Laptimes suggest Mercedes and Ferrari could be an Italian GP threat

Barely more than a tenth and a half covered the top five fastest Formula 1 cars in second practice for the 2024 Italian Grand Prix, but no Red Bull featured in that picture thanks to the odd circumstances of FP2 at Monza.

Max Verstappen aborted his first attempt at a qualifying simulation on the soft C5 compound Pirellis at Monza and was prevented from trying again by Kevin Magnussen’s heavy crash at the second Lesmo.

That shunt curtailed running in the middle part of the session and forced most of the field to use the remaining 15 minutes for race runs.

Delays in the garage for George Russell and Sergio Perez at the start of the session - Russell while repairs were finished following Kimi Antonelli’s FP1 crash and Perez while Red Bull completed a precautionary gearbox change - meant those two were missing from the early medium tyre runs and also out of sync with their qualifying simulations.

Medium order

1 Leclerc 1m21.119s
2. Sainz 1m21.264s
3. Norris 1m21.605s
4. Verstappen 1m21.610s
5. Hamilton 1m21.641s
6. Perez 1m21.718s
7. Albon 1m21.770s
8. Piastri 1m21.808s
9. Gasly 1m21.819s
10. Hulkenberg 1m22.148s
11. Ocon 1m22.213s
12. Magnussen 1m22.317s
13. Tsunoda 1m22.327s
14. Alonso 1m22.353s
15. Bottas 1m22.393s
16. Colapinto 1m22.406s
17. Stroll 1m22.413s
18. Zhou 1m22.969s

The Ferraris had a chunky advantage over the rest over one lap on the C4 tyre, but almost half a second from Charles Leclerc to Lando Norris seems unrepresentative - even though the upgraded, low-downforce Ferrari looked very quick and well-balanced throughout Friday.

The qualifying simulations were much closer, just 0.154s covering the fastest five cars, but we have no idea how Red Bull fits into that picture thanks to Verstappen’s absence.

Perez and Russell both did out of sync qualifying runs while others were completing long runs, but they weren’t especially quick.

Soft order

1. Hamilton 1m20.738s
2. Norris 1m20.741s
3. Sainz 1m20.841s
4. Piastri 1m20.858s
5. Leclerc 1m20.892s
6. Russell 1m21.086s
7. Hulkenberg 1m21.140s
8. Ricciardo 1m21.300s
9. Alonso 1m21.316s
10. Stroll 1m21.363s
11. Bottas 1m21.461s
12. Magnussen 1m21.499s
13. Albon 1m21.592s
14. Perez 1m21.678s
15. Tsunoda 1m21.735s
16. Colapinto 1m21.784s
17. Ocon 1m21.867s
18. Zhou 1m22.223s

When it came to the race runs on the medium (C4) compound tyre, Ferrari slipped to the back of the leading group with Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes leading the way by a couple of tenths from Verstappen’s Red Bull.

Long runs on medium (C4) tyre

1. Hamilton 1m24.911 (6-lap average)
2. Russell 1m25.108s (6-lap average)
3. Verstappen 1m25.163s (7-lap average)
4. Piastri 1m25.166s (7-lap average)
5. Leclerc 1m25.180s (6-lap average)
6. Norris 1m25.190s (7-lap average)
7. Sainz 1m25.303s (7-lap average)

There was pretty much nothing to choose between Verstappen and Oscar Piastri’s McLaren over a seven-lap average.

It would appear the non-McLaren frontrunners are as expected better off on this simpler track with its predominance of short corners and emphasis on straightline speed and aerodynamic efficiency.

But even though McLaren in low-downforce trim isn’t likely to be streaking off into the distance as it did at high-downforce Zandvoort, its pace so far around a Monza circuit with its new surface and modified kerbs suggests it will be right in the mix.

We can also probably expect a much stronger Mercedes and Ferrari threat on the evidence we've seen so far.