimension. I think engine manufacturers will have learnt to an extent on the lack of preparation that the rivals to Mercedes did prior to that change [for 2014] but there has to be a chance that one manufacturer will come out well on top and it'll become a power unit-dominated regulation, at least to start with.
"And there's a chance, if it's on the combustion engine side of it that somebody comes up with a dominant combustion engine, that that will last through the length of the formula.
"Because the way the regulations are written, it's quite difficult for people who are behind to catch up.
"If it's on the electrical side, then there's much more ability to catch up if you're behind."
Finalising, publishing and now finessing the chassis regulations has taken a lot longer than the initial engine rules. The process is still ongoing.
The new rules led to concerns about the way the engines have to be run and the performance profile of the cars, which will be narrower and shorter than the current generation, with a significant reduction in weight, although the final numbers could change.
Major changes were needed to the car to reduce drag while maintaining performance in the corners. More have also been made to address concerns about the cars being too slow, which has increased the scope for downforce-generation and fine control of the aerodynamic characteristics to allow increased opportunity for teams to add load.
Newey claimed to have "little detailed knowledge of the new regulations…in terms of the chassis side of it and the aerodynamics and the vehicle dynamics" and will be confronted with a "rapid learning curve" focused on the new rules rather than Aston Martin's 2025 challenger when he takes up his role as managing technical partner.
"My concentration will clearly be on '26," Newey said.
"No doubt, Lawrence [Stroll, team chairman] will want me to be a little bit involved in the 2025 car.
"Whether I can really contribute anything or not, I've got no idea until I start."
