Fernando Alonso's early expectations for the 2025 Formula 1 season carry a thinly-veiled warning for Aston Martin's initial prospects.
Aston Martin was difficult to read in the Bahrain pre-season test beyond looking unspectacular in F1's very compressed midfield. It seemed to register on nobody's radar as an immediate threat to Alpine and Williams, widely considered to be the fledgling benchmarks for that part of the grid.
It reflects how F1's competitive picture has changed from 12 months ago. Alonso said 19 drivers already knew they wouldn't be world champion back then, but while "it's more open this year" at the front, the pecking order has also shifted further back as certain development trajectories through 2024 seem to have compounded over the winter.
"I guess...it's difficult to believe that things will change so much compared to Abu Dhabi," said Alonso. "Let's put it that way.
"So the first four races, I think that things will look similar to Abu Dhabi."
Aston Martin started the last two seasons well before a decline in each. But as 2024 began a little worse than 2023, overall it was quite a big fall. Aston Martin finished fifth in the championship last year but probably had the eighth or ninth best car by the end of it.
Hence Alonso's warning to not expect too much from this team at the beginning this time round.
Aston Martin has fairly humble short-term targets now: have a better, more confidence-inspiring car that responds well to development and re-establishes the team at the head of the midfield.
Its new AMR25 did initially look encouraging in testing, as though the desire to make the car more benign and predictable for the driver had been achieved. It gave a bit of a similar visual impression to 2023 - the test that signalled how great Aston Martin's start to that year would be - insofar as the car had no obvious vices from trackside, and looked very consistent.
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The problem is that every other car has stepped on a lot from 2023 so all of that is no longer as encouraging as it once was. Plus, the longer this week went on, the more a little rear instability on entry and corrective action from the drivers crept in.
Maybe the car is not as benign as hoped when it starts to get pushed more to the limit. But as Alonso pointed out, on his last morning he first ran a new set of tyres in the middle of the day, a time when the track is no longer "in the sweet spot".
He said he wasn't worried about the Aston Martin feeling difficult because of the tricky conditions in Bahrain proving a challenge for many cars. Nor was he concerned, he claimed, with a lap count lower than any team but Red Bull.
"The car itself is basically the '24 car, it's only the outside and all the aerodynamic parts that did change a lot, for performance," said Alonso.
"But let's say the engines, radiators, driveshafts, suspension - everything is the same as '24 so we don't need the normal race distances and so many laps like we will need next year, probably, when it's crucial to test the reliability."
This is another interesting ‘read between the lines' moment. It partially counters the Aston Martin rhetoric around its car reveal that this car has had quite a big overhaul.
Alonso merely points to modest expectations of his own. He felt "we have some positives in the car" as "the data and the correlation seems good and there is a step forward compared to last year's car".
But is this car not actually as big a step as hoped, or expected?
"We are relatively happy, knowing it's extremely tight in the midfield and we will have to do perfect weekends if we want to score points," said Alonso.
"But this maybe was not a surprise and we will try to get better throughout the season."
So, perhaps progress year-to-year but not enough given how far Aston Martin really fell back last season. Hence Alonso believes he will spend the opening run of races pulling out all the stops just to have a chance of scoring points.
He claims we should "not take that order for the rest of the year", though: "I think it will keep changing, [with] every upgrade package."
For that to work out in Alonso's favour, he needs a complete change in narrative - for Aston Martin to start the season a little behind, rather than in front, and then progress rather than slip back.
Whatever the team is willing to put into development this year without compromising its preparations for the massive rule change coming in 2026 will need to be more effective than last year's underwhelming upgrade success rate.
Failing to improve during the season will be a lot more painful this time if Aston Martin can't even build a points buffer against its midfield rivals early on.
