The momentum had been with Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes for three straight grands prix, and even through practice and the first part of qualifying for Formula 1’s 2021 title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
But then Max Verstappen and Red Bull emphatically halted that trend by taking pole at Yas Marina.
With the pair completely equal on points, it’s a straight fight for the title with no scoring permutations to consider other than whichever of them is first over the line in Abu Dhabi should be champion.
So who will it be? Here are our writers’ predictions:
SCOTT MITCHELL: Max Verstappen
He’s won a key advantage and the softs mean he should keep it off the line.
Hamilton will throw absolutely everything at him and hope that he has a strategic edge, given the odds are firmly against anyone starting behind at this track.
MARK HUGHES: Max Verstappen
It’s Verstappen logically. He should have track position, he should be able to build a gap before the harder-tyred Hamilton starts coming back at him.
The tyre degradation is really low, even on the softs. He just has to hope the pitstop window opens before Hamilton is within undercut range.
That’s the logic of the situation. But, as we know, we cannot assume anything about this year’s fight. It’s been extraordinary and there could yet be a sting in the tale.
GARY ANDERSON: Max Verstappen
I think Verstappen can pull it off and I’m not saying that to upset Hamilton supporters. Either driver would be a worthy world champion.
The way the cards have fallen has played into Verstappen’s hands. Flat-spotting his medium tyres in Q2 meant he was ‘forced’ (or was it planned?) into doing a lap on the softs so he will start the race from pole on them.
Hamilton is the only one in the top five that is on mediums so his start will be critical otherwise he will be swamped by slower cars on a gripper tyre off the line and the first five laps at least could be a nightmare.
That is the period where Verstappen needs to make it count. I’m pretty sure Verstappen can still do a one-stop race starting on softs and going to hards but if he needs to pit early and go to a two stop race then he can go soft, medium and with a late stop to softs again if required – which would also give him an opportunity to go for fastest lap.
He has all the options open to him whereas Hamilton has to go medium to hard to comply with the two compound regulations and hope that a one stop is adequate.
He could put softs on late in the race to match what Verstappen is doing but he would only be matching him with no advantage.
If it progresses, as we all hope, cleanly, then those last 10 laps are going to be a battle royal.
MATT BEER: Lewis Hamilton
Verstappen’s superb pole lap was a reminder of what a high level they’re both operating at and that either will be a deserving champion.
But given how often the pitstop undercut (which is easier to trigger from behind) gives a hugely powerful track position advantage, and how significant Mercedes’ straightline performance could be on the long back straight with DRS involved too, the Red Bull still feels like it’s in a very vulnerable position over a race distance.
EDD STRAW: Max Verstappen
Given the constant twists and turns of this season, when it comes to choosing the likely winner it’s still a coin toss.
But given Verstappen has pole position and the advantage of soft-tyre bite at the start, he has to be considered the marginal favourite.
In his ideal world, he will take the lead and control the race and it’s absolutely within his capabilities to do so.
Unless unexpected factors such as ill-timed safety cars complicate matters, but the race is well set up for Verstappen and Red Bull thanks to his brilliant qualifying performance.
JOSH SUTTILL: Lewis Hamilton
In reality, there’s very little separating the two title protagonists and I’m struggling to pick a winner just as much as I have throughout this enthralling season.
But this past triple-header has me believing Hamilton and Mercedes have the slight edge in the races and that – with the strategical offset between the two drivers – will be enough for Hamilton to overhaul Verstappen during the race and claim a record-smashing eighth crown.
