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Valtteri Bottas’s fifth place in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was Alfa Romeo’s best result in two-and-a-half years.
But it’s possible the team could have ended its near decade-long absence from the podium, had two key moments in the race not gone against it.
Bottas finished just six tenths of a second behind Mercedes driver George Russell having spent the closing laps trying unsuccessfully to pass him. McLaren driver Lando Norris was a further eight seconds up the road in third place.
Given Bottas lost the place to Russell on the first lap only as a result of hitting the back of Daniel Ricciardo’s McLaren after it collided with Carlos Sainz Ferrari, then lost around nine seconds to a problem in the pitstop, it’s reasonable to ask whether he really could have beaten Norris.
Despite the strong result, Bottas’s misfortune started during qualifying. Having reached Q3 easily, he suffered an exhaust problem that not only forced him to pull over but also led to the team rebuilding the car around the spare chassis.
That was a big task given the spare wasn’t ‘dressed’ with suspension components in advance and it led to Bottas missing FP2.
“We saw on that lap that we had an issue on the exhaust system and just to avoid causing further damage, we decided to stop the car on track,” said Alfa Romeo head of trackside engineering Xevi Pujolar.
“From outside, it didn’t look like the damage was so significant, but inside there were a lot of components that saw a very high temperature. That’s why we decided to change chassis.
“We had to change multiple components on the car that cost us FP2 because we were not ready. But despite that, it was a very strong performance in the sprint and an even better performance in the race so we could recover well.”
Bottas finished the sprint in seventh, but only after dropping from eighth on the grid down to 10th at the start. He therefore had to pass Sebastian Vettel, Fernando Alonso and Kevin Magnussen to recover.
He made a better start in the grand prix itself and was seventh into Tamburello, albeit with Kevin Magnussen’s Haas alongside, when Ricciardo hit Sainz. That led to Bottas hitting the rear of the McLaren – escaping damage to the nose despite the size of the impact.
“Initially, I was worried because it was a decent impact,” said Bottas. “But luckily, maybe I hit him at the right angle.
“Suddenly, I had Sainz coming sideways across the track as Ricciardo hit him and I had no time to react, so I just hit them.
“I was actually quite surprised I could carry on pretty well.”
The team confirmed there was no damage through a combination of data and visual inspections, but there was still a cost to the incident. Not only did it ensure Magnussen got ahead, but it also allowed Russell – who had made a good start from 11th – to jump Bottas. That left the Alfa Romeo running seventh rather than in what could have been sixth place had he got around the Sainz/Ricciardo collision.
This was therefore a key moment in his race as it ensured he was behind Russell, who was still ahead at the chequered flag.
Bottas ran seventh until he passed Magnussen, who Russell had got ahead of, on lap 12. He retained that sixth place after pitting on lap 18 along with the majority of the field.
Bottas was 1.2s behind Russell at the point he pitted but when he returned to the track he was over 11s behind having been in the pitlane nine seconds longer thanks to a cross-threaded front-right wheelnut.
“At the pitstop we had a problem with the right-front,” said Pujolar. “Initially, a crossthread but we could recover that.
“And then we were able to secure the wheelnut properly.”
Initially, Russell pulled away with the gap growing to 13.266s at the end of lap 26. At that point, Bottas started to close the gap.
From laps 27-51, Bottas gained an average of 0.451s per lap on Russell to close to within a couple of seconds of him. At that point, he was contained by the pace of the Mercedes, but didn’t get into DRS range until the end of lap 57.
Ultimately, Bottas couldn’t pass Russell. Had he not lost time in the pitstop, he would have been able to attack him far earlier and with more time could well have passed him.
“We didn’t lose any position but we lost the gap to Russell,” said Pujolar of the consequences of the slow pitstop.
“For sure, we would have been closer to Russell and Norris and could have challenged them.
“The question mark is when you are in traffic, what happens with your right front? In free air, we were very strong and able to manage the tyres while keeping a good pace.
“If you fight all the way, we could probably get a better position but you can also damage the fronts more.
“I don’t know. I’m happy with the result that we have got. Next time, we’ll push for more but at the moment we take the P5.”
From laps 27 to 54, when Bottas was in free air and chasing down Russell, he was on average 0.396s quicker than Norris and closed to be just 7.5s behind.
Pujolar is right to point out that changing the relative track positions would have had potential downsides as well as advantages. But perhaps the most interesting question of the race is whether Bottas really was faster than Norris.
There were two ways for Bottas to be ahead of Russell in time at least to have the chance to close on the McLaren – either not fall behind him on lap one as a result of the Tamburello incident, or avoid the pitstop problem and dispatch Russell more quickly.
But were Bottas to be ahead of Russell, that doesn’t mean he necessarily would have caught Norris, let alone pass him. It’s impossible to be sure of is how a battle between Bottas and Norris would have played out. But what we can be certain of is that when Bottas was catching Russell in free air he had a strong incentive to gain time, whereas Norris simply had to consolidate his strong position.
As the McLaren driver had that position – fourth for much of the race then third after Leclerc’s mistake and subsequent pitstop – sewn up, he was able to manage his pace and simply monitor the gap to Russell. He finished almost eight seconds ahead of the Mercedes driver but it could likely have been more.
“A few good things [happened] throughout this race,” said Norris.
“An amazing start to be ahead of the Ferraris, to stay out of the chaos which happened behind.
“Just a lonely but a great race, just managing the gap to George, looking after the tyres for the whole stint.”
He certainly had more pace in hand, but whether it would have been enough to keep Bottas at bay throughout the second stint – or even the first had Bottas not slipped behind Russell on the first lap – is the big question. Doubly so given had he pushed harder, he would have worked the tyres more.
What’s more, had Bottas had to pass Russell after the second stops, how long would it have taken and at what cost to his tyres? There were many potential complications for Bottas in this hypothetical pursuit of Norris, who would have been able to manage the race as he wanted.
It would certainly have been interesting. But it’s an indication of how much stronger Alfa Romeo is in 2022 given discussions about results narrowly missed over the past couple of seasons usually focused on missing even breaking into the points, not wondering if a podium had slipped away.
