After six days of pre-season testing and months of anticipation, Formula 1’s new era finally dawns this weekend with the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix.
The weekend will finally begin to answer some of the biggest questions and reveal the first taste of what F1’s new cars can deliver.
But before we get our first concrete answers to the true 2022 pecking order, we’ve asked our writers to use their experience and impressions from testing to deliver their predictions for the 23-race season ahead.
Who will be champion?
Scott Mitchell: Do I have to…? I don’t know because there are so many unknowns… Lewis Hamilton or Max Verstappen for the drivers’ title.
If Mercedes fights for wins it will win the constructors’. If it’s limited for too long then I think Ferrari’s line-up will outscore Red Bull’s (if their cars are equal). Too many ifs!
Valentin Khorounzhiy: I’m expecting a Sebastian Vettel 2011-, Marc Marquez 2014-style second title by Verstappen built on a spell of early-season dominance. And one for Red Bull, too.
Edd Straw: You can only go by the form book based on testing, which right now favours Red Bull. So Verstappen has to be the tip for the drivers’ championship. But Mercedes will come on strong, so why not a repeat of last year with it taking the constructors’ crown?
Mark Hughes: Verstappen the drivers’, Mercedes the constructors’. Because George Russell is going to score a whole load of points.
Matt Beer: I always end up going optimistic/good storyline in this kind of feature, so let’s say Charles Leclerc and Ferrari. Can definitely see Ferrari winning the constructors’ regardless of whether it’s the outright pacesetter or not, given how strong its driver line-up is.
Josh Suttill: Verstappen and Mercedes. Everything is changing for 2022 but Red Bull and Verstappen will still be the combination to beat. George Russell will be far more effective than Sergio Perez and will deliver Mercedes its ninth successive title but Verstappen will once again prevail over Hamilton in the drivers’ race.
Glenn Freeman: Verstappen. Great drivers get even better once they have a first championship under their belt. But I can see the strength of Hamilton/Russell giving Mercedes another constructors’ title.
Where will Mercedes finish?
Glenn Freeman: Constructors’ champion again. Hamilton and Russell will give Mercedes the edge over a Red Bull line-up that has a weaker second driver.
Mark Hughes: First.
Scott Mitchell: Depends on whether the porpoising can be controlled without costing performance. If it can, then champion. If it can’t, then second or third.
Matt Beer: Second in the constructors’, and Hamilton will still find a way to be in drivers’ championship contention.
Josh Suttill: First with the best driver line-up on the grid (just) and a car that has the potential to be the quickest once Mercedes irons out the problems with it.
Edd Straw: It could be anywhere between first and fourth based on testing, but a recovery seems likely. With a strong driver line-up, there’s every possibility of another constructors’ championship title and it would be a surprise if its drivers didn’t have the chance to be title contenders – even if that form isn’t shown in Bahrain.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: Second, I feel. And I definitely expect a stretch where its car is the best in the field, just maybe not a stretch long enough to turn the tide of the title battle.
How many races will Russell win?
Edd Straw: Assuming the Mercedes does emerge as a race-winning car early in the season, four. That can be downscaled depending on how long it takes Mercedes to sort out the W13! He’ll show well, Hamilton will have the edge on wins and points this year.
Josh Suttill: I can see Russell winning five or six races and matching up very well against Hamilton. He’ll fall short of Hamilton’s final points total but he won’t be far off.
Glenn Freeman: Am I allowed to say ‘some’?! He’ll win multiple races, maybe as many as five. And his peaks will be high enough that he’ll take points away from Hamilton’s forlorn chase of Verstappen in the championship.
Scott Mitchell: If the Mercedes can fight for wins I’d expect Russell to at least get a couple. It depends on the ultimate competitiveness of the cars and the competition. But I think he’ll do better than Valtteri Bottas did.
Matt Beer: I’m definitely not a Russell sceptic, but I also wouldn’t underestimate what a change and step up in pressure the move into a team that expects title bids and with Hamilton as a team-mate will be. So I’m going for a modest two race wins and a year of being generally overshadowed by his team-mate, with much more to come in the future.
Mark Hughes: Six or seven, about the same as Hamilton and Verstappen.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: Three. He’s a qualifying demon capable of spectacular peaks, so even if Hamilton remains unrivalled over a race distance, that should buy Russell enough opportunities to stand on the top step.
How many teams will win races?
Matt Beer: Five. Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes on straight merit, then on the basis of how 2020 and ’21 have gone I’m convinced there will be a couple of random days of madness where others sneak in. McLaren and Aston Martin are my picks for those.
Glenn Freeman: Red Bull. Mercedes. Ferrari. There are no more excuses for Ferrari now, this is the year it has to perform like the big team it is once again.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: Four – Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, any other one. The thing about having Ferrari be good again is that it greatly decreases the potential for shock winners – but there’s too many races for there not to be at least one.
Scott Mitchell: Three – Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari.
Edd Straw: Pre-season is a time for optimism so let’s go bold. Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren initially look to be the top four so perhaps at least one win for each. Doubtless there will be a race like Monza 2020 or Hungaroring 2021 where someone in the mid-pack gets a chance so let’s go for AlphaTauri thanks to another unexpected Pierre Gasly drive.
Josh Suttill: Three. Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. There will be little leftover scraps for the rest, though I expect McLaren will come close.
Mark Hughes: Five: Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Alpine.
Who will have the better year, Alonso or Vettel?
Mark Hughes: Alonso. I think he’s bought into proving to himself – and to the world – that he’s as good as he ever was. I don’t think Seb has the same need to do that.
Scott Mitchell: Alonso will have the better year as an individual driver but Vettel will get the better results because Aston Martin will have a stronger package.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: Alonso. He is simply in better form as an F1 driver.
Matt Beer: Alonso – even if Vettel has the better car. My admiration for Vettel as a human being goes up and up, and he’s still capable of great things occasionally, but Alonso feels like he’s operating at a consistently higher level.
Josh Suttill: Alonso is probably in the better form but I reckon Aston Martin will have a superior package to Alpine that will allow Vettel to finish ahead of his ex-title rival.
Glenn Freeman: I fear Alpine will let Alonso down more than Aston Martin will Vettel. But we could still be saying goodbye to both of them at the end of the year.
Edd Straw: In terms of points, it’s hard to say. But in terms of performance relative to the machinery, Alonso. He’s motivated, showed last year he’s still got it and will be determined either to drag Alpine forward or put himself in the shop window for an unlikely move up the grid. Vettel still has it in him, but having predicted a full-on revival from him in each of the last two seasons and not been correct, it’s perhaps time to back someone else!
Who will be the most surprising intra-team duel victor?
Matt Beer: Would Mick Schumacher outpacing Kevin Magnussen count as a surprise? I think it probably would, given the excitement about Magnussen’s return. But Schumacher is getting better and better.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: I’m going to tentatively put forward Russell beating Hamilton as an answer, in that I see it as a relative long shot but not quite the impossibility that many may regard it as.
Mark Hughes: This is the year when Yuki Tsunoda steps it up and gives Pierre Gasly a hard time at AlphaTauri.
Scott Mitchell: McLaren but I don’t know which one. I think I have an idea how the rest will play out but have no idea about McLaren so that’s what will I guess by definition that will surprise me the most!
Edd Straw: Nicholas Latifi, not because he’s better than Alex Albon as Albon is fundamentally the quicker driver, but simply because Williams isn’t likely to end the season with a vast number of points. When that happens, points are an unreliable witness and Latifi should be consistent and perhaps get ahead thanks to picking up a big result on a day when there’s points on offer.
Josh Suttill: I reckon Yuki Tsunoda will beat Pierre Gasly quite a few times this year. It may not allow him to finish ahead in the championship but it will be enough to keep his seat and prevent Gasly’s stock from getting any higher.
Glenn Freeman: Russell outgunning Hamilton is very tempting to put here. But I’m going for Sainz finishing above Leclerc. Leclerc will still be the man to deliver Ferrari’s biggest highlights of the year, but in a season where Ferrari might only occasionally be a genuine victory contender, I can see Sainz putting together the more consistent season.
Which team will finish last?
Josh Suttill: While Albon was a solid replacement, Williams is really going to miss what George Russell brought to the team this year. Bottas will drag Alfa Romeo into the top 10 enough times to beat Williams and Haas now has a much-better driver line-up than it did this time two weeks ago. I fear – along with the team’s uninspiring testing pace – it will lead to Williams returning to the bottom spot.
Scott Mitchell: Harder to pick than the champion. As the lowest ranked teams in recent years you automatically reach for Alfa Romeo, Haas or Williams (which I fear is my pick, even if it will be an ultra-close fight!). But there could be a surprise if someone has badly dropped the ball.
Edd Straw: Alfa Romeo. Predicting who will be last is nigh-on impossible, especially given the midfield pack is so tight. But given Alfa Romeo in recent times has struggled to deliver results when it should have done, perhaps it will leave points on the board. But it could easily be well off the bottom of the table!
Glenn Freeman: Alfa Romeo. That team looks like it’s taken a disappointing step backwards, which is a huge shame for Bottas.
Valentin Khorounzhiy: Williams. Haas showed more in testing despite limited mileage, and Alfa has a driver in Bottas who is bound to capitalise on opportunities.
Mark Hughes: Oh, it’s a negative, but it’s probably Williams. I think they’ll have some high points though and will by no means by mired at the back.
Matt Beer: Alfa Romeo. But I can see this being very close-fought – not because a lot of teams are equally rubbish, but because so many teams are equally pretty good. We might see one of the most impressive last-place finishers ever with such a tight midfield.
