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Two driver market deals either side of the Formula 1 summer break have moved a convoluted silly season towards its conclusion, and left the fledgling Audi works team with a clear choice.
Carlos Sainz went into August with a new Williams contract in his pocket and, ahead of this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix, Alpine has as expected promoted Jack Doohan to a race seat after missing out on Sainz.
That filled two of the remaining gaps on the 2025 grid. As Esteban Ocon signed for Haas ahead of the summer break as well, another way to put it is that every option Valtteri Bottas had to stay in F1 has disappeared: unless he can get a new contract with his current employer.
Bottas staying with Sauber, which Audi is in the process of taking over 100% ownership of, looked like a long shot not that long ago. He has never been first choice for anyone during this long-winded silly season, always been behind Sainz everywhere, and been even further down the pecking order at some teams, like Alpine and even Sauber - at least under its previous management.
But a major change in July, with project leaders Andreas Seidl and Oliver Hoffmann getting the axe and ex-Ferrari boss Mattia Binotto coming in to take charge at Sauber instead, has reset the board.
Bottas had talks with Binotto after the Belgian Grand Prix a month ago, and this week before the Dutch GP at Zandvoort. "It seems like he's got respect for me, I've got respect for him, which is a good starting point for the discussions," said Bottas.
Even before the Doohan news was made official on Friday at Zandvoort, Bottas knew he was facing an 'Audi or bust' scenario to save his F1 career. Williams was gone, he was aware which way Alpine was leaning, and he himself seemed to have cooled on going to Renault's works team as well, with that programme in a state of flux given the expected closure of its engine programme and persistent rumours it will eventually be sold.
Bottas said he had "probably bigger chances now" of re-signing with Sauber. Which is partly because other options for the team have gone elsewhere, partly because other options for himself have disappeared, and partly because the management has changed. He insists his priority has been to be part of Audi "since the announcement of the brand coming to Formula 1" - the implication being that the apparent cooling of his relationship with the team was not his doing, or his choice, at all.
"I've always shown my interest in that project," said Bottas on Thursday. And the reality is that while Seidl's Sauber didn't seem to have any real interest in keeping Bottas - and Bottas was unconvinced by the direction it was heading in anyway - Binotto's arrival has reopened the door and given Bottas more belief in the project itself.
"It did feel for the last six months or so that I wasn't the top priority," said Bottas.
"There was one signing before me and obviously the team and the management looking through all the options, with sometimes quite little communication.
"But now it feels a bit different. There was a clear reset. Now there's a clear structure at the top, who's doing what, and I think that's positive going forward.
"Mattia comes from a team that has been super successful, he knows well what a good team really needs. I think it's good for the future of this team."
He also implied he had been kept in the dark about some of Audi's off-track developments in recent times, and has gained some clarity through Binotto: "The more I learn about the Audi project, their investments and what they have been actually doing, in the recent years, which I've now in the last two weeks learned a bit more, that makes me definitely more and more confident that it's going to be a successful project sooner or later.”
The upshot is Bottas sounds enthusiastic about staying again, and "would imagine I should be in a strong position" - unless Binotto and Audi want to go in a different direction. But that would appear to require a left-field choice, and a gamble of some description.
There are no convincing, experienced alternatives to Bottas on the market. That might change if Red Bull drops Sergio Perez but a driver who will turn 35 next season, fresh from the axe, might not represent much of an upside - even if he would be expected to improve on his current form. Otherwise, Audi is picking from scraps: Bottas has battered current team-mate Zhou Guanyu this year, Kevin Magnussen has been dropped by Haas, likewise Logan Sargeant at Williams.
Mick Schumacher remains a contender, and Binotto knows him of old given his past Ferrari links. But Schumacher did not flourish in his two-year Haas stint even if that team was ultimately not the best environment for him. He would be a big risk after two years on the sidelines as a Mercedes reserve, even though he has kept racing outside F1 and done a decent job in the World Endurance Championship with Alpine.
Then the options move further into left field: a rookie. Sauber has its own protege Theo Pourchaire, the 2023 Formula 2 champion, but he has consistently been overlooked - presumably with good reason. Current Aston Martin reserve Felipe Drugovich, who won the 2022 F2 title, continues to hope for an F1 chance and brings some financial backing.
Interestingly, ex-F2 driver Robert Shwartzman has been picked up by Sauber for Friday practice this weekend. Binotto knows him very well and is believed to think highly of his work as a simulator driver at Ferrari. While an evaluation for a race seat cannot be ruled out right now, it is more likely a chance to get a taste of the car in reality, then perform a development role for Sauber as he did for Binotto at Ferrari.
Whichever name you pick from the hat, they are not being judged for this seat purely on their own merits. When a driver of Bottas's calibre - the fourth most successful on the current grid in terms of wins - is still available, still motivated, and still performing well, they represent a good benchmark that none of the left-field choices can guarantee they measure up to.
That's what makes them left-field choices, and what leaves Bottas confident of securing a renewal before the end of September.
