It’s November 2020, and runaway world championship leader Lewis Hamilton doesn’t have a 2021 Formula 1 deal.
For most of the season all the talk has been that it’s simply a matter of Hamilton and Mercedes wanting to stay together, and just waiting for the right time to agree the fine details of a new contract.
But with the clock ticking and Hamilton openly saying at Imola that there are “no guarantees” he’ll be in F1 next year, is there something else going on?
Here are our F1 writers’ theories for what’s happening behind the scenes.
Lewis and Toto are a package deal
Scott Mitchell
It’s weird that we’re in November and the world champion still doesn’t have a contract in place next year. That wouldn’t be the case if there wasn’t something up. It doesn’t mean that Hamilton’s poised to walk away, it doesn’t mean that there’s been a big falling out behind the scenes, but it means that something hasn’t quite been reconciled. Even if it’s as basic as ‘do you want to talk about this right now?’.
I think it’s tied to what Toto does next as well. What Toto’s role exactly is going to be and who his successor is going to be and what that plan is – does that successor take over straightaway, does there need to be some kind of handover period, will Toto be at most races still next year, does Lewis believe that they’re going to make the right decision?
I do wonder if Hamilton’s and Wolff’s fates are intertwined. Maybe there’s a little bit of Lewis holding out because it suits him to see exactly what Mercedes have to offer, and it also helps Toto a little bit if Toto can go to Daimler and say, ‘Lewis wants to drive for me’ – that gives Toto a very strong hand to play.
I’m not saying they are in cahoots to strongarm Daimler into mega deals! But it just makes sense for everything to be resolved as one. I don’t think one gets resolved quickly without the other, and I think it just needs a bit of time for all that to play out properly.
Just one more year
Mark Hughes
It’s more than just ‘we haven’t got around to it’. The fact that Lewis offered up ‘It isn’t even certain I’ll be there next year’ when asked about whether Toto Wolff would still be leading the Mercedes team then. A follow-up question gave him ample opportunity to put out the fire he’d just lit – but he just added a bit more fuel. He’s recently said that he fully expects to be there next year, but isn’t sure for how long after that.
Toto has recently said they don’t want to just sign Lewis to a one-year deal. So, maybe Lewis wants only commit for one year but Mercedes isn’t offering that – and so there’s a stand-off.
If I had to bet, Hamilton will be racing for Mercedes next year, trying for that eighth title. But, assuming he succeeds, what after that? Something else.
A risky situation for Mercedes
Edd Straw
Regardless of the exact reasons for the delay to getting a deal to keep Hamilton with the team signed, sealed and delivered, there will be a reason for it beyond simply not getting round to it. Trust and goodwill are all well and good, but Hamilton is one of the key pillars of the Mercedes dominance and it is not good practice to have any kind of contractual question mark so close to the end of his current deal.
Almost certainly, it will all be worked out and the intent on both sides to continue shouldn’t be doubted, but at a time when everyone is rightly lauding the Mercedes team’s incredible achievement of seven consecutive constructors’ championship, it’s worth remembering that this is exactly the sort of thing that can sew the seeds for the fall of an empire. Until everything is set in stone, there is always the risk that whatever the various games of brinkmanship and the powerplays that may or may not be going on in the background could backfire.
Right now, F1’s pre-eminent team does not have a lead driver and team principal formally in place for 2021. This is exactly the kind of uncomfortable question mark that should not be left hanging and needs to be eliminated as soon as possible. This is a Mercedes team that leaves nothing to chance and it would be careless if it were to be derailed by this situation somehow turning sour.
